Producer prices subdued

There’s not much inflationary pressure in the Australian industrial pipe. December quarter Producer Prices from the ABS rose just 0.2% in the quarter and 1% year-on-year: And the weakness is across the spectrum: Nothing to worry about vis inflation. Carbon tax, schmarbon tax.

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Spain heads for crisis

The Spanish scandal that I mentioned earlier in the week continues to slowly blossom into a political crisis. The Spanish newspaper, El Pais, has published evidence  that between 1990 and 2009 members of Rajoy’s ruling party ran special accounts in order to hide payments from business people and make payments to party members. Many members, including Mariano


Basel blames APRA

I’ve noted several times in recent months that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is slowing turning its weighty turret towards the key secret in Australian banking: its use of internal risk weightings to allocate capital to mortgages. To cut a long story short, the opaque internal risk models of the banks enable them to


Macro Morning: Waiting for non-farm payrolls

European stocks ended what has been a very good month overnight as they played catch up with the US move the night before and some weaker than expected data and the fact that we all await the release of the single most important piece of monthly economic data tonight, non-farm payrolls in the US. Equally


Will good times end the bank deposit surge?

Cross-posted from the MARQAnalytics blog. Retail deposits are seen as the corner stone of financial institutions stability. The more retail deposits the more comfort bank managers and bank boards are with the stability of their institutions liquidity. Whilst the optimal level of deposits for any institution is really a matter of  their customer base and the type of business


Kiwis pile back into property

By Leith van Onselen Bernard Hickey from Interest.co.nz  has previously joked that the New Zealand economy was not an economy but a “housing market with a few other things tacked on”. And to be frank, Bernard has a point. A few years back, the IMF released the below charts showing that New Zealand had the


China chokes on its coal addiction

By Leith van Onselen The Washington Post has an interesting article showing the huge growth of coal consumption in China, which has grown so much that China is now burning nearly as much coal as the rest of the world combined (see next chart). While the growth in Chinese coal use is a boon for


Links 1 February 2013

Here’s a list of things Reynard read over night. Global Macro: Reforming bank risk-weighted assets – FT Alphaville Goldman Sachs braces for bond market blow up – Fortune Expect to hear a lot of scary bond bubble talk, starting … now. – Quartz North America: The FOMC Decision and US Q4 GDP Data – Acting


Tony Abbott promises a lamington for all

Tony Abbott this afternoon delivered the first of his major campaign speeches at the National Press Club (which is now available thankfully). The speech is a stark contrast to that of Gillard yesterday. It underlines why Tony Abbott is at once a powerful and limited politician. The style of the speech is far less polished


NAB property insider survey eases up

Adding to today’s property melange, NAB’s quarterly property professionals survey is out today and shows a small rise in expectations for price growth: NAB’s Residential Property Index rose to +8 in Q4’12 (+4 in Q3’12). WA (+41) the stand-out state, with Victoria (-15) and SA/NT (-20) negative. National index to climb to +49 points by Q4’13


Australia dollar flattens import/export prices

If you want to know what the muscular dollar is doing to the economy then it’s plan as day in today’s fourth quarter import/export prices from the ABS. Export prices were down 2.4% quarter on quarter despite the iron recovery: the internals show the widespread damage in crude materials: On the import side, prices rose


Housing credit growth weakened in December

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just released the private sector credit aggregates, which registered an increase in total credit growth in the month of December, but the fourth lowest monthly housing credit growth in the series’ 35-year history and the lowest annual mortgage growth ever recorded: Total credit provided


HIA December New Home Sales bounce

At last we are seeing some effect from the considerable stimulus thrown at housing in the past year. New home sales had a strong bounce in December from suppressed levels, up 6.2%: Moreover, the internals are good for employment and growth, with detached houses participating for the first time: In the month of December 2012


RP Data: House prices rebound in January

By Leith van Onselen House price data rolls on, with RP Data-Rismark just releasing their daily hedonic indices for 31 January, which has allowed me to derive January’s dwelling price results for the five major capital city markets. According to RP Data-Rismark, the 5-city dwelling price index rose by 1.11% in January, which represented the


US house prices lift. But for how long?

By Leith van Onselen Earlier this week, the 20-city Case-Shiller house price index was released for the month of November 2012, which revealed a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% rise in values and a 5.6% increase over the year (see next chart). The annual rise in home values was the biggest since January 2008, and combined with the


Macro Morning: US shrinkage

The release of the FOMC Statement this morning was much anticipated and it went to script with the Fed reiterating its commitment to doing what it can to revive the economy through its bond buying program and super low rates. The Fed also highlighted once again that the economy: likely to warrant exceptionally low levels


Volunteering to be Europe

Stephen Bartholomeusz of BS wrote late yesterday that: While it will be overshadowed by Julia Gillard’s nomination of the date for the next federal election, her comments on the Australian dollar occupied a meaningful slab of her address to the National Press Club today, indicating that the continuing strength of the currency is a front-of-mind


Deloitte: Mining boom peak in sight

From AAP: Deloitte Access Economics expects the mega-resources investment projects that have been a major driver of economic growth in recent years will likely peak in late 2013. In its latest Investment Monitor released on Thursday, partner David Rumbens says the top 10 planned projects worth $126 billion are due to get the final nod


Gillard is betting on economic weakness

The AFR’s Andrew Clarke today argues that Gillard is betting the next election on an economic rebound: Drawing inspiration from these electoral boilovers, the Gillard inner circle of the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer Wayne Swan, and political strategist John McTernan, formulated Labor’s election strategy over the Christmas break. To summarise, the ALP’s


APM: House prices lifted in December quarter

By Leith van Onselen Australian Property Monitors (APM) today released their December 2012 home price results, which registered a solid 1.9%/1.6% (houses/units) rise in values over the quarter and 2.1%/2.4% growth over the year (see below tables). Hobart, Darwin and Perth recorded the highest house price growth over the quarter, with values jumping by 4.7%,


Links 31 January 2013

Here’s a list of things Reynard read over night. Global Macro: Central banks walk inflation’s razor edge – Financial Times North America: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement – Federal Reserve The Fed holds – FT Alphaville Fed Says That growth in Economic Activity Fell in Recent Months – Business Insider  Comments on Q4 GDP and


Morgan poll: Parties neck and neck

Coincidentally from Roy Morgan this afternoon: In late January support for the L-NP is 50.5% (down 1.5% since January 5/6 & 12/13, 2013) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends January  19/20 & 26/27, 2013. The L-NP primary vote