Links – 24th Sept

Global Macro: WTO cuts global trade growth outlook ABC Excess bullishness Capital Observer ECRI Weekly indicator index growth at highest level since July 2011 dshort Olive oil up 50% in 3 months The Economist Why 2013 will be better according to Barclays eFX News North America: Schedule for the week ahead Calculated Risk Mortgage rates

Latest posts


Macro Investor this week

This week at Macro Investor we hooked into central bank action. In the wake of monetary intervention by the European Central Bank and hints of stimulus by the US Federal Reserve, the market was last week expecting QE3. What it got was beyond even its dreams: QE3, 4, 5, 6, 7 so and so forth as Ben


Weekend Links – 22nd Sept

Global Macro: IMF in the process of cutting global forecast Bloomberg Shale: a new king maker in geopolitics WSJ Funds leap beyond their benchmark WSJ Brazil may fire up tax artillery in ‘currency war’ Reuters North America: Unemployment rates rise in half of US states AP, Calculated Risk QE3 will not America’s problems, warns Paul


ASX Shares Daily – 21st September

  By Chris Becker Green green green. This QE3 rally has more dips and bumps then a dippy bumpy thing. Asian markets were up today, with the ASX200 closing above 4400 points, up 0.25% to 4408 points –  I’ll take a closer look at the bottom of the post including technical analysis of the bourse. The Nikkei 225 was up


CB Leading Index leads nowhere

The Australian Conference Board Leading Index for July was released earlier today with a zero reading, although last months print was revised up from 0.2% to 0.5%: Here’s the details of the release: The Conference Board LEI for Australia was unchanged in July following two consecutive increases. Upward revisions were made to the index from


Will Japan do to us on gas what we did to it on ore?

There’s a unsettling story in The Australian today about a Japanese push to break the oil-benchmarked LNG contract pricing system: JAPAN’S drive to sever the oil link in the pricing system for liquefied natural gas could slow development of Australia’s gas industry, oil and gas company Santos has warned, saying the current pricing system was


IMF gives the stamp of the IMF

Below is the IMF’s view of the Australian economy. It contains all of the usual backward looking upsides and down, for what it’s worth! Overview. The authorities’ current macroeconomic policy stance is appropriate. With expected inflation within the target range, the strong Australian dollar, and given efforts to return the budget to surplus this year, monetary


Macro Morning: Uncooperative economies

Data, data, data – weak, weak, weak. Central Banks are trying to goose stock markets higher but the darn global economy just wont co-operate. Yesterday we had the HSBC flash PMI for China which was again in the contraction zone. And then overnight we saw weaker still data out of Europe, which DE covers here.


Macro Investor: The Great Disconnect

Imagine you are an historian in the year 2500. Sitting back in your wing-backed chesterfield, if any still exist, and quaffing a snifter of 2480 vintage brandy, your personal favourite, you think back to the first part of the 21st century, the famous age of instability, and consider the perennial historiographical debate of that period:


Iron ore price volatility continues

Another wild day for the iron ore market with 12m swaps reversing spectacularly, spot showing less trouble and Chinese steel prices firming up.  So long as the rally in Chinese steel prices persists so too will the ore price. And on that front, the World Steel Association released its August figures today: Brussels, 20 September


Europe’s economy sinks from sight

Probably best if you spike your morning coffee before reading any further. Another night of Flash PMI data from the Eurozone, and as expected it isn’t getting any better over there. This from Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit Economics. The Eurozone downturn gathered further momentum in September, suggesting that the region suffered the worst quarter


China is winning the race to print

Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst. Many like to single out the Bernanke’s Fed’s monetary easing as reckless, irresponsible, or evil.  QEnfinity only adds to this impression of Helicopter Ben being willing to print money to the moon.  Not surprisingly, then, the US dollar suffers from the announcement of money printing. The reality, however, is that the Fed’s balance


Currency Wars, the book

James Rickards’ recent book, Currency Wars: The making of the next global crisis, is worth reading if you are interested in a history lesson of international monetary politics. As you can probably tell from the title, the book’s central thesis is that currency values are primarily the result of domestic and internationally coordinated policy decisions,


Links: 21st September

Global Macro: Aircraft carriers are awesome The Diplomat and expensive, and necessary… Commodity boom has peaked as QE3 (and BOJ QE9,10,11…) has faded Bloomberg Robert Shiller (of Irrational Exuberance fame) tears apart the econ convention on telling stories Project Syndicate North America: Jobless claims, slowing manufacturing points to stagnant economy Reuters Chart from Scotty Barber here Stocks


ASX Shares Daily – 20th September

  By Chris Becker It seems risk markets are questioning more and more the efficacy of QE3 with Asian markets slumping today, with European markets recently opening down 1% across the board. The ASX200 closed below 4400 points, down nearly 0.5% taking back yesterdays gains to 4397 –  I’ll take a closer look at the bottom of the


More on the China PMI

HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI flash estimate for September improved slightly from 47.6 in August to 47.8. Output contracted by most the in September, from 48.2 to 47.0.  Meanwhile, new orders and new exports orders recovered slightly.  Inventory build-up appears to be continuing, albeit at a slower pace.  That brings some improvement in the new orders minus inventory


China Flash PMI remains weak

China’s September HSBC Flash PMI is out and shows sideways momentum: Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 47.8 (47.6 in August). 2-month high. Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 47.0 (48.2 in August). 10-month low. Some decent news in no further deterioration and there is also some promise in the second derivatives of the leading components: This is consistent


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism. The New York Times has disturbing video of protesters surrounding the U.S. Ambassador’s Car in Beijing. The security forces look surprised but react quite quickly to protect the vehicle. But they did not arrest anyone on the spot, not even the most aggressive protester who clearly throws something at the windshield. The Chinese government,


ACCI improves, but…

From Westpac this morning comes the quarterly ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends, which is an excellent survey of industrial conditions that has all but been ignored for the last several years because industry is so yesterday. I predict that in two years this will be one of the most important economic releases in the country.


Will “the billionaires” cost us in future?

Cross-posted from The Conversation. If Australia wants to avoid the “resources curse” it needs to proactively strengthen its institutions. Left unchecked, our increased reliance on the resource sector to drive the economy could lead to a reduction in the quality of our domestic institutions and in the country’s long-term growth prospects. This is the message for


Coking coal still falling

Courtesy of ANZ. Newcastle FOB October coal prices improved slightly to USD91.8/t. BHP Billiton boosted thermal coal production in its 2012 financial year, with record high output at two of its thermal coal mines in Australia and Colombia. BHP’s coking coal data was more bearish, with a large fall in earnings at its coking coal operations in 2012 due to


Philippines buys Australian dollars (and production)

From the AFR: The finance secretary of the Philippines has confirmed his central bank is buying Australian dollars, despite Reserve Bank of Australia documents released this week which said the island nation was not a buyer. “The Australian dollar is part of it and an increasing part of it,” Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima toldThe Australian


S&P recants deficit claim

Well, here’s one the for the books. This morning S&P recants yesterday’s assessment of a Government’s deficit for 2013. From the ABC: “Our base case is for the Federal Government to return its balance to surplus in the 2013 year, and for the general government (which includes the state and local governments, and which we


Macro Morning: Currency war

Stocks reversed yesterday’s disquiet and rallied overnight after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) set up a nice rally in Asian trade by joining the free money party with the Fed. The BOJ’s action in increasing its bond buying program by another ¥10 trillion to ¥80 trillion on the back of its assessment of a further weakening in