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Where are the ETF’s?

A recent chat with new MacroBusiness blogger Prometheus had me thinking about the problems surrounding the so-called “retail” investment space in Australia. As professional investors, Prometheus and I have access – or a willingness more like it – to advanced tools and products that turn macro analysis into actionable ideas into (hopefully) profit. For the

Latest posts

12

Basel takes aim at Mega Bank

It is with some vindication that I am able to inform MB readers of a forthcoming investigation by the Basel Committee on the progress of the implementation of Basel III reforms on a country by country basis. The investigation will extend to include the calculation of risk-weighted assets in both the banking book and the

14

Europe sets course for perpetual recession

Another evening of Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data from the Eurozone. As readers may be aware my major macro theme on Europe under current policies has been the same for quite some time now: Periphery nations weakening, France in the middle, Germany outperforming, but the whole ship slowly sinking. A few weeks ago, when the

60

The politico-housing complex comes!

You can hear the gunning of an engine in the distance. And it’s rapidly turning from an approaching whine to an extant roar. It’s the politco-housing complex and, like some blood thirsty Chevy from a Stephen King novel – panels beaten, paint fading, upholstery thread bare, demonic grin forged in its grill – it’s coming for

30

Victoria joins the PIIGS

By Leith van Onselen Earlier in the month, The Age reported that the property industry (including residential construction) is the most valuable industry in Victoria, contributing $36.9 billion, or 12.2%, to the gross state product of $301.4 billion, according to economic consultants AEC Group for the Victorian division of the Property Council of Australia (see below table):

0

Macro Morning

Macro Wrap Oh what a night – definitely a time when data moved the market, with the release of Flash PMI’s for the EMU, both manufacturing and services. Services came in at 47.3 (anything below 50 is contractionary), on optimistic expectations 49.3, whilst manufacturing came in at a very weak 46, on assumed contraction of

3

Australian dollar trapped!

BULA! First post for a little while as I’ve been in Fiji with the family during the New South Wales school holidays and even though Mother Nature hit the islands hard, the Fijians have bounced back strongly and are at their convivial best. The infrastructure still needs some work and hopefully the Australian government is

6

April 24 links: Eurofugue

Morning all – Europe and Chinese PMI’s weighed on markets and “risk” assets overnight – check out Macro Morning for a full wrap. Here is what caught our eye and will, we hope, add to your day today. Global macro:  Bloomberg overnight market wrap up – here Economics and markets are linked but not the

0

Victoria’s Budget is in trouble

By Leith van Onselen Earlier in the month, The Age reported that the property industry (including residential construction) is the most valuable industry in Victoria, contributing $36.9 billion, or 12.2%, to the gross state product of $301.4 billion, according to economic consultants AEC Group for the Victorian division of the Property Council of Australia (see

3

Trading Day – new day for Newcrest?

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. A red day across the board on Asian share markets, as the bears awake from a weekend of

24

The impact of foreign purchases on property

I’m not going to pretend that the following is forensic but with the release late last week of the Foreign Investment Review Board’s (FIRB) annual report, we can now estimate the degree of involvement of foreign purchases in the Australian property market. According to FIRB, residential property recorded 20.92 billion from 9556 approvals: That’s an

43

Deflationary spiral sucks in Woolies

Woolworths (WOW) announced third quarter FY2012 sales recently, with a 3.8% headline increase, or 3.3% excluding fuel. Importantly the comparative sales number was 0.0% with average price deflation at 4.4% in 3Q12. As exlained in a rather downbeat note from Macquarie Equities today – entitled “deflation or competition to blame?” – this comparative figure puts

2

China Flash PMI improves a bit

The China Flash PMI is out and shows a small improvement from 48.3 in March to 49.1 in April. Ouput, new orders and exports all contracted at a slower rate: This is welcome. However, a quick look at the charts shows that the trends are all solidly sideways: The global zombie plods on! China Flash

4

PPI pushes case for rate cut

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released Producer Price Index (PPI) data for the March quarter, which has registered a -0.3% quarterly fall in final (stage 3) prices and an increase of only 1.4% over the year: The -0.3% fall in final (stage 3) prices was driven primarily by

0

China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: Cities get a sinking feeling: report|Society|chinadaily.com.cn A diminishing water table, combined with a growing number of skyscrapers, is causing large areas of China to sink, increasing flood risk and endangering the rail network, according to a survey released recently by the China Geological Survey. The government has already launched a number of measures to

0

Macro Morning

Macro Wrap It was a weak dataflow on Friday night, with no US data, but the Germans gave a boost to risk markets, with their closely followed IFO survey showing renewed confidence in the German economy. On reaction European stocks climbed over 1% whilst the US session was subdued, with Apple falling putting a damper

18

An African iron ore deluge

PhD candidate Luke Hurst of the ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy has produced new research on the potential impacts of African iron ore on the sea-born iron ore price. I recommend everyone read this paper (find it at the end). It’s solidly argued and a very readable summary of the various arguments put forward

0

China’s April lending weak?

Caijing reports that sources close to the big 4 Chinese Banks (ICBC, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China) suggested that the 4 banks have lost more than RMB1 trillion of deposits, while new loans are not really growing. The hugely positive picture of above expectation new loans in March appears to be

7

Nomura joins commodity super cycle bears

Various investment banks have been weighing in on whether or not the end of the commodity/ steel/ metal and other super-cycles, which have been led primarily by China’s increasing demand. Credit Suisse has different teams on either side of the debate, and Citi thinks that it’s over.  Now it is Nomura’s turn. Similar to Citi’s argument,

16

Europe’s lunatics rise

Back in December last year while discussing the ongoing woes of Europe, I suggested that the fiscal compact may never actually be enacted because attempts to do so would have such a disastrous outcome that European nations will inevitably give up. I also mentioned in February that one of the things that could potentially effect any

5

April 23 links

Morning all – we hope you had a great weekend. Here is what caught our eye and will, we hope, add to your day today. Global macro:  Banking retreat, taking money back home – The Economist IMF gets its massive warchest – WSJ Making Goldilocks happy – iMF Direct Is high public debt harmful for

24

The story of markets

Discussing the news coverage of the Argentinian president Cristina Fernandez’s nationalisation of YPF, the former state oil firm, I was reminded of why this blog is named Sell On News. The news in much of the mainstream media is a lot of things, but news it is not. The Economist, that last bastion of the

14

Trading Week – Podcast

So where have the markets gone this week? Past the daily noise and headlines, this weekly post will examine the 10 major macro markets (debt, commodities and currencies) with the Australian investor in mind. This week, instead of the normal chart format, I’ve created and uploaded two videos (10 mins each) to Youtube. Here’s Part

7

Another look at the Federal Budget

Cross posted with permission from Mark the Graph: Another chart on which it appears that the problems with balancing the Federal Budget are more on the expenditure side than then revenue side when compared with historical levels. Revenue is close to returning to its pre-GFC level of 23 per cent of nominal GDP. If things

29

Real estate industry positively negative

Cross posted with permission from Capital Appreciation: The latest Property Council of Australia (PCA) – ANZ Property Industry Confidence Survey results indicate that property professional respondents in the ACT were slightly more positive about residential property in the June 2012 quarter but they are generally negative about the overall economy. I’ve highlighted some of the charted results for the ACT

19

Weekend Links

Stuff Reynard the Fox will be reading about over the weekend. Global macro:  IMF projected to top $400 billion in pledged funds WSJ Missing a bull market is a dismal offense Credit Writedowns Peak oil goes mainstream (again) FTAlphaville How an election in Greece could cause Europe to crumble New Republic, the rise of the the

1

Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Another very mixed day on Asian share markets, with China markets up, Japanese markets down, but Australia flat.