The AFR is running a blog from its resources conference in Perth today and offering periodic headlines including the following: 2.13pm: Energy Minister Martin Ferguson says he hopes the iron ore price will stabilise around the $US120 a tonne mark. “That’s a real platform for us to sustain those projects,” he says. The high iron prices
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 741 131112
Find below a speech this afternoon by Jonathon Kearns, Head of Economic Analysis at the RBA, on the outlook for dwelling investment. The Outlook for Dwelling Investment Jonathan Kearns* Head of Economic Analysis Address to the Australian Business Economists’ Lunchtime Briefing Sydney – 13 November 2012 Housing is important to all of us as a place to
If you wonder why I called for a rate cut in the last meeting, wonder no longer. Today’s NAB survey shows a bust is underway in mining: Business conditions stumble to weakest level in more than three years, with wholesale and manufacturing conditions especially subdued. Capex index points to further softening in business investment, credit
By Leith van Onselen The ABS this morning released Lending Finance data for the month of September, which registered solid seasonally-adjusted rises across all categories: In seasonally-adjusted terms, the value of personal finance commitments rose by 2.6% and were up 4.2% over the year: The value of lease finance commitments also rose – up 10.1%
So here we go again. Greece needs even more money, and once again the EU needs to decide what to do about it. Eurozone governments will not agree to disburse more money to debt-ravaged Greece on Monday, despite the country approving a tough 2013 budget, because there is not yet a consensus on how to
Well, one pollie has a brain anyway. From Malcolm Turnbull today: Continuity, rather than change, is the order of the day in Washington and Beijing. Barack Obama has been convincingly re-elected and while his party has picked up seats in both houses of Congress, the Republican opposition remains in the majority in the House of
Find below the executive summary of the International Energy Agency’s overnight release of its World Energy Outlook 2012. There are some quite incredible factoids in this document including: the US is set to overtake Saudi Arabia in 2020 as the world’s largest oil producer the US is set to become energy self-sufficient unconventional gas supplies
From the AFR: China’s central bank governor has indicated a long planned currency deal with Australia is set to go ahead, as it would provide greater stability to the growing trade relationship. The head of the People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, said direct trading of the yuan and Australian dollar was a “natural outcome”,
Find above the ore complex price table for November 12. The news today is all in the other bulks, where we find a little bounce happening for both coals, coking and thermal, on improving Chinese data. From ANZ: Newc physical FOB thermal coal prices rose, in line with better China data. Electricity production in China rose
By Leith van Onselen While housing finance data continues to improve, housing construction data is weakening, with the release of quarterly construction materials volumes by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday showing further weakness in volumes of concrete blocks, clay bricks and roof tiles – materials typically used in housing construction (see below chart).
Go to Tokyo, it’s said, and you’ll visit the future. The sentiment may apply mainly to Japan’s capital’s neon-lit Ginza district, its futuristic fashions or cutting-edge technology, but the future doesn’t look so bright if applied to measures of the Japanese economy, where quarterly gross domestic product, released yesterday, shrank 3.5% on an annualised basis,
Veterans day in the US is a holiday but stock and other markets remained open in the US overnight although you would be hard pressed to notice given the very tight ranges. Certainly Asia had an interesting session after the weak Japanese GDP data was released juxtaposing the better Chinese data from the weekend. We saw
Is BHP a national champion? That’s the question unasked this morning by the AFR in its coverage of the big Australian’s plan to ship LNG to Asia from the US: BHP Billiton is considering shipping a portion of its US shale gas reserves to Asia, a strategy that would reshape the global gas industry and compete
Courtesy of Mark the Graph. The Australian has released the latest Newspoll survey of voting intentions.The headline result is in line with the changing fortunes since the Coalition’s peak at the end of April 2012. The Poll Bludger also has the details. What would this mean at the next election? If the national vote was 51-49, the 100,000 election
Courtesy of Sober Look. The chart below from Trading Economics shows China’s total retail sales of consumer goods %YoY. The October number came in at 14.5% a bit ahead of expectations – definitely a strong result. Source: Trading Economics When looking at the year-over-year numbers, it is difficult to appreciate the notional increases in retail
The People’s Bank of China has published aggregate financing figures for October. Net new aggregate financing for the month of October amounted to RMB1.29 trillion, down from RMB1.65 trillion in September. Most components of aggregate financing fell in October compared with September with the exception of corporate bond issuance, which increased from RMB227.8 billion in September to RMB299.2
Global Macro Impact investing forecast to double. FTfm Speaking of impact, micro equity proposed where micro loans fail. McKinsey Moscow urges direct US-Iran talks. Financial Times As Syrian opposition groups strike deal in Qatar. Reuters Meanwhile, UN urges restraint in the Golan Heights. Jerusalem Post Gold bug alert: China could boost holdings. Bloomberg United States
By Chris Becker The wait and see mood post-US election continued in Asia today, although Chinese markets are up slightly, the very poor GDP numbers from Japan (worlds 3rd largest economy – I didn’t hear a peep out of the usual biased suspects about this result today) saw a sell off in the local bourse
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released housing finance data for the month of September, which registered a seasonally-adjusted 0.9% increase in the number of owner-occupied finance commitments over the month. August’s results were also revised up by 0.4%: Arguably, the most important figure in the release is the
The RBA’s montly credit card debt is out for September and was down sharply to $19.5 billion from $21.7B in August. Outstanding balances were roughly flat at $49.1 billion from $49.2 billion in August. Revolving debt is increasingly on the nose:
It’s no surprise given the run of crappy data, but Japanese GDP has slid into the red this morning with GDP 3Q preliminary at -0.9%, versus expected -0.9%. Prior was +0.2%. GDP annualised is -3.5%, expected was -3.4%, prior was +0.7%.
By Leith van Onselen Goldman Sachs last week released an interesting report (below) on the stark differences that have emerged across developed country housing markets. The report essentially seperates the preformance of various housing markets into two distinct categories: ‘housing high-flyers’:where real house prices have increased strongly and are up cumulatively since Q1 2009; and
I’ve recalled for readers before a description offered by Paul Kelly about the John Howard view of Australia’s strategic bind vis-a-vis the US and China. Kelly used the old Yogi Berra phrase, “when you come to a fork in the road, take it”. That is, Howard was determined to not choose sides at all. He
By Leith van Onselen The auction clearance rate fell in Victoria over the weekend, with the number of auctions up significantly on the prior week’s action, which was interrupted by the Spring Racing Carnival. The Real Estate Institute of New South Wales (REINSW) has not updated its auctions data for the weekend, precluding us from
So is it going to be the fiscal cliff or improving Chinese data or Europe that dominates trade this week? Or could it simply be the poor and deteriorating price action in the US stock market that will dominate trade? University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data on Friday was a welcome bright spot after the
Find above today’s iron ore complex table. Here are the charts. Spot and 12 month swap: The spread between them is running out of room for this price level: If you think about it, the spread makes a fair amount of sense. Current iron ore demand is boosted by restocking and Chinese leadership transition hopes.
The fruits of our blinkered and ideological commitment to a strong dollar really are beginning to show. From the AFR: The Russian central bank has stepped up its purchase of Australian dollars, helping to explain the currency’s persistent strength despite recent interest rate cuts. The Central Bank of Russia has reportedly been buying Australian dollars
You never know who you will meet at a wedding. I spent Saturday night sipping beers with an oil and gas executive (who wished to remain nameless). His views on the mining boom were no different to my own. But the perspective was less macroeconomic and more operational. Basically, he reasoned, that between the dollar
China’s export growth continued to improve in October while import growth slowed again according to official data. Export growth accelerated to 11.6% on a year-on-year basis, up from 9.9% year on year (yoy) in September, and above market estimates of 10.0% yoy, while imports growth slowed to 2.2% yoy, down from 2.4% yoy and worse
