Links July 6: Europe junked again

Down:  Aussie , Euro  Up: ore, CRB , metals , gold , $US , energy , grains Sovereign contagion: Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece Market Analysis Reuters Portugal downgraded to Junk by Moody’s Reuters German court hears case against bailouts Reuters Christine Lagarge starts at the IMF BBC US Factory orders rebound in May as shipments edge up Reuters Vale not concerned about China stall Bloomberg The US

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Europe slowing – Italy joins watch list

From the AFP Private sector activity in the eurozone was weaker than forecast in June, hitting 20-month low level with recoveries slowing in Germany and France, a key growth indicator showed on Tuesday. The data showed that output fell in Italy and Spain while Ireland continued to record a “very modest” pace of expansion, according


Moody’s identifies another $540b of Chinese problem loans

Following on from today’s post on Gary Shilling’s warning that China is headed for a hard landing, credit ratings agency, Moody’s Investor Services, today released a report claiming that it has identified an additional 3.5 trillion yuan ($US540 billion) of potential problem loans that the Chinese National Audit Office (NAO) did not disclose in their


RBA Statement dissected

The Statement accompanying the announcement of the RBA’s decision not to move rates this month has just been released and from our point of view it is a very dovish insofar as the RBA spends most of its time talking about downside issues with only inflation as a risk to higher rates. I still think they are struggling with


Trade surplus, Vehicle sales down

Two more data sets released today: First, June motor vehicle sales data released by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) show a fall of 11.6% than the prior corresponding period (i.e June last year), although this has been put down to supply constraints from the Japanese earthquake. A highlight was an increase in locally


RBA leaves rates on hold

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate target on hold at 4.75% The last rate rise was in November 2010. Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent. The global economy is continuing its expansion,


Trading Day: 5th July

The S&P/ASX 200 rose about 15 points on the open, but has retraced after waiting for the RBA Board decision on rates at 2.30pm AEST. It is currently 5 points or 0.12% down just after midday, at 4605 points. Other Asian markets are also mixed, with no leads to follow from Wall Street due to


Aussie Dollar at risk from the RBA

I haven’t posted much trading style stuff recently as the Aussie has been trading a range and I’ve been away from the desk often on business but for those with a trading bent today offers a potential opportunity. As you can see from the chart above last weeks move from just below 1.04 (range bottom)


Links July 5: Just ignore the data…It’s all good

Down:  $US , Aussie , CRB , Mixed:   energy , grains Up:  ore,  gold , metals Flat: Euro Sovereign movements: Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece Market Analysis Bloomberg More on S&P’s preliminary decision on Greece FT Greece may have missed June budget target WSJ ECB to raise rates, unflinching on Greece Reuters UK EuroZone warns Greece on Sovereignty and privatisation Reuters Moody’s says it


S&P – It’s a default

This morning I said we were waiting for ratings, and I said on my later post that it all hinges on the rating agencies. Tonight they have spoken and it would seem that the Greek crisis is far from over. Two rollover proposals being touted for Greek debt would amount to a selective default, ratings


Pencil in September

As I have been talking about this for months now, nothing is actually being fixed in Europe. Until the less productive countries actually default or Europe creates itself a real fiscal/monetary union then the “debt show” will roll on. The Wall street Journal reports today that the next act for Greece begins in September. Euro-zone


Trading Day: 4th July

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped almost 1% on the open, but has retraced after absorbing bad retail and building figures. It is currently 33 points or 0.7% up just after midday, now at 4624 points. Other Asian markets are up following the strong lead from Wall Street on Friday, with the Nikkei 225 up 1.05% at


RBA Commodities Index

Sorry we missed this one on Friday. RBA reports commodities are still heading for the moon Preliminary estimates for June indicate that the index rose by 1.3 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 3.7 per cent in May (revised). The largest contributors to the rise in June were


UK moves to reflate housing market

I have talked previously about how the United Kingdom (UK) operates the worst kind of housing policy – one that pumps demand while placing a tight straight jacket on land/housing supply – the outcome of which is both unaffordable housing and a propensity for boom/bust property cycles (see below chart). Now the UK Government is


Building Approvals fall 1.2% for May

The ABS has released its May data for the number and value of dwelling units approved by sector (public/private) and by state, number and value of new other residential dwelling units approved by type of building, and the number and value of non-residential building jobs approved by type of building and value ranges. TOTAL DWELLING


Retail Trade for May falls 0.6%

The ABS have released its latest monthly estimates of turnover for retail establishments. The trend estimate rose 0.3% in May 2011. This follows a rise of 0.3% in April 2011 and a rise of 0.3% in March 2011. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.6% in May 2011. This follows a rise of 1.2% in April


A busy week for data

The first week of the new financial year brings about a heavy load of data to digest, analyse and consider. With Houses and Holes still recovering, the folks at MacroBusiness will endeavour to cover this barrage of local and international data as much as we can. Here’s the tentative list for this week: From the


Links July 4: Waiting for ratings

In the world Week ahead on the Dow CalculatedRisk Thailand gains first female PM Reuters Fail-safe plan to stop US default Bloomberg Barack Herbert Hoover Obama Paul Krugman Effectiveness of QE Econbrowser  Greece gets bailout but Europe fails maths ZeroHedge Greece’s asset sales NakedCap. I’ve always wanted my own airport Rating agencies could still wreck the


Weekend Musing: The problem with democracy

It’s the weekend and I’m on my third Canadian Club. So to hell with it, I’m going to step outside my usual dry realm of equities analysis and get a little philosophical. Tonight I want to have a chat about what I see as a major flaw in modern liberal democracies – namely, their tendency


Weekend Musing: Ideology revisit, TagCrowding

Another weekend of musing. Ideology revisit Back in April I wrote a piece on economic ideologies and how they can effect the decisions of policy makers and economists alike. Over the last week on MacroBusiness I have also noticed a number of threads that seemed to have swerved into discussions between holders of differing ideologies,


Are shares a safe bet in the long term?

Time heals all wounds. As in life, as in investing. Or so the average financial adviser will tell you. The standard argument goes as follows. If your investment horizon is long enough, any bad years in the share market will be ironed out by the upward trend over the long term. Stay the course, and


Weekly Market Analysis

Summary The S&P/ASX200 finished the week 83 points higher, up 1.84 per cent to close at 4,591 points on Friday. After one of the biggest one-day moves of the year, the market experienced a slight sell off on Friday to finish just below the 4600 points level. Monthly Analysis The market is almost replicating the


Australian Dollar Weekly Wrap

I’ve been absent from the currency space in a tumultuous week, as I was out of the office on Business,  where the Aussie tried to break the bottom of the range only to flip the shorts and rally aggressively back to 1.0783 as I write. What can we garner from the run up to and post


Weekend Links: Crisis Over… Until the next one

Down: CRB , gold  , metals , energy  Mixed:  grains Up: $US , ore, Euro,  Aussie  Sovereign movements: Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece Market Analysis Bloomberg  More bank plans to save Greece Reuters UK,FT US manufacturing expands at faster pace Bloomberg May not be as good as it sounds ZeroHedge China PMI effects WSJ US construction spending declines in May CalcRisk Syrian protests spread BBC Russia rescues


Data redux – House prices and finance

Today’s piece is inspired by the comment flow that was associated with yesterday’s piece on the RP Data – Rismark release. Specifically a little bit of apparent angst about a claim we made that, we have modelled the relationship between the quarterly moves in the ABS house price data series and the total monthly value


RPData – May analysis

As Data Sword posted yesterday the latest RPData report is out. I am running a little behind on this, but as usual I like to do a bit of analysis of the media release to find things that you won’t see reported in the MSM Capital city dwelling values declined by 0.3 per cent (seasonally


Trading Day: 1st July

The S&P/ASX 200 was slated to make further gains today, but has moved down almost 24 points or just over half of one percent just after midday, now at 4584 points. This is possibly due to the weak Chinese PMI figures (forecast at an expanding 52, came in at 50.2) and the equally important Japanese