9

2nd July Links: Banking scams

Global Macro: The global scam that may prove fatal for Barclays, RBS and LLoyds Ian Fraser Banks conspire to fleece the public Big Picture United States: Schedule for the week ahead Calculated Risk US consumer confidence fell on jobs outlook Bloomberg Update on recovery measures Calculated Risk Europe: German parliament approves EU bailout fund Reuters,

Latest posts

13

Currency ideals

The slow motion train wreck that is the Euro is grinding relentlessly on. Commentators are smugly, if not gleefully, announcing the currency’s imminent demise, enjoying their triumphant occupancy of the moral high ground. The European elites are just as determinedly asserting that the currency will survive, looking for some sand to stick their heads in.

22

Weekend links: Yeh! Nah! Yeh!

Global Macro: Oil rockets. Bloomberg US exempts China and Singapore from Iran oil sanctions. Raw Story Big banks, big deceit. FT United States: Chicago PMI, consumer confidence miss. Calculated Risk US corporate profits fall for first time since the GFC. NYT Europe: Merkel’s concessions. Der Speigel Spanish bailout saves German pain. IFRE Fade the rally

9

ASX Shares Daily – 29th June

By Chris Becker Right – it was end of month, end of quarter, end of financial year and all was quiet until the EU meeting this morning, which sent everything attached with “risk” up! Straight up 1% or more across the board! Huzzah – crisis over! By the way – here’s the actual statement if

29

Can anyone explain this? Yes I can!

Houses and Holes, sans Twitter and not looking at his Bloomberg Terminal properly: ASX and AUD go vertical. Same in regional bourses. Can’t find any explanation… The Prince: risk markets have all jumped on the release of a statement following the end of the first day of the EU Summit (no 19 to solve the

91

Housing credit plumbs record lows

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just released the private sector credit aggregates, which registered a small increase in total credit in the month of May, but the equal second lowest monthly housing credit growth in the series’ 35-year history and the lowest annual mortgage growth ever recorded: Total credit

0

China links

Courtesy of Sinocism Debunking misconceptions on China? | Institute for New Economic Thinking Pettis’ students// Recently the research house CLSA issued an in-depth special report on Chinese economy called Misunderstanding China, trying to debunk certain so-called western illusions about China’s economy. Some of its points, such as the party’s influences on domestic financial institutions, the

4

MacroBusiness Morning

Not a good night for risk assets and markets as we slid toward the EU summit. US Stocks were down early with JP Morgan in particular under pressure after a New York Times article said that the losses arising from the recent trading problems could be as high as 9 billion. As a result JP

1

China’s capital outflow hitting yuan

Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst. Recently, the Chinese yuan has stopped strengthening against the US dollar.  Indeed, it has been weakening, as I predicted it would. What’s interesting when we look at the prices for USDCNY at daily closing and the People’s Bank of China daily fixing is that, increasingly, the Chinese yuan is closing at rates

2

Who’s afraid of the euro?

Courtesy of Sober Look. The latest Pew surveys that focused on the benefits of the euro and the ongoing wish to maintain the common currency have revealed some surprising results. The Brits think the euro was a great idea. Maybe they are just happy the UK is not part of it. The Greeks want to

8

Australia’s China ignorance

Find below the Lowy Institute’s new paper on Australia’s China ignorance. Regular readers will know that this is one of my hobby horses. Bravo to the Lowy Institute for bringing attention to this issue. Australia’s political relationship with China is far less developed than its economic relationship. In Australia-China ties: in search of political trust,

3

Europe fiddles

Day one of the EU summit and while the talkfest begins the rest of Europe continues on its downwards path: Economic confidence in the euro area slumped to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years in June, suggesting the economic slump deepened in the second quarter as officials struggled to contain the sovereign-debt crisis. An index of executive and

23

June 29 links: Keep calm and carry on

Global Macro: Fewer safe assets. Alphaville United States: A QE timeline. Calculated Risk Fed officials differ on QE. Reuters Kansas City Fed slows. Calculated Risk How much more for JPM? Zero Hedge Obama wins High Court on health care. FT Europe: Deposit inflows for Greek banks. Alphaville Asia Chinese local government finances unsustainable. Bloomberg China to

2

ASX Shares Daily – 28th June

By Chris Becker Another volatile day on Asian markets, with both bulls and bears exchanging places. The ASX200 saw the  usual blessing of unicorns gunned down throughout the afternoon, barely closing in the green, up only 1 point to 4044 points, continuing to have a peek just above the short term support of recent weeks, as seen in the

9

Australian dollar resilience

Find below a fascinating new note from Westpac’s Huw Mackay (Phat Dragon), who has a brain the size of a planet, on why the Australian dollar has  shown continued resilience, even though, thankfully, he does not buy into the “safe haven” tripe: We principally highlight the economy’s improved external financing position (both in terms of scale

20

The Pascometer burns red on Fairfax

The venerable liberal publishing house of the Australian media is doomed it seems. The Pascometer has endorsed its restructuring: There’s a sidebar lesson here about the difference between invention and innovation that we’ll let pass to concentrate on the silos, because it’s the silos that Fairfax has (belatedly) moved to break down. The Melbourne vs

19

Europe has no levers for growth

Apologies for being late today. Kids! It’s the eve of the 19th EU summit and as I type Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande should be getting started on their pre-summit meeting. I don’t think there is doubt in anyone’s mind that although we have seen 18 before it, this summit is of particular importance. Hollande

11

Household wealth still below GFC levels

Courtesy of Mark the Graph. Today the ABS released the March quarter financial accounts. My favourite table in this series is the household sector. Net household financial wealth is still down on its pre-GFC highs. Housholds are continuing to be cautious with their assets (favouring cash depositis over shares). Although, this trend might be turning a

0

The two halves of News Corp

The Australian media sector is certainly newsworthy right now, pardon the pun. It is not so interesting to investors, except perhaps those who want to take short positions. As Morgan Stanley points out, the industry is in structural decline. There may be short term plays to take advantage of cyclical movements, but there is, MS

6

ABS job vacancies fall

The ABS released its quarterly job vacancies report and for the three months to May and the results are below: MAY KEY FIGURES May 2012 Feb 2012 to May 2012 May 2011 to May 2012 ‘000 % change % change Trend Estimates Private sector 158.6 -2.6 -5.8 Public sector 16.1 -3.1 -9.2 Private and public

77

Defending the housing shortage

By Leith van Onselen Last week’s revelation that the number of households disclosed in the 2011 Census was some 900,000 less than that assumed by the National Housing Supply Council (NHSC) appears to have prompted a rear guard action from one of Australia’s key housing shortage proponents – the ANZ Bank. Over a number of

0

China links

Courtesy of Sinocism. An App Keeps Spies Away from Your iPhone – Technology Review China boats return to disputed area: claim | The Australian Chinese fishing boats have returned to a lagoon in a disputed South China Sea shoal despite an agreement to clear the area of all vessels, Philippines officials say. Bo family in

3

New home sales twitch

From the HIA: New home sales crept up by 0.7 per cent in May 2012, suggesting interest rate cuts are yet to have a widespread impact, said the Housing Industry Association, the voice of Australia’s residential building industry. …In May 2012 the number of seasonally adjusted new detached house sales increased by 3.9 per cent in Victoria. Detached

5

Rate cut probabilities

So, the market is daily repricing the probability of the July rate out of existence: We’re down to a one in four shot. This will be old news to regular readers. More interesting are the probabilities attached to future RBA meets: That’s a 94% chance of 25bps in August and again in September and high

6

MacroBusiness Morning

US data continues to be the key thing between a full-blown risk retreat in the run up to the EU Summit tonight and tomorrow. Overnight we saw the first rise in durable goods for 3 months posting +1.1% in May with machinery and defence orders driving the overall increase. Pending home sales also rose, up 5.9%