Latest posts

17

Melburnians granted minor lockdown reprieve

Victorian Premier Dan Andrews has today announced some modest easing of restrictions for Melburnians, namely: Outdoor gatherings will be allowed. But it’ll depend on your vaccine level — those with no vaccine or one dose: limited to groups of two. Fully vaccinated: groups of five (but from two households) An increase of the radius for

6

Delta spews ABS jobs numberwang

As already reported, Australia’s unemployment rate fell 0.1% in August to 4.5% – the lowest reading since December 2008: However. total jobs fell by 146,300 to 13,022,600 people in August, with full-time jobs falling 68,000 and part-time jobs falling 78,200: The reason why the unemployment rate fell despite the heavy loss of jobs is because

11

The disastrous Fortescue chart

A quick note on a few FMG points as iron ore continues to fall. Dalian today: First, what a horrible chart FMG has with an immense double top: How far FMG corrects obviously depends upon the iron ore price. My best guess is we’re going back to $60 over the next six months, with a

10

RBA passes housing affordability baton back to government

Twice over the past two days, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has pointed the finger at the federal government for Australia’s housing affordability problems. Speaking in an address to the Anika Foundation on Tuesday, governor Phil Lowe pointed to a number of public policy issues, which are the responsibility of the Government, that need

0

New home sales solid post stimulus

The HIA has released new home sales data for August, which rose 5.8% over the month and continues to track at a solid level following the expiry of the HomeBuilder subsidy in March: “The strength in New Home Sales in recent months indicates that the boom in detached home building will continue to create strong

4

CBA: Household income surges in lockdown states

By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA: Key Points: CBA data indicates the increase in government payments via the “COVID‑19 disaster payment” to households in lockdown states has been bigger than the fall in wages and salaries. Our partial read of household income, which comprises wages & salaries plus government benefit payments, is

36

Evergrande defaults

Evergrande defaults: Chinese authorities have told major lenders to China Evergrande Group not to expect interest payments due next week on bank loans, according to people familiar with the matter, taking the cash-strapped developer a step closer to one of the nation’s biggest debt restructurings. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development told banks in

46

Victoria records outbreak high 514 COVID cases

Victorian has recorded another 514 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours – a new outbreak high: Reported yesterday: 514 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas. – 41,758 vaccines administered – 61,961 test results received More later: https://t.co/OCCFTAtS1P#COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData [1/2] pic.twitter.com/AV5ugLP8J6 — VicGovDH (@VicGovDH) September 15, 2021 Most are mystery cases.

3

Macro Morning

It’s risk back on as the latest US industrial production print slightly missed expectations, but this was enough of a catalyst to get things moving again after nearly two weeks of uncertainty on Wall Street. Bond yields rose slightly while the USD fell back mainly against Yen as the other risk currencies still remain in

174

Australia goes nuclear

The MSM is always pretty slow on the uptake but some days you have to wonder if they’re dropping Mogadon. To wit: Australia is embarking on its most significant change of defence and strategic direction in decades, aiming to make the Navy’s next submarine fleet nuclear-powered. In a deal announced by US President Joe Biden,

8

“Stay away from the Australian dollar”

My charts are still down today. DXY and AUD were basically stable. Oil took off and Treasuries were hit. Stocks loved it all. Here’s Credit Suisse with an outlook that I agree with: Last week’s ECB meeting saw the market’s core expectation–a PEPP “taper” accompanied by a commitment to longer-term asset purchases / dovishness–easily met,

24

Do vaccine mandates help or hinder recovery?

Do vaccine mandates help or hinder recovery? In the case of the US, both, according to Goldman: Last week, President Biden announced vaccine requirements for 100mnworkers, with mandates for all federal employees and most healthcare workers, and a vaccine or testing requirement for all workers at large private firms with100+ employees. We estimate that the

7

NSW planning minister shreds fake affordability inquiry

NSW planning minister Rob Stokes is the latest to call out the federal government’s bogus housing affordability inquiry: Federal politicians, developers, economists and large sections of the media are quick to blame all our housing affordability woes on slow supply, slow state planning systems and stringent controls. But the idea that the planning system alone

21

Links 16 September 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: EV Battery Prices Risk Reversing Downward Trend as Metals Surge – Bloomberg Making supply chains more resilient – Bruegel El Salvador’s great crypto experiment – Bruegel Libor replacement reaches Wall Street’s leveraged loan market – FT Supply chain disruptions are not a new threat, and they’re not going away

74

Macro Afternoon

The selloff continues here in Asia as the fallout from the Evergrande collapse spreads throughout the region, with even Japanese stocks taking a tumble. The USD is firming once more against the risk currencies although gold is just holding above the $1800USD level, while Bitcoin has peaked again at just below the $47K level as

82

TikTok guy hosptialised with COVID

Be careful what you protest for: A TikTok comedian who shot to fame after he correctly predicted the daily Covid case numbers in NSW has joined his father fighting for life in hospital with the virus. Jon-Bernard Kairouz, 24, is in a Covid-19 ward at St George Hospital in Kogarah, Sydney’s south, multiple sources told

12

OECD calls for widespread tax reform

The OECD has released its 2021 Australian Economic Survey, which calls for widespread tax reforms to reduce the overreliance on personal income taxes: Tax reform is needed. Australia’s heavy reliance on taxation of personal incomes adds to the vulnerability of public finances to an ageing population. Fortunately, there is a clear path for tax reforms

9

OECD: Australia’s unemployment payments way too low

The OECD has released its 2021 Australian Economic Survey, which highlights that Australia’s unemployment payments are pitifully low and should be raised: Recently, the working-age unemployment benefit was raised by AUD50 per fortnight. However, the benefit for a single person in the first month of unemployment in Australia, at just 29% of the average wage,

4

Deloitte: Bleak times ahead for Australia’s job market

From Deloitte’s Weekly Economics Briefing: New payroll data indicates that Australia’s labour market has once again fallen from its perch, after an impressive recovery during the first half of the year. Released late last week, the ABS data revealed that total payroll jobs fell 3.5% between the week ending 19 June, before Sydney’s latest lockdown

9

Chinese old economy crash lands

Down she goes and where it stops nobody knows. Chinese August data is out. It is OK at the headline level but downright disastrous at the commodities level. Headline data all missed expectations. Year to date fixed asset investment was OK at 8.9%, industrial production good at 13.1% and retail sales at 19%. But when

5

Frydenberg transforms ASIC into corporate lapdog

Back in April, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg neutered ASIC by appointing former banking lawyer Joseph Longo as chairman of ASIC and directing him to support the economic recovery from the pandemic rather than enforcing financial system conduct: Frydenberg made it clear the direction of ASIC would be changing dramatically from the tougher stance foisted on it

6

Is China investable?

Obviously not. Unless you work at Goldman: In recent months, the Chinese government has embarked upon a regulatory tightening cycle unprecedented in terms of its duration, intensity, and scope. Regulations targeting specific sectors, including internet platforms, education and property markets, have wiped out more than $1tn of market cap from Chinese equities since their recent

2

Chinese house prices stall

Chinese new home prices are out and are stalling, up just 0.2% in August and 4.2% over the year: The majority of cities now have flat or falling prices: All tiers are slowing: Here’s the city-by-city: If the property developer bust sinks prices then all bets are off in China.