2

July retail sales miss

Via ABS: JULY KEY FIGURES July 2020 June 2020 to July 2020 $m % change Turnover at current prices Trend na na Seasonally Adjusted 30 705.3 3.2 na not available Monthly Turnover, Current Prices – Seasonally Adjusted Estimate JULY KEY POINTS CURRENT PRICES Due to the impacts of COVID-19 on retail trade the trend series has been

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15

Fed kills the Phillips Curve

Cross-posted from FTAlphaville: From the June 2017 edition of The Economist: That central banks cannot endlessly reduce unemployment without sparking inflation is economic gospel. It follows from “a substantial body of theory, informed by considerable historical evidence”, according to Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve. Her conviction explains why, on June 14th, the Fed raised

29

Apartment rents crash at astonishing rate

Yesterday, The AFR reported the extraordinary rental slaughter taking place across Sydney and Melbourne: CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless reported similar yesterday, with apartment rents across Sydney and Melbourne crashing by 4.2% and 4.4% respectively in the five months to 31 August: This comes on the back of collapsing immigration and ballooning rental vacancies across both capitals:

15

ASX dragged into global bath of blood

AUD is taking some hits this morning: Bonds are calm: XJO gapped lower 2.5%. It will get more interesting technically if break into the 5800’s: Big Iron is hit: Big Gas more: Big Gold is up: Big Banks are still trending lower: But the real action is in the credit regulatory arbitrage sector with huge

2

Charting the epic apartment construction bust

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this week released its dwelling approvals data for July, which revealed that apartment approvals have fallen 63% below their November 2017 peak: Today, I want to focus on the high-rise apartment segment, which has driven the apartment bust. The next chart shows the picture at the national level and

59

2013 called and wants its car industry back

At The Australian: A cabinet-level taskforce will offer financial incentives including possible tax lures for foreign-based advanced manufacturers and high-value businesses of more than $250m to relocate to Australia as part of the budget’s economic recovery blueprint. The Australian can reveal that the Morrison government will target mining and technology, food and agri-tech, aquaculture, medtech,

36

Panic grips car dealers as sales collapse

The situation has gone from bad to diabolical for Australia’s new car dealerships, with the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) reporting the 29th consecutive decline in new car sales in August: As shown above, new car sales have collapsed to around Global Financial Crisis levels, despite the Australian population being 4 million people larger

5

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stock markets had a “wibble” moment overnight with the NASDAQ dropping 5% as the major bubble, I mean tech stocks dragged everything back, but nowhere near to reality yet. This move was based entirely on sentiment with economic reports not coming in at any surprising levels, with the ISM non manufacturing print

75

Morrison dials whaaambulance as states take control

At The Australian: Queensland and Western Aust­ralia have rejected Scott Morrison’s plan to reopen borders, vowing to keep their restrictions in place despite­ the most populous states, NSW and Victoria, being ready to adopt new rules on interstate travel. Amid fresh divisions over Queens­land’s ban on NSW, the impasse has weakened the nat­ional cabinet’s ability

36

Links 4 September 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The pros are getting ready for a market crash — retail investors, not so much, top economist warns – Market Watch What is universal basic income? How the policy gained traction – Business Insider Psychological scars of downturns could depress growth for decades: Research presented at the Jackson Hole

158

Macro Afternoon

Share markets continue to lift across Asia in response to the broad risk on moves overnight with the USD firming against the major currencies, plus Yuan despite a lower fix today by the PBOC. Gold is failing here, about to make a new intraweek low after its rout overnight, with momentum decidedly negative on the

32

Betting odds surge to Trump

A bit silly in my book: Polling has lifted a bit: I wonder if the betting markets aren’t a little swayed by the broader stock market bubble in their own case of reverse Trump derangement syndrome. There’ll be some significant crossover in the punters. The virus is helping so there’s some support for the betting

3

Melbourne auction market collapses

CoreLogic has released its final auction clearance results for last weekend, which reported a final auction clearance rate of 59.8%, down slightly on last week’s 60.0%: Sydney’s final clearance rate softened to 64.2% (from 66.1% last week), whereas Melbourne’s bombed to 40.6% (down from 45.0% last week). As noted by CoreLogic: In Melbourne, 162 homes

4

Australia’s trade surplus dives

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released trade data for the month of July, which registered a sharp fall in Australia’s trade surplus to $4,607 amid falling exports and rising imports: Key points as follows: The balance on goods and services surplus fell $3,542m to $4,607m in July 2020. Goods and services credits fell $1,604m

64

Kusher: Sell property now!

Via Cameron Kusher keeping it real at realestate.com.au: …mortgage holders who have lost their jobs should seriously consider the likelihood of them finding another job, or a job with an equivalent salary. If the likelihood of this occurring is low, they should strongly consider selling their properties sooner rather than later. 1. Competition Of course,

9

Foreigners prioritised over 100,000 Aussies stranded overseas

As the federal government opens Australia up to the return of international students and migrant workers, there are reportedly up to 100,000 Australian citizens and permanent residents stranded offshore and unable to return home due to limited (and expensive) flights and a weekly cap on returned travellers: Huge numbers of Australians are unable to come

11

Victoria’s COVID-19 infections rise again

Victoria’s COVID-19 infections have risen again, climbing to 113 from 90 yesterday. Another six deaths were also recorded. Unfortunately, infection rates appear to have plateaued: And the infection growth rate has ticked up; albeit remains below one (0.65): NSW recorded only 12 new cases of which 9 were locally acquired: NSW’s infection growth rate has

39

Victoria’s path out of lockdown enters fog

At the Herald Sun today: Melbourne’s stage four lockdown would be extended for a fortnight with limited tweaks but no clear timeline for many businesses to reopen, according to top-secret leaked documents outlining the government’s draft plans to ease restrictions. Versus just now, at the ABC: Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says a proposal from the

20

Melbourne awash with empty properties

Melbourne’s rental vacancy rate ballooned by 20% in August, according to new data from Domain: New data from Domain has laid bare the impact of the stage four lockdown on the rental market, revealing the portion of available, empty rental properties is up by a whopping 140.7 per cent compared to the same time last