Daily iron ore price update (fly be free)

It’s all good again as steel and iron ore enjoy another bounce following China’s lousy growth report last week: China’s industrial economy is pretty weak but it is still being supported by the runaway building of empty apartments across lower tier cities. Thus things are still not bad enough for any material shift towards more

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Australian dollar the Dodo of global euphoria

DXY fell Friday night: The Australian dollar lifted: EMs were roughly stable: The diminshed AUD short position lasted one week, alas Gold fell: Oil climbed on a big drop in the US rig count: Metals sagged: Miners jumped: EM stocks too: Junk was firm: All bonds fell though Australia much less: Stocks soared towards heaven:


The burning of Scummo

Scummo went up in flames on the weekend. The liberal press applied the blowtorch. Laura Tingle captures the essence of it: It has been a week of catastrophe in Australia. For so many people, and so many communities, there have been days and nights of sleeplessness, exhausting anxiety, and fear of monstrous firestorms; and for


Prepare for the job market smash

After last week’s shocking employment survey from the ABS, Callam Pickering, economist for jobs site Indeed, has warned that the worst is yet to come for the Australian labour market: “The key to the labour market going forward is whether the economy can turn around, and what we’ve seen in the September quarter and early


Ever wondered if you would have fought the rise of Nazism?

On Friday, L-plated Treasurer Josh Recessionberg approved the takeover of Bellamy’s by a Chinese Communist Party owned enterprise: Australia: Mengniu 蒙牛 , agent of Chinese party-state in NZ, created CCP United Front Chinese business group, the China NZ Business Council 中国-新西兰商务理事会 under control of Yashili owner Mengniu and CCPIT. Now approved to buy Australia’s Bellamy’shttps://t.co/EN9EcS3ujO


Auction clearances strengthen

Auction clearance rates lifted slightly over the weekend, with the preliminary rate nationally coming in at 74.1%, up from 72.0% last weekend: Auction clearances were also way above the 42.0% recorded in the same weekend last year: Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate was 77.2%, down from 81.0% last weekend, but way above the 42.8% recorded in


Australia fools gold for international students

A new study by Vietnam-based consultancy Cturtle found that the return on investment for international students studying at Australian and other Western universities is far less than if they had studied at an Asian offshore campus: It found that seven to 11 years after graduation, offshore campus­ graduates were earning $US4721 compared with $US3632 for


Links 18 November 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Iranian Protesters Set Fire to the Central Bank of Iran After Fuel Price Rise – 7Bitcoins Retired Philantropist Bill Gates becomes the richest man in the world – Fox Once the Fed begins raising rates the everything-bubble will pop – Business Insider Wealth Disparity Expands Further – Ritholtz Bitcoin


Weekend Reading: 16-17 November 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Wework loses $1.3 billion against topline of $934M ahead of aborted IPO – Bloomberg Global Economy ‘Breakdown’ Seen Putting More Workers at Risk of Slavery – VOA News The ‘Doomsday’ Economists Were Wrong – BeInCrypto Oil rises after OPEC’s Barkindo says U.S. shale growth may slow in 2020 –


Macro Afternoon

Outside China, stocks are quite boisterous here in Asia leading to good buy signals for the northern hemisphere as we close the trading week out. The USD is coming back against Yen, while risk proxies Kiwi and Aussie bounced a little higher today but are lacking any signs of real momentum. Chinese stocks are still


NZ house prices hit record high

The REINZ has released its house price data for October, which revealed a 1.1% increase in values over the month, with values nationally also increasing by 7.6% year-on-year to a new record high: The breakdown by region is shown below: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 1.3% in October, with prices up


CBA: House prices to the moon!

Via the excellent Garth Aird at CBA: Overview Australian capital city dwelling prices, led by Sydney and Melbourne, have risen sharply since mid-2019. RBA rate cuts, coupled with extra borrowing capacity from the APRA induced changes to loan serviceabilityassessment anda surprise election outcome that removed some taxation risksaround housing causedhome buyer interest return in force.


RBA spins Australia’s record household debt load

RBA assistant governor, Michele Bullock, has played down concerns of Australia’s record household debt, claiming that the top 40% of income distribution account for three quarters of the debt load: “Three quarters of debt is owned by households that sit in the top 40 per cent of income distribution,” she told a conference in Melbourne.


Recessionberg federation reform plan collapses in 24 hours

And why wouldn’t it? It was never more than a PR stunt, via The Australian: Federation reform could be the secret to improving productivity in Australia and avoiding blurred responsibility in fields such as health, the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, has suggested. In a speech to be delivered at the University of Adelaide on Thursday, Frydenberg reveals


NSW Treasurer: Infrastructure cannot outrun population ponzi

Despite undergoing a record $93 billion re build, and selling-off nearly every public asset possible, NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet admits the state faces a massive infrastructure shortfall of $30 billion, as unrelenting immigration overruns Sydney: NSW faces a massive infrastructure funding shortfall of about $30 billion needed to drive projects critical to building the state’s


ASIC hoses Costello push for mortgage fraud

Peter Costello covered himself in glory again this week: Former federal treasurer Peter Costello says Australia’s monetary policy has probably run its course and believes some changes to responsible lending laws would stimulate the economy. Mr Costello said there was “a lot of intervention” following the Hayne royal commission earlier this year, which may have


Will China take the stimulus plunge again?

Via the FT: China’s fixed-asset investment growth has sunk to its lowest level in two decades as the Chinese leadership’s cautious stimulus fails to prop up the domestic economy in the face of a deepening slowdown. … The deepening economic slowdown, intensified by the US-China trade row, has ratcheted up pressure on Beijing to launch


The problem with traditional ethical funds

Ethical investment inflows have doubled in 2019. But, the Wall Street Journal highlights a problem near to my heart: ethical investing is not the same to everyone. Funds with a focus on socially responsible investing are enjoying a record year of inflows. But many such portfolios aren’t as clean as investors might expect. Eight of


Where did the rate and tax cuts go? Debt

Recessionberg is looking for tax cuts. Via Domain: The Morrison government is looking at ways to deliver tax relief to middle income earners as a much-needed boost to the economy after the nation suffered its biggest one-month fall in jobs in more than three years. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the government was “always looking” at


Youth labour market turns nasty

Yesterday’s ABS labour force release for October revealed a sharp deterioration in Australia’s youth labour market – i.e. those aged 15 to 24 years old – with falling jobs growth and rising unemployment and underemployment. The trend headline unemployment rate rose to 12.05% in October: Total employment growth for those aged 15-24 years fell to


Daily iron ore price update (Pavlov’s dogs)

Texture from Reuters: Steel output was also curtailed by poor profits at mills. Besides surging iron ore prices that have pressured steel firms this year, analysts also noted that output from electric arc furnaces has been affected by higher scrap steel prices. “The price for steel scrap increased by almost 100 yuan ($14.30) per tonne


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Overnight risk markets are in retracement mode as the USD also falls against all the majors except the commodity proxies as Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie remain subdued. European stocks fell as bond yields dropped everywhere except in Italy, while oil prices are not moving as the latest inventory report surprises with a


CoreLogic weekly house price update: Super Surge

In the week ended 14 November 2019, the CoreLogic 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, surged another 0.34%: The rise in values was broad-based, but driven by Sydney followed by Melbourne: Quarterly dwelling values continue to rise strongly, driven by Sydney and Melbourne, where prices are rocketing: The