Latest posts


Macro Morning: RBA gooses Wall St?

If you believe the reporters at MarketWatch then the Dow pushed to a new all-time high above 15,000 and the S&P closed at another new all-time high because the RBA cut rates yesterday. At first blush that seems a ludicrous notion but when you think about it for a second it actually makes a lot


China files its Australian divorce papers

Cross-posted from Kate Mackenzie at FTAlphaville. China’s State Council has announced intentions to carry out some potentially quite big reforms. From Bloomberg: China signaled it will propose plans this year to allow freer flows of its currency in and out of the nation as part of measures to loosen control over the yuan and interest rates.


Victoria pins budget on property recovery

By Leith van Onselen The Victorian Government yesterday released the State Budget for 2013-14, which included the following headlines: Operating surplus of $225 million in 2013-14. Government infrastructure investment program of $6.1 billion in 2013‑14, including transformational investments in East West Link – Stage 1, the Port of Hastings, road, freight and public transport. Delivering the new Bendigo, Monash Children’s and


Who’s a fiscal conservative then?

The drip feed of exclusive Government budget cuts to the AFR continues today with carbon tax cuts next on the chopping block: Labor’s carbon package is in tatters, with $1.4 billion of tax cuts scheduled for 2015 to be dumped in next Tuesday’s budget, and cuts to clean-energy initiatives, because a slump in the European


Roy Morgan consumer confidence tumbles

Well, there go the 2013 gains for Roy Morgan consumer confidence. RM puts it down to: The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating shows Consumer Confidence plunging to 113.6 (down 5.3pts since April 27/28, 2013). Consumer Confidence is now 3.3pts higher than at the same time a year ago when it was 110.3 (May 5/6,


Links 8 May 2013

Global Macro/Markets: Dow 15000: What it Means, What it Doesn’t Mean – MoneyBeat – WSJ – Wall Street Journal Hedge fund chief Paulson a big loser in gold rout – Reuters Paulson Said to Lose 27% in Gold Fund Last Month in Rout – Bloomberg Subprime bond bounces back, leaving behind a subprime borrower –


ASX at the close

US investors continue to push up stocks, with traders looking to gain exposure to more cyclically-focused areas of the market, and not defensives. You can certainly understand this, with Goldman Sachs suggesting that cyclicals are more undervalued relative to defensives than at any other time in the past fifteen years. Perhaps this will be a


NAB passes on full 0.25% rate cut

  From Property Observer: National Australia Bank today announced it would cut its standard variable home loan rate by 0.25%p.a. to 6.13%p.a… The new rate is effective from Monday 13 May. NAB will also reduce its rate on standard variable business rate lending products by 0.25%p.a. UBank, backed by NAB, also announced it would cut


RBA cuts interest rates by 0.25%

By Leith van Onselen Just in, the RBA has cut the official cash rate to a record low 2.75%, effective 8 May 2013, on the back of lower than expected inflation in the March quarter and the stubbornly high exchange rate. Here’s the RBA’s statement: Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision At its


Temporary immigration booms

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of March, which revealed surging net temporary migration into Australia, but falling net permanent migration. In the year to March 2013, permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia hit their highest ever level of 671,130 people,


Credit Suisse offers its dividend picks

Credeit Suisse is out with an interesting quant note screening for the best of Australia’s dividend stocks: The Australian market offers the fourth highest dividend yield and the highest payout ratio within the G20 markets. Quality and yield seem to be the dominant themes in the market place. Indeed, quality factors (such as return on equity


Retail sales in perspective

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s retail sales data left a question market over whether retail sales are staging a solid recovering after a prolonged period of weakness, or just another ‘dead cat bounce’. While a -0.4% fall in retail sales was recorded in March, sales over the prior two months had been strong, meaning that


Weekly poll aggregation

Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot. Last week, I urged caution with one poll suggesting a decline in Labor support. This week, we see more evidence of a decline in Labor support: Essential has moved a point in the Coalition’s favour (now 56 to 44) over last week and the pervious independent fortnight Newspoll has moved a point


Dunn & Bradstreet capex intentions plunge

Dunn and Bradstreet do a  quite useful business expectations survey every month that I will add to our regular coverage. It gives a decent reading of current conditions versus expectations of the following quarter. Today’s release for April is another sobering indicator. Current sales are going OK if fading: Profits are travelling better, pretty obviously


PCI demolishes RBA construction hopes

The AiG Performance of Construction Index (PCI) is out for April and, such as it is, is disastrous for the RBA and Treasury project of boosting housing construction to replace mining investment. I don’t entirely trust the AiG PMI series. But it hard to ignore falls like this: All of this year’s recovery is gone.


$80 billion budget black hole?

From the AFR this morning: The shortfall in forecast budget revenue will be between $60 billion and $80 billion from now to 2016, forcing the Gillard government to dump spending pledges, including $1.8 billion in family assistance. Next week’s federal budget will reveal the total write-down in tax collections in the current financial year will amount