Why macroprudential mortgage curbs are harder this time around

Several commentators have questioned the efficacy of Australian financial regulators imposing macroprudential mortgage curbs, arguing that it would disproportionately harm first home buyers (FHBs) who tend to take out larger mortgages with smaller deposits: Alison Pennington, senior economist at the Australia Institute’s Centre For Future Work, claims macro-prudential tightening “would have unequal and unfair consequences

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How far does the stocks boom get?

Let’s pick up the ongoing debate over what kind of market cycle this is. Readers will know I have been juggling three narratives to explain the ongoing market boom as it confronts an economic boom: Bad news is good news meaning the ongoing deflation (after a brief spike) will ensure asset prices outperform the economy.


Auction results strong again

CoreLogic has released its preliminary auction results for the weekend, which reported a clearance rate of 79.9% off 1,879 auctions. This was up on the 79.4% preliminary figure recorded last week, which was later revised down to 77.1% at final collection. Sydney continued to lead the way recording a preliminary clearance rate of 82.8% off


As CCP China turns Nazi Germany, what of the Olympics?

There have not been many who have dared make the comparison between CCP China and Nazi Germany. Both are fascist states governed economically by central planning. Both rely upon ethnic eugenics for political legitimacy. Both are incrementally expansionist to attack competing liberal democracies. Both use powerful economies to buy off and silence opponents. Both are


Links 12 April 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Market Value Of Cryptocurrency Exceeds 2 Trillion U.S. Dollars – Global Trends The zombie company problem and what it means for our economies – The Conversation Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined – CNBC Partisan politics


Weekend Links: 10-11 April, 2021

‘Stony Rises, Lake Corrangamite’ 1857, Eugene Von Guerard, Art Gallery of South Australia   Global Macro Prince Philip has died aged 99, Buckingham Palace announces – BBC A taxing question for multinationals leaves stocks unscathed – Reuters Global supply lines struggle to clear container backlog after Suez chaos – Reuters US sanctions Chinese computer makers


MB Fund Podcast: Boom or bust for the Australian dollar?

Will the Australian Dollar (AUD) continue to climb in 2021? In today’s investment webinar, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith, Head of Investments Damien Klassen, and Head of Advice Tim Fuller discuss where next for the Australian dollar. On the agenda: Global and Australian growth Interest rate differentials Investor sentiment and technicals The relative


Universities’ latest international students plan threatens Australia

The Victorian Government’s revised hotel quarantine program resumed yesterday after being paused for five months last year following the destructive second wave outbreak and again from mid-February after virus again leaked into the community prompting another hard lockdown. Thus, after being closed for roughly half the time since its inception in late March 2020 after


Will the US fiscal cliff crash markets?

We have noted a few times recently that the US economy faces a hiccup later this year and early next as its fiscal stimulus growth pulse crashes with year-on-year comparisons. This goes to the often overlooked fact that when it comes to GDP growth inputs, it is the rate of change in spending that matters


RBA does the retail property bleed out

From the RBA today: The pandemic has accelerated structural change and so has added to strains for retail commercial property Retail commercial property in Australia was already facing a challenging environment prior to the pandemic. The margins of retailers, particularly bricks-and-mortar retailers for discretionary goods, were being compressed by intense competition from both large international


Downer: Abandoned overseas Aussies an “outrage”

This is something that I just can’t understand. Both from the perspective of the Morrison Government’s most sacred responsibility and the lassitude in Australians generally. Why have Australia’s 40k overseas citizens been so readily abandoned to their pandemic fates? It raises the question what is the point of “Australia” at all? Alexander Downer takes up


Peak coal points way for peak oil

TS Lombard with sounds analysis: Until not that long ago, the idea was still taken seriously that peak oil would be supply-side driven and triggered by sky-high prices: but as it is now clear that the oil case will resemble all previous energy transitions, useful lessons may be had from the most recent such precedent–peak


Eminent global scientists demand proper probe into COVID origins

An open letter from a global coalition of eminent global scientists: Reaction to the China-WHO joint study team report CoV-2 origin hypotheses.”Having read the report entitled‘WHO-convenedGlobalStudy of Origins of SARS-CoV-2: China part’ and reviewed the statements made in the March 30, 2021 WHO-organized press event announcing the report’s release, we have regrettably concluded that our


All-time highs for property in east. West not so much

Via CoreLogic: Low mortgage rates, a swift economic recovery, which has spurred consumer sentiment, and low listing volumes have catapulted national housing values to new record highs. At the end of March, the CoreLogic national home value index increased a further 2.8%, placing values 5.6% above the previous market peak in October 2017. The combined value of


The Strayan Exclusive! Morrison to rebadge Asprin as COVID vaccine

Sir Fomo McSpruikerson is an expatriate billionaire and proud proprietor of The Strayan, a vanity media project designed to boost his assets. Exclusive: Morrison Government to rebadge Asprin as COVID vaccine Australia’s flagging COVID vaccination plan received a welcome boost today when Health Minister Greg Hunt announced that the Department of Health would immediately move


Ardern reforms to slash 20% from NZ property

Jacinda Ardern was partly elected to address house price inflation. Instead, her first term delivered spiraling prices. Fed up, this year the Ardern Government has dropped a series of draconian measures on property markets including: Adding house prices to the RBNZ mandate. Negative gearing and deductibility of mortgage costs against property investments will be phased


Morrison should call the White House

With crisis comes opportunity. The Morrison Government’s collapsed vaccination program is a big one. Solutions are being posed: Chief Health Officer says the Government is mulling a deal with Moderna. Domain is calling on the Government to cough up big to get more Pfizer. Recalling that Israel secured its early advantage by paying double. I


Roy Morgan unemployment drops to 12-month low

Roy Morgan Research has released its labour force estimates for March 2021, which reports that the number of Australians employed (12.75 million) has returned to its pre-COVID level in early March 2020. Australia’s unemployment rate also fell to 11.4%, which was the lowest level since early March 2020. Whereas underemployment (7.6%) in March 2021 was


Morrison Government vaccine rollout all but collapses

God, what a schmozzle. After PM Morrison yesterday reassured Australians that there was no reason to suspend the Astra Zeneca vaccine, the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) has come down with recommendations of the complete opposite: 4-6 people per million will suffer thrombosis triggered by the AZ vaccine. ATAGI has recommended that the