Renewable hotties

With the announcement of a Carbon Pricing policy by the Government recently, combined with the formation of ARENA, a $3.2 billion agency to consolidate renewable energy industry support and given that the purpose of MacroBusiness is to give you the bigger picture, here is a (non-exhaustive) list and short summaries of renewable energy companies that

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Chinese inflation decoded

As we know, Chinese inflation further accelerated in June.  The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.4% compared to a year ago, vs. 5.5% in May.  This is slightly above consensus estimate of 6.3%. Less well understood, however, is how significant food prices are in this equation. Looking at prices in different categories, food prices inflation


Something for everyone

I’m glad we finally have a carbon price. My guess is that the roll out of the tax will be less contentious than currently appears. The leader of the opposition may want a referendum on the issue but in my view, but once it’s in place, the tax will give way to famous Australian pragmatism


Blame the lenders

Exclusively from Michael Pettis’ newsletter: Over the past two years we have become pretty used to the spectacle of Chinese government officials warning the US about its responsibility to maintain the value of the huge amount of US treasury bonds the PBoC has accumulated. More recently we have been hearing complaints in Germany about the


Rethinking urban planning

This blog has dedicated significant effort questioning the axioms underpinning Australia’s urban planning system. This system has grown increasingly restrictive as urban growth boundaries (UGBs), minimum targets for ‘brownfield’ development (urban consolidation), up-front infrastructure charges, amongst other measures, have been implemented across jurisdictions since the late 1990s/early 2000s. These urban planning tools, affectionately known amongst


Carbon Price Announcement

OK, so I was surprised on the upside and the starting price is $23/t. The Greens have indeed exerted their influence through the negotiation and what has emerged is a surprisingly strong package, which when implemented will perhaps be the most comprehensive carbon scheme in the world. You can see the influence of the Garnaut


Weekend Musing: The People’s Budget

It’s the Saturday, which means its time for some CC and a weekend musing. Last weekend’s musing on the public expenditures of first-world governments produced a lot of interesting debate.  My premise was that current levels of spending on non-capital items – primarily welfare and healthcare – were increasing quicker than GDP.  Politics aside, the math


The Economy and the Environment

I’ve wandered off the reservation again this morning and am strolling around Carbon E Coyote’s turf  but I hope he doesn’t mind too much because as we Australians await the Prime Minister’s “Carbon Tax” announcement tomorrow I thought it is worth a quick post and link that is related to this issue.  It is important to note  I


Disastrous jobs report humbles a blogger

Once upon a time, a man who goes by the name of Rotten Apple wrote a post titled “The Bull Case for the US Economy“. Well, many moons have passed since then, but, to paraphrase Emperor Hirohito’s famous remark, in the meantime the economic situation has developed not necessarily to this humble blogger’s advantage. From


Australian Dollar Weekly Wrap

Gee whiz if your not a short term trader the Aussie would be driving you nuts at the moment, range bound as it is but without the strength to challenge the important levels up at 1.1013. From my point of view it remains my feeling that we have to test up there again eventually. During


AFG’s LVR revisions

As my readers would know I try to follow AFG’s loan reports every month. They claim to be a good leading indicator for the ABS data that doesn’t appear until 6 weeks later. I have however had a long term issue with their LVR data because it made absolutely no sense.  I posted about this


Is Trichet jawboning for a full union?

In light of the ECB rate rise yesterday the Wall Street Journal has a great article on the current perceived contradictory position held by the European Central Bank. The European Central Bank is trying to rescue the euro and keep a lid on inflation. It will find it can do one of these, but not both.


Trading Day: 8th July

The S&P/ASX 200 opened higher and has built on these gains from very positive leads from US overnight, and now after midday is up 47 points or 1% to 4652 points. Other Asian markets have similar gains, with the Nikkei 225 up 1% at 10170 points, and the Hang Seng up 1.17% at 22,794 points.


The bull case for the US economy

There are no shortage of reasons to worry about the state of the world economy today. An unsustainable bubble in China, the possibility of sovereign debt defaults in Europe, the chance that debt ceiling politics will derail the US economic recovery… And I could go on. Like many of the writers on MacroBusiness, I am


When to buy & sell housing

Fellow econblogger, Cameron Murray, has written another fascinating post on his Blog about the best time to buy and sell real estate. Cameron’s post is re-produced below for your reading pleasure. As always, comments are welcome. I came across the Commonwealth Bank – RP Data Home Buyers Index recently. It is designed to estimate the


Vitaliy Katsenelson: Why China will crash

In November 2010, I published a fascinating interview with Vitaliy Katsenelson – author of the Little Book of Sideways Markets (highly recommended), and teacher and Director of Research / Portfolio Manager at Investment Management Associates Inc, a money management firm based in Denver, Colorado. In this interview, Vitaliy provided possibly the best discussion of the


Charting the RBA

The RBA has released its monthly Chart Pack and like last month’s release, I’m going to have a look at this impressive data set for MacroBusiness readers. A warning, its chart heavy (obviously). The Chart Pack is divided into 16 categories, but let’s concentrate on a few, looking first at the economic “god” of GDP


ABS Employment Report analysis

The ABS employment report remained volatile in June with the headline increase of 23,400 jobs, which was ahead of market expectation of a rise of 15,000, consisting of a large swing between part time to full time employment. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in both seasonally adjusted and trend terms at 4.9%. while the trend


Some thoughts on soaring healthcare costs

In a previous post, I discussed how the soaring cost of healthcare in the US is the biggest reason for the long-term fiscal problems that the country faces. The Wall Street Journal has a front page story today that gives a perfect illustration of what is wrong with the system. Outside of heart attacks, doctors


Trading Day – 7th July

The S&P/ASX 200 opened lower and remained low until the ABS unemployment figures were released at 11.30, and now after midday is up slightly, 2 points or 0.05% to 4607 points. Other Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei 225 losing 0.1% at 10072 points, and the Hang Seng up 0.4% at 22,599 points. Other


Local bulls vs foreign bears

On Friday, Bloomberg published an article entitled Australia’s home price plunge pits local bank bulls against foreign bears. The article nicely summarises the conflicting views about the Australian residential property market, with foreigner’s pessimism largely tempered by the local bank economist’s rose coloured outlook: Australian home prices in 2011 have fallen the most in three


What will the starting carbon price be?

A month or so ago I suggested that there was “a deal to be done”. It sounds this week that it’s pretty close if not already done. A few people have asked me where I think the starting carbon price will be, so I thought I’d make a prediction. My money’s on a starting price


MacroBusiness Mailbag

One problem we have at MacroBusiness is that all our bloggers have day jobs. We would love to be doing this full-time but obviously we have to pay for our existence and also like to spend time with our families. There are a number of topics that I would love to concentrate on full time and


Trading Day 6th July

The S&P/ASX 200 opened slightly lower and has remained steady throughout the trading day and is right on 4600 points just after midday after weak leads from Europe and the US overnight. Other Asian markets are also mixed, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.15% at 9988 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.4% at 22,656


Charting 101

My day job as a trader is to evaluate charts as the visual representation in the change in prices, or as my investing partner call’s it, “tea leaf” reading. Charting is just measurement of past prices, not a prediction of future results (I leave that to the economists) and I’ve seen many charts used by