TD monthly inflation simmers

Just to throw a spanner in the works, the TD securities/Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge for April has come in pretty warm: The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3 per cent in April, after a +0.5 per cent rise in March. According to Annette Beacher, Head of Asia-Pacific Research at

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China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: China Loses Some Luster as Earnings Engine for Foreign Companies – WSJ.com Foreign companies are learning that they can no longer count on China for earnings growth. As companies report first-quarter results, big-equipment makers like Caterpillar Inc. CAT +0.16% and ABB Ltd. ABB -1.42% see slowing demand, while consumer-focused Apple Inc. AAPL -0.77% and Starbucks


Private credit growth flat in March

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just released the private sector credit aggregates data for the month of March: Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries rose by 0.4 per cent over March 2012, after rising by 0.4 per cent over February. Over the year to March,


New home sales crater

From the HIA! New home sales fell to their lowest level in over a decade in March 2012, said the Housing Industry Association, the voice of Australia’s residential building industry. HIA Chief Economist, Dr Harley Dale said the Reserve Bank of Australia needs to act boldly tomorrow and cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points. “The Bank needs to send a clear


Australian housing’s poor April

By Leith van Onselen RP Data-Rismark this morning released its daily home price indices for 30 April, which revealed that Australian capital city home values recorded a -0.73% fall over the month – the largest decline since January 2012 (-0.97%) and breaking two consecutive months of rises (+0.68% in February and +0.18% in March). The


Macfarlane versus Stevens

Don’t say I didn’t warn you. When I wrote They are coming for the RBA in September last year, the current roar for hand over fist rate cuts was exactly what I had in mind: To me, it’s as clear as day that Australians hate their new economy. And, at face value, what’s to like? Although the


A four punch knock down for US data?

Last week, in The US recovery is thinning, before the release of Friday’s Q1 GDP I wrote the following: We’re still waiting for the Dallas Fed (which slowed signs of slowing last month) but there are widely consistent themes here: slowing headline numbers, slowing new orders, rising employment numbers, rising input costs and inventories. In


Data for the Week

This is it folks. A big week in data and macro events both locally and internationally. All eyes are on the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) to restart cutting rates on Tuesday, the only question is it 25 basis points (or bps or 0.25%) or 50? And then an avalanche of PMI (purchasing managers index)


Morning at MacroBusiness

Macro Wrap So what happened on Friday night markets and over the weekend that looks like shaping your week ahead? I’ll post an updated Economic Calendar shortly for the week ahead, but lets have a quick look at the Macro Movers in Markets: The big data highlight was the advance GDP numbers from the US


Links 30th April: Crossing the line

Stuff Reynard the Fox found interesting today. For overview of markets and macro data check out Macro Morning. Global macro:  Natural gas forecasts never been so wrong Bloomberg Notes from the Doubleline lunch with Jeffrey Gundlach, Spring 2012 Reformed Broker The value of the hedge fund industry to investors markets, and the broader economy KPMG Hedge funds bet against


Only bards do well in markets

A question that has always intrigued me is “Why do some people read the markets much better than others?” Having observed those in the investment community who do have a genuine ability, my conclusion is that they are just that. Readers. Of a story, or narrative. They are not necessarily the smartest people in the


Trading Week

So where have the markets gone this week? Past the daily noise and headlines, this weekly chart heavy post will examine the major markets (debt, commodities and currencies) with the Australian investor in mind. Well its been another very interesting week on macro markets, and last night’s disappointing US GDP print puts things in doubt


Weekend Links April 28th

Morning all – US GDP was weaker than forecast but markets have shrugged that off on earnings news. Here is what caught our eye and will, we hope, add to your day today. Global macro:  There’s that wall of worry again – Equity Fund redemptions in April highest in 17 years – Bloomberg Jim O’Neill


Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. A quick update today – its Friday after all!  Another relatively slow day across Asian markets, until this


Moody’s puts QBE on negative watch

This afternoon, Moody’s placed QBE on negative watch.  QLMI was one of several reasons and not the most prominent. The stock sailed through the announcement unscathed.  It is worth noting, however, that if the parent is downgraded, it’s hard to see QLMI not suffering the same fate, and perhaps precipitating capital tops ups all around. Rationale below: Moody’s affirms debt ratings


Japanese PMI slogs on

The second of the North Asian PMIs that I follow is out today in Japan and the result is a continuation of the recent modest expansion: After adjusting for seasonal factors, the headline Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted above the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction for the fifth successive month in April. By dipping from 51.1


APM’s house price revisions

By Leith van Onselen Australian housing is back! Or its it? A quick read of the latest Australian Property Monitor’s (APM) house price results for the March quarter (release below) suggests that the Australian housing market has shrugged-off recent woes and has returned to growth, rising by 0.9% in the March quarter: AUSTRALIA’S house prices


The pain in Spain

Back in January S&P downgraded most of Europe under the following statement: Today’s rating actions are primarily driven by our assessment that the policy initiatives that have been taken by European policymakers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the eurozone. In our view, these stresses include: (1) tightening


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: Premier’s use lands fashion firm in hot seat — Shanghai Daily A CHINESE online fashion retailer is being probed for cashing in on Premier Wen Jiabao’s popularity to promote its latest T-shirts – an act that might have violated the country’s law on advertisement, Beijing commerce authorities said. Vancl, popular for its pop


APM’s magical March quarter house price rises

APM has released its March quarter house price data. The release was titled “Australian housing market shows signs of recovery” and here are the headlines: All capitals recorded increases in house prices over March with the exception of Adelaide and Brisbane. Sydney’s resilience continues despite Australia’s highest medians with both house (+1.4%) and unit (+2.5%)


S&P downgrades Spain

Find below the full text of the recently announced Spanish downgrade, which would make Delusional Economics proud (in a sad kind of way): We believe that the Kingdom of Spain’s budget trajectory will likely deteriorate against a background of economic contraction in contrast with our previous projections. At the same time, we see an increasing


Macro Morning (updated)

Macro Wrap EDIT: Just in, Standard and Poors has just downgraded Spain to BBB+ from A on “concern the nation will have to provide further fiscal support to the banking sector as the economy contracts” A mixed night in the markets, which got off to a good start in Europe, then stumbled on the release


The US recovery is thinning

If the new normal thesis holds then the US recovery meme is now running on empty. That’s not say we’re dipping towards a recession, we’re not, I don’t think. But growth is clearly slowing and the mix is getting less convincing. Consider manufacturing expansion, a key plank in the new normal thesis because it is


April 27 Links – Rally Rally Rally

Morning all – Markets were up in the US and its onward and upward for risk – here’s The Prince’s  full wrap at Macro Morning. Here is what caught our eye and will, we hope, add to your day today. Global macro:  A nice summation of three big challenges facing governments and countries and why