June 28 links: Media schmozzle

Global Macro: Glenstrata the tombstone. Alphaville United States: US LNG exports up for grabs. Reuters Pending home sales beat. Calculated Risk Durable goods too. Zero Hedge Europe: France to lift minimum wage to  boost consumption. WSJ Italy embraces easier layoffs. WSJ Merkel update. FT Asia Migrant workers and locals clash in China town BBC Romney

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ASX Shares Daily – 27th June

By Chris Becker Another volatile day on Asian markets, but this time in the green, with the ASX200 closing up 0.7% to 4043 points, having a peek just above the short term support of recent weeks, as seen in the chart below (also marked are my medium term system short/tight signals, plus the KC Signal from 1st


Mission accomplished for ANZ

A couple of weeks ago ANZ claimed victory in its quest to find independence from the RBA in its intereat rate settings: ANZ wanted to stop the ‘dog and pony show’ that occurs after the Reserve Bank changes rates and we’ve done that by setting a particular date on which we will inform our customers


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism. FT Alphaville » China’s remarkable short USD position At best, the chart shows that China’s dollar position has become balanced over the last half year. That the dollars China takes in through exports cover the country’s dollar import costs, but that’s all. There are no surplus dollars leftover for reinvestment.This, by the


Perpetual no longer

The era of the financialisation of Western economies has come to a grinding halt, replaced by an era of de-leveraging, dis-leveraging or whatever term one wants to coin. The shrinking of the finance sector is partly ameliorated in Australia because of the $1.3 trillion super pool and inflow of funds from the levy, but there is nevertheless a new era


MacroBusiness Morning

The fact that the Case Shiller housing index printed better than expected (+0.67) seems to have predominated in trade in the US overnight with equity markets finishing in the black. The conundrum in this is that the Richmond Fed index was weak at -3 for its first fall in 6  months while at the same


Wakelin’s Eureka moment on Melbourne property

By Leith van Onselen It seems everyone is turning on the Melbourne housing market. Earlier this week, the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) capitulated, noting that Melbourne would see no house price growth in the short-term and, at best, only moderate price growth over the medium-term. The REIV’s analysis was joined by the generally


China’s, ahem, “stabilising trade”

Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst. While country A’s import from country B should be equal to the export from country B to country A, statistics from different countries do not always match up.  That is understandable as there are differences in how things are counted. In the China case, the difference itself is not what interests me


Peak oil no more?

Courtesy of Sober Look. Those who keep professing that “peak oil” is just around the corner or has already been reached should take a look at this Harvard paper (ht John A). The author (Leonardo Maugeri) analyzed oil exploration and development projects field by field globally to determine how oil production is expected to grow.


The European summit is a write off

Spain took a beating overnight after Moody’s downgraded the long term debt and deposit ratings of 28 Spanish banks on the back of the sovereign downgrade earlier in the month. Yields on short term debt spiked at auction: Spain’s short-term borrowing costs nearly tripled at auction on Tuesday, underlining the country’s precarious finances as it struggles against


Links June 27: The deep breath

Global Macro: Oil surplus looms. Alphaville United States: April US house prices up. Calculated Risk And the NAR says boom is back. Calculated Risk Are worldwide realty folk descended from one single spruiker ape? Profits hit all time high, wages all time low. BI Chemical Index howling triple dip. Zero Hedge Europe: Greece is finished. Naked Capitalism


ASX Shares Daily – 26th June

By Chris Becker On reaction to overnight markets,  the ASX200 slumped again on the open almost falling below 4000 points by 2pm before the guys who manage your super funds, high on some expensive beers and cocktails came back to work and bid the market up for the rest of the afternoon. It still closed down 0.3%


Are bonds or equities right about the future?

The stress in the global capital markets has some strange consequences. In an environment in which most developed economies have, in effect, have little or no cost of capital, many of the usual inter-relationships do not behave normally. The centre  may not hold, as it were. Dividend yields are above bond yields in all major developed economy markets. Macquarie is pointing out that


Ten trends in a yuan float

ANZ has produced an interesting note on the capital market and currency shifts we are likely to see in the build up to a full float of the Chinese yuan. To put it mildly, this is a big deal. The beginning of the end of US hegemony, if we’re not already past that point… Greater


China’s leading indicators rise

The Conference Board Leading Indicators for China were out today and the news is a rising trend. There is also this from the good news media: China’s trade ministry sought to dispel worries about slowing economic growth on Tuesday by saying exports are likely to pick up in coming months and the country can meet its


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism. 房地产信托兑付洪峰:今年1758亿是去年4倍|房地产信托|兑付高峰|华澳实德_21世纪网 lots of real estate products coming due this year. 4x 2011 amount. 175.8B RMB worth. 不良贷款来了_专题频道_财新网 Caixin cover story on bad loans now online CapitalVue News: Shanxi Coal Boss Detained By Discipline Commission related to liu zhijun case Amazon.com: China’s Environmental Challenges (China Today) (9780745660912): Judith Shapiro: Books In this trailblazing


Flipping a thing of the past

By Leith van Onselen As noted previously, the Budgets of Australia’s state governments are suffering badly from a sharp drop in stamp duty receipts on housing transfers, which in 2011-12 are expected to be -20% below the levels of 2007-08 (see below chart). In addition to lower housing prices, a key driver behind the fall


Policy under a zero social discount rate

Professor John Quiggin has argued for years that a high private discount rate, or an individual’s preference for present over future benefits, does not imply that society as a whole should apply such discounting to evaluate long term projects. The good professor has been kind enough to formalise this principle to demonstrate its internal consistency. 


MacroBusiness Morning

Good morning everyone and welcome to the new Macro Morning Market Wrap. We all hope you find this useful and feedback as ever is greatly appreciated. Worrying about worrying The markets opened the week quietly in Sydney yesterday morning but as soon as Japan and the rest of Asia joined the fray it was fear, loathing


Europe is not ready to deliver

The most choreographed move in recent Europe economics finally occurred overnight with Spain requesting a €100bn bailout of its banking system: Spain formally requested on Monday European aid of up to 100 billion euros for its banks, the Economy Ministry said in a statement. Spain’s Economy Minister Luis De Guindos said in the letter to Eurogroup


June 26 links: Carbon angst

Global Macro: Big users bet on oil falls. FT United States: New home sales, Dallas Fed pop. Calculated Risk Robert Shiller’s crazy new proposal. Business Insider The shadow bank inversion. Zero Hedge Europe: Merkel rejects joint union. Bloomberg Plan to centralise fiscal control. FT Asia: China’s labour and fried chicken shortage. Synthenomics Local: Rinehart ready


ASX Shares Daily – 25th June

By Chris Becker As Houses and Holes regaled this morning (and pinched a picture of me getting up – I think my caffeine to blood ratio is off the charts at the moment), the ASX200 slumped on the open falling 1% and fell below 4000 points (3993 was the low) before the inevitable bargain hunters/bottom pickers/revert to


Bill Evans abandons July cut

From my favourite bank economist: The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on July 3. We had expected the Board to decide to cut rates by 25bps. However, the contents of the Minutes for the June Board meeting make it clear that a cut in July is unlikely. Despite what we considered to be a