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Bears have locked jaws on the Australian dollar

Well the Chinese PMI bounce faded quickly for the Australian dollar didn’t it. As I said on Sunday/Monday: I am looking forward to the next few days trade before Easter because it will tell us a lot about where the market is positioned and what it believes. So we had a brief rally earlier this week but the

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Morning Macro

Overnight News and Data Releases All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes (reported here by Houses and Holes), but beforehand, the European Union released its monthly Producer Price Index (PPI). Consensus was looking for only a 0.5% rise, but it came in at 0.6%, with year-on-year also higher than expected at 3.6%.

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FMG’s soft power

Or is that Chinese soft power at work  in Perth? I just ran across the following transcript of yesterday’s Andrew Forrest address to the BOAO Forum, China’s answer to Davos. I was mostly struck by just how large a political, economic and cultural gulf the speech seeks to cross. ANDREW FORREST BOAO FORUM THE NOBLEST

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Milky wilkies turns sour

Find below the FOMC March minutes. I’ve highlighted the bit that freaked markets out: a 2% inflation threshold for QE3. That won’t be easy with oil where it is. Developments in Financial Markets and the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet The Manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) reported on developments in domestic and foreign

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The AFR calls for a recession

Damn, who wouldn’t run a newspaper? Aside from the small problem that you lose money hand over fist, it entitles you pontificate every which way with no consequences. Yesterday I noted that the AFR had backflipped its editorial direction on the need for a Budget surplus. Today it’s official: Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings

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April 4 links: Lovin’ the surplus

Markets: Up:   Treasuries, USD Flat: ore, gold, CRB, euro Down:  Stocks, energies, Aussie Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10

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Trading Day: RBA disappoints

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published each Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Again,

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Global steel rebound?

Find below a bullish report on global steel output from ANZ. The ANZ team is a bit reflexively bullish for my tastes and there some rather large questions still hang over Chinese output but there are some useful charts in this note. Happy reading. Anz Hifi Steel Mar12

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The RBA is moving ahead backwards

It is fairly clear that the Australian economy is softening. It is fairly clear that there is not one but two structural changes occurring in the economy – mining and disleveraging of households. It is fairly clear that inflation around the globe and in Australia is moderating. It is also fairly clear that monetary policy, the blunt

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Roy Morgan unemployment eases further

Roy Morgan unemployment is out today and shows another steady decline from its recent cyclical peak: Unemployment was 9.3% (down 0.4% since February 2012) — an estimated 1,120,000 Australians were unemployed and looking for work. A further 7.9% (unchanged) of the workforce were working part-time looking for more work (underemployed) — 959,000 Australians. In total

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RBA holds, signals cut

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to hold rates, leaving them at 4.25% in its April meeting. Before the announcement, 26 out of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg said the central bank would leave rates on hold. Here’s the full announcement, and let the speculation begin for next month (and Houses and Holes got

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Chart of the Day: Twin Peaks of construction

Following yesterday building approvals, covered by The Unconventional Economist here, today’s chart is from ANZ’s monthly chart pack (note: the RBA version is coming out tomorrow, which I will cover as usual) and tracks private vs public non-residential building approvals: From the report: In contrast (to mining investment), the outlook for non-residential building activity remains

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Retail sales subdued in February

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released the retail trade data for the month of February and, while it met analysts’ expectations, the release shows a sector still suffering the effects of household disleveraging. In seasonally adjusted terms, retail sales rose by 0.2% in the month of February and

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China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: China Fake IDs: Homeland Security TSA Screenings May Not Catch Counterfeit Identification– Whether you’re a teenager looking to score booze or a terrorist trying to board a domestic flight, Chinese fake IDs may be just the solution for you, according to an investigation by The Daily.A video released by The Daily on

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RP Data March report and video

By Leith van Onselen Please find attached RP Data-Rismark’s press release for the 31 March home value indices results. The key tables and figures from the release are provided below. First, the table summarising the key movements and levels for each capital city and nationally: Note that Canberra now has the most expensive dwellings in

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S&P demands a surplus

For some time I have laboured in the wilderness on the question of bank funding and the national Budget. Indeed I took the AFR to the woodshed last week for its hopelessly political assessment of Budget imperatives. Well, they seem to have listened. From S&P and Fitch via the AFR this morning comes the hard, cold truth about

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Market Morning

Markets had a bullish session last night, particularly Europe, even as the PMI data underwhelmed, except in the UK, it was US manufacturing data that also buoyed markets. Let’s have a look at the details of what happened. Remember to read my weekly analysis of all major macro markets in Trading Week to put this daily noise

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World manufacturing eats braaaaains

The PMIs are out and here’s the wrap. Let’s begin with the good news. The US’s nice run continues, not lighting up the night, but decent nonetheless, up 1% to 53.4. A chart from Calculated Risk: And from the ISM itself: You can see the internals were marginally less encouraging with new orders down 0.4%

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AFG data points to housing bottom

AFG released their latest mortgage lending report late yesterday and it looks like the uptrend in lending that we saw in the previous report has continued. The report also notes some other interesting trends with over a quarter of new loans now fixed rate. Firstly the usual blurb for those who are new to this:

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I’d cut today

Yesterday the Pascometer redlined on hawkish monetary policy, suggesting a cut today. Whether that’s true or not, it’s pretty clear we’re headed for more. For the case against today’s meeting, the international environment has improved since last month. The European recession is advancing but not so quickly that it represents an existentential threat to Australia. Like Delusional

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Eurozone’s miserable March

There was a barrage of data out of Europe overnight with the major flow being manufacturing purchasing managers indexes – PMI. I thought, given the volume of data, I would just provide a summary of each document and if you are interested to read further you can follow the links yourself. Overall outside of a

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Commodity prices rise in March

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday afternoon, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released their preliminary index of commodity prices for the month of March. According to the release: Preliminary estimates for March indicate that the index rose by 0.6 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 1.2 per cent

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April 3 Links: Team America

Markets: Up:  , gold , Stocks , energies, Aussie , CRB Flat: ore Down: Treasuries , euro , USD, Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10

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Trading Day: I am disappoint

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published each Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Forgive

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NAB online retail index rises

For those that don’t know, NAB recently launched an online retail sales index. Today it registered strong growth in February: For the 12 months ending February 2012, Australia’s total online spending was around $10.9 billion. This level is around 5.0% the size of traditional bricks & mortar retail spending (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food) for the

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Pascometer redlines on MacroBusiness

Regular readers will know that occasionally we track Michael Pascoe as a contrarian indicator. That is, when the Pascometer redlines on a subject, it is well worth considering going long the opposite. But what do you do when the Pascometer redlines on you? That’s the harrowing question confronting MB today after the Pascometer popped the

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NSW hits building approvals

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released the Building Approvals data for the month of February. At the national level it is another shocker with the number of dwelling approvals falling a seasonally adjusted 7.8% to 10,771, compared to a downwardly revised 11,688 units in January. Economists had forecast

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TD March inflation bounces

From TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute: The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.5 per cent in March, following a 0.1 per cent increase in February and a 0.2 per cent increase in January. In the twelve months to March, the Inflation Gauge increased by 1.8 per cent, the lowest

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Australia: Playing with fire

Please find below former Reserve Bank of New Zealand advisor and multiple CEO, Terry “Macca” McFadgen’s, latest ‘Maccanomics’ article, which tackles the reviving United States economy. Enjoy! Australia’s recent history has been remarkably free of recessions. For nearly 20 years up to the global crash of 2008/9 the country clocked up regular growth. Call it good