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The volume around David Jones – it does go to 11!

              UPDATE: AFR is reporting that “ASIC has confirmed it has launched an investigation into trading in David Jones’s shares and disclosure issues relating to an abandoned takeover approach”. As mentioned in yesterday’s ASX Shares Daily, there has been an unravelling debacle over the recent “mystery” takeover bid and subsequent withdrawal

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13

Bulk stall = China stall?

Here’s a chart of iron ore spot (white), futures (yellow) and major Chinese steel prices (rebar green and billet purple), as well as China’s GDP (red): Without putting too fine a point on it, it is fair to say that there is a correlation between iron ore and steel prices and Chinese growth. Anyone describing the

4

Bank funding costs easing

What looks to be a significant correction in Australian bank CDS prices is under way, down 18% from the May peak and 9% in the last week or so. We can take CDS prices a proxy for the spread over swap that banks will have to pay for 5 year unsecured debt: As you can

3

MacroBusiness Morning

When you have had a move like we had Friday there is usually a time for reflection by market players. This is particularly so when the short term technicals are so over cooked as they were for many markets and particularly when the rally occurred on the last trading day of the quarter as was

21

RBA to hold, Mckibbin advises hike

From the AFR this morning: One of Australia’s top economists, Warwick McKibbin, wants the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates today to crimp accelerating economic growth. Professor McKibbin, who was a member of the Reserve Bank board until a few months ago, made the recommendation as a member of the Australian National University’s so-called shadow

6

Death of the China cult

Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst. People in Hong Kong have a long history of mistrust of China. This city, after all, was a colony of the British Empire for more than a century, and has only been under Chinese rule (under one country two system, to be precise) for a mere 15 years. In this city, you seldom

1

The European economy sinks

I discussed yesterday that the success of last week’s EU summit needed to be measured on a political scale not an economic one. There were obviously economic ramifications from the outcome, but the ratification of whatever they eventually turn out to be is likely to take many months of further politicking. In the meantime the downward

5

3rd July Links: RBA day

Global Macro: Libor scandal: How I manipulated the bank borrowing rate Telegraph UK, and here come the lawyers Libor manipulation and the invisible whistle FTAlphaville United States: ISM Manufacturing index declines in June to 49.7 Calculated Risk US shale boom is starting to slow Business Insider Europe: Finland to block ESM secondary bond buying Reuters,

2

ASX Shares Daily – July 2nd

By Chris Becker In case you’ve wondering what we’ve been up to these last few months, we’ve launched the premium “Macro Investor” newsletter. And that’s where you’ll find the former Trading Week – but it has turned into much, much more, published Monday morning first thing alongside each edition of Macro Investor. Click here for

0

North Asian PMIs head down

As we know, yesterday’s offical  China PMI was dour, it was followed up by the final HSBC PMI today, which dropped marginally since the flash to 48.2. Now we have Korea and Taiwan signalling more of the same. Korea came in at: 49.4 in June, down from 51.0 in the previous month and pointing to

35

SQM hits “inaccurate” RP-Data daily index

Please find below a press release from SQM Research questioning the efficacy of the RP Data-Rismark daily home values index: Upon the back on recent commentary released by RP Data-Rismark in relation to increasing house prices in Australia, property research house SQM Research would like to take this opportunity to formally state our contrasting beliefs

2

NAB’s online index slows again

NAB has released its Online Retail Index for May and it shows ongoing deceleration: For the 12 months ending May 2012, Australia’s total online spending was around $11.3 billion. This level is equivalent to 5.2% of traditional bricks & mortar retail spending (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food) for the year ended April 2012. The NAB Online

13

Auction clearance rates going sideways

By Leith van Onselen Auction clearance rates over the weekend were 59% in Australia’s two major markets – Sydney and Melbourne. This compares to a year-to-date average of 62% and 61% respectively, according to the Real Estate Institutes of New South Wales and Victoria. In Victoria – usually the auction capital of Australia – the

10

TD Securities shows deflation in June

TD Securities monthly inflation for June is out and shows deflation on the month of -0.2%: That’s a big move down and goodness only knows how it will play into June quarter GDP results. Could we get another quarter of deflationary boom? Year on year inflation is now 1.6%: Obviously if the CPI follows, there’s

1

PMI has a decent bounce

The AIG PMI is out this morning and although still contracting shows a decent bounce: Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in June, but the pace of contraction slowed significantly. The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PwC Australian PMI® rose 4.8 points to 47.2 (readings below 50 indicate a contraction in activity with the distance from 50 indicative of

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Introducing “Macro Investor” (updated)

In 2011/12, the MacroBusiness blog forced a passage through the bog that is Australia’s failing business media. The success of the site was quite something. With a founding investment of $1,500, zero marketing, no employees and no supporting network, MB reached levels of traffic in May ’12 at roughly one third that of Business Spectator

6

MacroBusiness Morning

The European deal announced late in our trading day Friday ignited a risk rally like we haven’t seen for some time. We have trend breaks in a number of markets we follow and the overwhelming feeling is one of relief. Certainly from a fundamental standpoint there are many who believe this is just another band

0

China’s official PMI slows its descent

China released its official PMI yesterday and the result was not so great. The headline number showed continued expansion at 50.2, down 0.2 on the month, a decelerating decline. However the internals are not so good with real weakness in new orders, especially exports. There is some encouragement in the slowing but the trend in the

9

Europe’s small step on a long road

The EU summit ended late last week with a better than expected outcome, but as usual the devil is in the details. The summit statement (available below) was as loosely worded as these things come and many decisions are still left to interpretation and future actions. Going into the summit my major concern wasn’t so

0

Chinese gather foreign currency

Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst. Most of the time, my main focus of Chinese monetary statistics is on the the money supply, deposits and loans data in Chinese yuan terms.  What I have overlooked is a recent sharp increase in the foreign currencies deposits. The People’s Bank of China’s data show that foreign currencies deposits have been rising

1

Shrinking the US housing shadow inventory

Courtesy of Sober Look. In spite of the fear mongering taking place in the media and in the blogosphere with regard to the US housing “shadow inventory”, considerable progress is being made in shrinking the oversupply of distressed properties around the country. CoreLogic: – As of April 2012, shadow inventory fell to 1.5 million units, or four-month’

9

2nd July Links: Banking scams

Global Macro: The global scam that may prove fatal for Barclays, RBS and LLoyds Ian Fraser Banks conspire to fleece the public Big Picture United States: Schedule for the week ahead Calculated Risk US consumer confidence fell on jobs outlook Bloomberg Update on recovery measures Calculated Risk Europe: German parliament approves EU bailout fund Reuters,

13

Currency ideals

The slow motion train wreck that is the Euro is grinding relentlessly on. Commentators are smugly, if not gleefully, announcing the currency’s imminent demise, enjoying their triumphant occupancy of the moral high ground. The European elites are just as determinedly asserting that the currency will survive, looking for some sand to stick their heads in.

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Weekend links: Yeh! Nah! Yeh!

Global Macro: Oil rockets. Bloomberg US exempts China and Singapore from Iran oil sanctions. Raw Story Big banks, big deceit. FT United States: Chicago PMI, consumer confidence miss. Calculated Risk US corporate profits fall for first time since the GFC. NYT Europe: Merkel’s concessions. Der Speigel Spanish bailout saves German pain. IFRE Fade the rally

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ASX Shares Daily – 29th June

By Chris Becker Right – it was end of month, end of quarter, end of financial year and all was quiet until the EU meeting this morning, which sent everything attached with “risk” up! Straight up 1% or more across the board! Huzzah – crisis over! By the way – here’s the actual statement if