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Auction market signals weaker property price growth

CoreLogic released its final auction report for last weekend, with the final clearance rate rising to 73.6% from 70.6% the prior weekend, which was negatively impacted by Melbourne’s hard lockdown. As usual, Sydney drove the market recording a final clearance rate of 74.1% (down slightly from 75.6%), whereas Melbourne’s final clearance rate rebounded to 68.8%

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China has lost Australia

Anyone wondering why the Liberal-National Federal Government did a U-turn on Australia’s relations with China over recent years?  Wonder why Australians still aren’t enamoured with the ALP opposition, despite a government coming across as misogynist, incompetent, and prone to pandering to the whims of corporate Australia and the 1%? Ironically, the barely concealed CCP propagandist

7

Phil Lowe: Macroprudential to come before rate hikes

In the Q&A to yesterday’s Keynote Address at the Australian Farm Institute Conference, RBA Governor Phil Lowe stated that the Council of Financial Regulators (i.e. RBA, Treasury, APRA and ASIC) are actively looking at macroprudential tools to curb the mortgage/property market (listen from around the 34 minute mark): “The Council of Financial Regulators meeting last

50

Berejilklian Government’s fascistic FriendlyJordies “overreach”

The fascistic Berejilklian Government is sinking into deeper hot water over its ridiculous arrest of a FriendlyJordies employee: Nicholas Cowdery, the former NSW DPP, said the “fixated persons” legislation was not designed for arresting comedians but for lone-wolf terrorists that pose a “risk of serious violence”. “On its face this does not seem to be

1

Nordea: US dollar to the moon

Nordea with the note: A relatively aggressive dot-plot makes for a hawkish read-through to a potential tapering time-plan towards the end of this year. We also seem to have passed ”talking about talking about tapering” to actually talking about tapering. Highlights: – 7 members of the FOMC committee expect lift-off in 2022, while 2 hikes

4

CBA bubblometer explodes

It’s getting amusing. Australia’s largest utility, the Commonwealth Bank, is being historically rerated as a wildly prospective growth stock. It has now reached 22x forward, very much in line with the kind of valuations we see for FAAMGS and similar quality stocks with spectacular growth, earnings reliability and global domination: I guess all of these

4

Schvets: Lowflation here forever now

There are not many asset strategists that are worth the time of day. Macquarie’s excellent Viktor Shvets is an exception. I agree with just about everything that he writes below. It can’t happen here–Why not? Is US really different to Japan or Eurozone? One of the most consistent macro themes over the last two decades

5

Australia’s youth benefitting from negative immigration

Yesterday’s employment report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that Australia’s youth – defined as those aged 16 to 24 – continue to benefit from the closure of Australia’s international border. While overall youth employment is yet to return to its pre-COVID level, with total jobs still down 17,400 from their pre-COVID peak

66

RBA demands low immigration for higher wages

The most revered economist in Australia, RBA governor Phil Lowe, has become the defacto best union official in the country, arguing for higher wage inflation for quite some time. In yesterday’s Keynote Address at the Australian Farm Institute Conference, Lowe concluded that “the Board wants to see the recent recovery transition into strong and durable

1

Macro Morning

Share markets were largely contained as the USD extended its gains against the majors following the latest US Federal Reserve meeting. Wall Street remains spooked but has some signs of life remaining with local stocks almost unphased as the Australian dollar skirts new weekly lows. Bond markets are flipping around as well with short dated

11

Australian dollar crashes with commodities

Sometimes markets are like taking candy from babies. The Wall Street commodities bubble is bursting. The inflation trade is caput. The Australian dollar is getting poleaxed by both. DXY has a double bottom in place and is off to the races as EUR is smashed: The Australian dollar mega head-and-shoulders top just broke. I would

26

It’s official: Australia has lost 74k migrants during pandemic

It’s official. Australia has lost 73,900 migrants since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, according to Q4 population data released yesterday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS): As shown above, Australia has recorded three consecutive quarters of negative net overseas migration (NOM), specifically: -7,800 in Q2 2020 -41,200 in Q3 2020 -24,900 in Q4

13

Links 18 June 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Fed Pencils in Earlier Interest-Rate Increase – WSJ Fed officials see GDP, inflation rising higher in 2021 – The Hill How ‘Chaos’ In The Shipping Industry Is Choking The Economy – NPR Asian Central Banks Build Dollar War Chests as Buffer for Volatility – Bloomberg The Fed Cannot Control

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets have reacted in mixed fashion to the overnight moves on Wall Street as the latest Fed meeting transmits a more hawkish approach sooner. The USD continues to strengthen against the major currencies  with gold struggling going into the London session, currently just above the $1800USD per ounce level. Bitcoin is vainly trying

0

MB Fund Podcast: China’s Iron Ore Revenge on Australia

In today’s investment webinar MB Fund’s Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith, Head of Investments Damien Klassen, and Head of Advice Tim Fuller cover the continuing saga unfurling with China, our biggest trading partner. As the behemoth in demand of global commodities, it makes a lot of sense to consider China’s real influence in both global

10

Wolf warrior endorses Labor grovelling as Aussies recoil

How exactly is this supposed to get Labor elected? China’s chief wolf warrior, Zhao Lijian, has fully endorsed WA premier Mark McGowan: “The Australian government should heed these constructive opinions.” “Face up to and reflect on the crux of the setback in bilateral relations, abandon the Cold War mentality and ideological bias, earnestly uphold the

4

RBNZ cleared to introduce debt-to-income mortgage curbs

Recent data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), collated by Interest.co.nz, showed that Kiwis leveraged big time into property ahead of the Ardern Government’s investor tax reforms (announced in late March). The proportion of new mortgages taken out with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios above five soared over the March quarter, with all borrower groups

1

ABS employment in detail: mega boom!

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its labour force report for May, which registered another 0.3% fall in the official unemployment rate to 5.1% off a whopping 0.9% increase in the number of jobs: Full-time jobs rose by 97,500 in May whereas part-time jobs rose by 17,700: The labour force participation rate rose

4

Why mortgage stress has risen

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) has released its mortgage stress figures for May, which shows that around 41% of households remained ‘mortgage stressed’, up significantly from the pre-pandemic level of 32.9%: Martin North explains the rise in mortgage stress as follows: Our approach to measuring stress is unique in that we examine household cash flow –

17

Restauranteurs confess: immigration kills wages

Yesterday, CBA’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, released data showing that the coronavirus pandemic has reduced the number of non-resident workers in Australia from 521,000 in Q1 20 to 235,000 in Q1 21: In turn, this has driven unemployment and labour underutilisation down, which will soon likely result in stronger wage growth: According to

4

Australia the new Japan as inflation goes nowhere

Deutsche with the note that should make AUD bulls shiver: For global markets, the US April CPI was by far the most eye-catching inflation release, but there are enough indications from individual country data and now the latest PMI reports, that bottleneck price pressures are a global phenomenon. Which begs a few questions: what are

9

Jobs market booms post JobKeeper

The ABS has just released its labour force survey for May, which reports cratering unemployment (to 5.1%) and underemployment (7.4%) on a whopping 115,200 monthly increase in jobs and a 1.4% increase in hours worked. The result smashed analysts’ expectations of a 30,000 increase in jobs and a 5.5% unemployment rate. Below are the key

5

Phil Lowe remains uber-dovish

Below find the latest installment from an uber-dovish Phi Lowe. The AUD rose a few pips though god only knows why. This is as dovish as he could possibly get: no inflation, no wage growth, recovery incomplete, no macroprudential (which will come first). Nothing hawkish. And he sure isn’t going to tighten when so much