Several commentators have questioned the efficacy of Australian financial regulators imposing macroprudential mortgage curbs, arguing that it would disproportionately harm first home buyers (FHBs) who tend to take out larger mortgages with smaller deposits: Alison Pennington, senior economist at the Australia Institute’s Centre For Future Work, claims macro-prudential tightening “would have unequal and unfair consequences
Let’s pick up the ongoing debate over what kind of market cycle this is. Readers will know I have been juggling three narratives to explain the ongoing market boom as it confronts an economic boom: Bad news is good news meaning the ongoing deflation (after a brief spike) will ensure asset prices outperform the economy.
CoreLogic has released its preliminary auction results for the weekend, which reported a clearance rate of 79.9% off 1,879 auctions. This was up on the 79.4% preliminary figure recorded last week, which was later revised down to 77.1% at final collection. Sydney continued to lead the way recording a preliminary clearance rate of 82.8% off
The ferrous complex was strong last week as Chinese steel prices soared on the back of the steel output cuts. This is the paradox of central planning aimed at lowering input prices. Less steel means higher prices and any lower need for iron ore is more than offset by a stronger impulse to restock raw
Australia’s vaccine debacle continues today. The latest leaderboard has us leapfrogging Lebanon and Sri Lanka closing in on the West Indies! But, if you’re a sinking prime minister, you can always manipulate the data: So, the starting point in the race is not when the gun goes off, it’s when you got up after falling
There have not been many who have dared make the comparison between CCP China and Nazi Germany. Both are fascist states governed economically by central planning. Both rely upon ethnic eugenics for political legitimacy. Both are incrementally expansionist to attack competing liberal democracies. Both use powerful economies to buy off and silence opponents. Both are
The Australian dollar broke into the 75s again Friday night before rebounding. DXY rebounded and EUR fell with all of the usual outcomes. To the charts. DXY versus EUR: The Australian dollar is forming new downtrends against all of the major forex pairs. Not a good sign: It is more mixed against EMs but even
Bill Evans at Westpac: …the loan approvals to investors account for around 32% of the total housing loans (including all owner occupiers) compared to 65% in 2017 when APRA introduced a range of controls aimed at curtailing investor activity. On the other hand the Bank points out the solid starting point that will support the
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Market Value Of Cryptocurrency Exceeds 2 Trillion U.S. Dollars – Global Trends The zombie company problem and what it means for our economies – The Conversation Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined – CNBC Partisan politics
‘Stony Rises, Lake Corrangamite’ 1857, Eugene Von Guerard, Art Gallery of South Australia Global Macro Prince Philip has died aged 99, Buckingham Palace announces – BBC A taxing question for multinationals leaves stocks unscathed – Reuters Global supply lines struggle to clear container backlog after Suez chaos – Reuters US sanctions Chinese computer makers
Aussie Dollar Euro Dollar Dollar Yen Gold Brent ASX200 S&P 500
Will the Australian Dollar (AUD) continue to climb in 2021? In today’s investment webinar, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith, Head of Investments Damien Klassen, and Head of Advice Tim Fuller discuss where next for the Australian dollar. On the agenda: Global and Australian growth Interest rate differentials Investor sentiment and technicals The relative
Desperate to appear to be doing something, the Morrison Government has moved quickly to do nothing. Its latest unsolution is for Australia’s gigantic 2021 vaccine supply hole: The Morrison Government has secured an additional 20m doses of Pfizer vaccine. Sadly, they won’t arrive until Q4 this year. The second point means that the new doses
The Victorian Government’s revised hotel quarantine program resumed yesterday after being paused for five months last year following the destructive second wave outbreak and again from mid-February after virus again leaked into the community prompting another hard lockdown. Thus, after being closed for roughly half the time since its inception in late March 2020 after
We have noted a few times recently that the US economy faces a hiccup later this year and early next as its fiscal stimulus growth pulse crashes with year-on-year comparisons. This goes to the often overlooked fact that when it comes to GDP growth inputs, it is the rate of change in spending that matters
From the RBA today: The pandemic has accelerated structural change and so has added to strains for retail commercial property Retail commercial property in Australia was already facing a challenging environment prior to the pandemic. The margins of retailers, particularly bricks-and-mortar retailers for discretionary goods, were being compressed by intense competition from both large international
This is something that I just can’t understand. Both from the perspective of the Morrison Government’s most sacred responsibility and the lassitude in Australians generally. Why have Australia’s 40k overseas citizens been so readily abandoned to their pandemic fates? It raises the question what is the point of “Australia” at all? Alexander Downer takes up
CoreLogic has released its final auction clearance results for the Easter long weekend, with the nation’s clearance rate falling to 77.1%, down from the recent high of 83.1% recorded the prior weekend: In fact, it was the first time in five weeks that the final national clearance rate fell below 80%. Auction volumes were also
TS Lombard with sounds analysis: Until not that long ago, the idea was still taken seriously that peak oil would be supply-side driven and triggered by sky-high prices: but as it is now clear that the oil case will resemble all previous energy transitions, useful lessons may be had from the most recent such precedent–peak
An open letter from a global coalition of eminent global scientists: Reaction to the China-WHO joint study team report CoV-2 origin hypotheses.”Having read the report entitled‘WHO-convenedGlobalStudy of Origins of SARS-CoV-2: China part’ and reviewed the statements made in the March 30, 2021 WHO-organized press event announcing the report’s release, we have regrettably concluded that our
Via CoreLogic: Low mortgage rates, a swift economic recovery, which has spurred consumer sentiment, and low listing volumes have catapulted national housing values to new record highs. At the end of March, the CoreLogic national home value index increased a further 2.8%, placing values 5.6% above the previous market peak in October 2017. The combined value of
Sir Fomo McSpruikerson is an expatriate billionaire and proud proprietor of The Strayan, a vanity media project designed to boost his assets. Exclusive: Morrison Government to rebadge Asprin as COVID vaccine Australia’s flagging COVID vaccination plan received a welcome boost today when Health Minister Greg Hunt announced that the Department of Health would immediately move
Jacinda Ardern was partly elected to address house price inflation. Instead, her first term delivered spiraling prices. Fed up, this year the Ardern Government has dropped a series of draconian measures on property markets including: Adding house prices to the RBNZ mandate. Negative gearing and deductibility of mortgage costs against property investments will be phased
With crisis comes opportunity. The Morrison Government’s collapsed vaccination program is a big one. Solutions are being posed: Chief Health Officer says the Government is mulling a deal with Moderna. Domain is calling on the Government to cough up big to get more Pfizer. Recalling that Israel secured its early advantage by paying double. I
Roy Morgan Research has released its labour force estimates for March 2021, which reports that the number of Australians employed (12.75 million) has returned to its pre-COVID level in early March 2020. Australia’s unemployment rate also fell to 11.4%, which was the lowest level since early March 2020. Whereas underemployment (7.6%) in March 2021 was
Australian dwelling values grew less strongly in the week ended 8 April, only registering a 0.34% rise across the five major markets: It was the softest weekly price increase in nine weeks, which illustrates just how strong the nation’s property market has been. Sydney continued to lead the nation’s dwelling value growth, recording a rise
The ferrous complex was mixed on April 8, 2021 as spot iron ore declined and paper markets rallied overnight. Steel has not updated: Nothing new today. I expect strong pricing for another month or so then a decent drawdown as seasonal weakness takes hold, plus a trend decline in the price deck through H2. Worse
The Australian dollar was stronger last night as the global stock surge carries on. The trigger is a distinct easing in the bond back-up as virus concerns, a still dovish Fed and flamed out oil combine to suppress inflation concerns. DXY was weak and EUR strong: Despite the rally, the Australian dollar is still stuck
Via AIG: Good numbers but no jobs joy. Jobkeeper roll-off? Full report.
God, what a schmozzle. After PM Morrison yesterday reassured Australians that there was no reason to suspend the Astra Zeneca vaccine, the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) has come down with recommendations of the complete opposite: 4-6 people per million will suffer thrombosis triggered by the AZ vaccine. ATAGI has recommended that the
