Via Westpac: The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board’s July monetary policy meeting provide some significant additional colour around the Bank’s current thinking. The main points of interest are: 1) a slightly more tentative tone around the outlook; 2) the reinstated line that the next cash rate move “would more likely be an increase than
Interest rate comparison website, RateCity, has estimated that Australian mortgage holders are facing sizeable increases in repayments on the back of out-of-cycle rate rises by lenders. From The Australian: …mortgage holders with loans of $500,000 would be hit with a bill for an extra $358 each year if their lender increased rates by 10 basis
By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its rental vacancy series for June, which revealed a 0.2% lift in the national vacancy rate over the month but a 0.2% decline over the year: Over the year, decreases in vacancies were recorded in Adelaide (-0.3%), Perth (-1.3%), Brisbane (-0.6%) and Canberra (-0.3%), whereas increases were
Iron ore prices for July 17, 2018: All prices are still running on the spot. The recent wave of Chinese data has lifted my expectations for the slow slowing of Chinese growth and thus bulk demand. Infrastructure is coming off hard: But it will be supported by OBOR exports. As well, housing prices and starts
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Jeff Bezos Becomes the Richest Man in Modern History, Topping $150 Billion – Bloomberg The Flattening Yield Curve – Medium Coinbase Says It Has Green Light to List Coins Deemed Securities – Bloomberg Netflix Plunges After Slowdown Threatens Highflier Status – Bloomberg Tech stocks contributed 98% of the S&P
As Trump trounces Europe and supports Russian hegemony, markets continue to run the concern thread over trade tensions, while pushing the hope barrow on stellar US corporate earnings to keep the whole risk edifice afloat. The Aussie and Kiwi dollar advanced against the USD on RBA optimism and higher inflation levels in New Zealand. The Shanghai
By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for June, which revealed a 0.9% seasonally adjusted monthly rise in the national median house price, with prices also up 5.2% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 1.3% in June, with prices up 6.6% year-on-year. Looking at the major
Hold your horses. The Chinese correction has a new entrant. June house prices are out today and there’s no disputing the emerging trend now. China has unleashed it property market as external pressures grow. June new house prices accelerated for the fourth straight month to a robust 1%: Tier one cities are still in check
By Leith van Onselen If you thought Sydney’s auction clearance rate was bad now, it’s going to get much worse in spring, according to SQM Research’s Louis Christopher, with annual price falls for Sydney “of at least 5%”: “It is going to be a very tough spring for sellers,” [Christopher] said. “Seasonally, we see more
By Leith van Onselen Audited performance data provided to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has revealed that the biggest superannuation fund operated by each of Australia’s four major banks, along with the largest super funds operated by AMP and IOOF, yielded total average annual returns of 2.1% to 3.1% cent in the decade to
From the RBA: Domestic Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the domestic economy by noting that GDP growth had picked up to be 3.1 per cent over the year to the March quarter, which was above estimates of trend growth. The quarterly growth rate of 1 per cent had been a little stronger than the Bank’s forecast of
From Martin North at Digital Finance Analytics: We have released the June 2018 edition of our household financial confidence index, which draws information from our rolling household surveys. In June the overall index fell once again to 89.7, well below the 100 neutral setting down from 90.2 last month. Looking at the results across the
By Leith van Onselen On Friday it was revealed that the Turnbull Government had appointed former Coalition insiders into key economic roles within the Australian public service, namely: appointment of former chief of staff to both Treasurers Peter Costello and Scott Morrison, Philip Gaetjens, to the secretary of the Australian Treasury; appointment of former chief of
By Leith van Onselen I have always found it irritating when interest groups like the Business Council of Australia complain about Australia’s uncompetitive wages and the need to cut penalty rates or the minimum wage, as well as slash company taxes, but conveniently refuse to address the egregious blow-out in CEO and senior management pay.
Via Reneweconomy: The Australian Energy Market Operator, in a ground-breaking study, has confirmed that the cheapest and smartest replacement for the country’s ageing coal capacity will be in solar, wind and storage technologies. In the long awaited release of its Integrated System Plan, AEMO says much of Australia’s coal capacity will retired by 2040 because
By Leith van Onselen Acadata has released its latest house price results for the UK, which shows that values in London have begun to rebound after a period of price falls, driven by the top-end of the market: Average prices in England and Wales were slightly down in June, falling by 0.2% from May, although
Via The Guardian: A substantial majority of voters want an inquiry into power prices and anti-competitive conduct by Australia’s energy retailers, and there is also community support for returning energy assets to public ownership, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. The survey of 1,014 respondents also suggests the contest between the major parties could be
By Leith van Onselen Former special adviser to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and New Zealand Treasury, Michael Reddell, has cited mass immigration as a prime cause of New Zealand’s weak productivity. From Interest.co.nz: For decades, New Zealand’s economic Achilles heel has been its low productivity… GDP per capita remained at just 0.1%
Booming output and sales for RIO’s second quarter production report: With autohaul on track (pardon the pun) it could easily add another 20mt. I expect it will next year as prices slip and the market share battle returns.
Definitely. At the AFR: Treasurer Scott Morrison has warned the deepening US tariff war with China could derail a global economy that has finally shaken off the effects of the financial crisis and has directly challenged Donald Trump’s view that countries can win trade wars. As the International Monetary Fund described the US as among
Via Australian Broker: More banks have increased interest rates as the pressure of increased funding costs continues to mount. Teachers Mutual Bank Limited (TMBL) announced new rates yesterday. TMBL includes three banks: Teachers Mutual Bank, UniBank and Firefighters Mutual Bank. TMBL announced changes to its fixed rates for new customers to the group’s brands. TMBL
By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has updated its rental vacancies time series for June, which reveals that Sydney’s rental vacancy rate has hit the highest level in the series’ 13.5 year history at 2.8%. Here’s how the raw data looks compared against the rest of the nation: And here’s the data presented in trend
DXY was soft last night. EUR and CNY stable: AUD was soft against developed markets: Weak against emerging markets: Gold is only hanging on: Oil was hammered 4% on rising Saudi supply. Brent looks very toppy: Base metals are in free fall: Miners were hit: EM stocks too: Junk did better: Treasuries were sold: Bunds
They are: Domestic gas reservation with quotas if necessary. This would crash the gas price to $5Gj and halve electricity prices, boosting household income and industrial competitiveness overnight, plus end the climate wars as gas took its place as the “transitional fuel”. Losses to the gas cartel and GDP would by tiny in context. Negative
By Leith van Onselen Following Liberal senator Dean Smith’s call yesterday for a wide-ranging Senate inquiry into Australia’s population policy, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hosed the idea, claiming the immigration system is delivering what’s needed: Malcolm Turnbull believes Australia’s immigration system is in great shape as he hosed down calls for a review of population policy… “We
Via the AFR: Westpac is set to rock the increasingly nervous property market by withdrawing new loan offers to self-managed superannuation funds looking to invest in property. …The move has shocked mortgage brokers and financial advisers, who act as intermediaries between borrowers and the banks, but complements a change in lending strategy the banks have
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday released its overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for May, which continued to show a trend rise in the number of inbound visitors, with Chinese arrivals hitting an all-time high. The number of short-term visitor arrivals fell a seasonal 10.4% in May in original terms,
Via The Australian: “What has happened in the past may just look like a storm in a teacup compared to what is coming,” said Nicholas Browne, Wood Mackenzie director for Asia-Pacific gas and LNG. With supply shortages forecast for east Australia from the early to mid 2020s “gas will need to be diverted from LNG
By Leith van Onselen When it comes to Australia’s immigration program, you would be hard pressed to find a bigger liar than Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. On Monday night, Turnbull again spun a web of lies over Australia’s migrant program on The Project (video above). Below are some key excerpts. Lisa Wilkinson: “We are about
Tianjin benchmark fell 50 cents to $63. Everything is more or less in equilibrium. Port stocks were flat on the week. Can the equilibrium hold? I don’t think so. Infrastructure is plummeting: It’s being offset by a bounce in realty and exports but for how long as credit tightens? By year end I expect
