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Links January 12: Random walk

Mish calls Australian bubble bust. MishUS foreclosure pipeline. AlphavilleUS housing headed for new low. Calculated RiskMacroprudential goes global. FT, Stephen BartholomeuszMcKibbin demands flood stimulus. The AgeMore capesize carnage. Dry ShipsContagion today: Belgium out. All else in. Gold not a bubble till $2k. BusinessWeekAlcoa sees China slowing. BloombergChina rampaging credit growth. ReutersChina’s great pile of paper.

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Why not copy Houston?

Following on from my recent articles on land-use regulations and housing affordability, I want to take readers through Texas’ deregulated urban planning system, and how this system has assisted in providing Texans with housing that is among the most affordable in the Western world despite very high population growth. Adam Smith would be proud: Possibly the best description

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Thank you !

Thank you to all the people who sent e-mails asking if I was ok in the flooding. My family and I are fine and am very lucky to live in an area of Brisbane that is unaffected by flooding for now. The situation is changing quite rapidly and many people I know and/or work with

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So we can put the undersupply myth to bed then..

The undersupply myth is not a new subject for this blog; but today we ask, has the day arrived when everyone else has finally woken up ? The property market could be set for early-year price falls due to a build up of unsold properties, with new figures by property research company SQM Research showing

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Queensland’s Disaster

Last week we asked readers to give there opinion of the Queensland floods and the effect on the economy. It was obvious that everyone, including us, thought this was going to be an utter disaster from an economic perspective. However at the time we had no idea of just how tragic this event would become.

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Uh oh, euro

Yes, that pattern could be seen as a nice head and shoulders top for the euro. No surprise, really, with Europe’s bail-ins rolling inexorably toward Portugal. As FT Alphaville illustrated so nicely overnight: …it took Greece and Ireland less than a month to request EU/IMF aid after their 10-year bond yields breached that all-important 7

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Links January 11: Next wave

Out: Spain, Italy, BelgiumIn: Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Timeline Portugal. AlphavilleEurope’s combined solvency & competitiveness crisis. Wolfgang MunchauRosenberg sticks with bonds, buys dollar. Globe and MailDollar bull. The SourceWill oil stuff the recovery? Tim DuyEra of cheap capital over. The SourceBrazil embraces trade war. FTCapesize hammered again. Dry ShipsChina December ore imports up. BloombergOMG, that’s another

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Another look at retail data

It was reported today that retail was slightly up in November. Retail spending has increased 0.3 per cent in November, after the Melbourne Cup day interest rate rise. Retail trade rose in the month to a seasonally adjusted $20.328 billion, compared to an upwardly revised $20.272 billion in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics says.

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RE Agent.. Gold coast to capitulate in 2011

According to a “Gold Coast Real Estate Veteran” his business will be doing better in 2011, because he and his other “experienced” guild members will be able to convince everyone it is time to drop the prices. Gold Coast real estate veteran Andrew Henderson has predicted that better times lie ahead for the city’s property

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What’s up (or down) with the BDI? (updated)

Coal, iron ore and grain prices are all headed one way – up. Yet the Baltic Dry Index, the generally reliable gauge of demand for bulk commodities is collapsing. Last year the BDI correctly foreshadowed and tracked the mid-year slowdown in the global economy, despite being given short shrift by many bullish commentators seeking to

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S&P spoils the party

It’s an ‘happy new year’ all around this morning. Except, apparently, from Standard and Poors who, according to Banking Day are about to downgrade our financial system: Persistently high rates of credit growth relative to GDP and seemingly high property prices could filter into lower credit ratings for banks as Standard & Poor’s revises its

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Links January 10: The more things change…

US law versus the banks. nakedcapitalismRecent US data. Calculated RiskJobs and the Fed. Tim DuyStrong Dec ISM. EconompicWeek ahead for the DOW. Calculated RiskHow the copper bubble will bust. Zero HedgeJ.P. Morgan shifts into the White House. Baseline ScenarioAnd Volcker jumps ship. DealbookIs the Loonie priced in? Forex Blog70’s bogue here again. FTFull blown contagion

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A Developer’s Perspective

My recent articles on the supply-side of the housing market have certainly aroused interest. My last three posts have each registered over 30 comments – a feat only achieved by this blog six times in 54 posts. But that’s nothing compared to my latest article on Seeking Alpha, which is a re-print of last week’s post: The

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Is the US about to stall again ?

Over the last few days a number of economic stories have come out of the US that are worth mentioning and seem to suggest that the US is about to stall again. Firstly, although the headline numbers for employment looked ok, once you got to the detail the report was not so good. The unemployment

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Oversupplied with oversupply..

We’ll say it again for the newbies. At end of every bubble there comes an admission that the “undersupply” of housing was in fact a debt driven myth that only really existed because there was an oversupply of speculators. As the market collapses these people disappear and all of a sudden there are too many

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The Great Australian Land Racket

Another interesting day on the blog front. Yesterday’s article, Planning Gone Mad, certainly stirred up a hornets’ nest of comments and emails from readers. These ranged from highly supportive to outright opposition and claims that I have pandered to right wing interests. Nothing could be further from the truth. In all honesty, I couldn’t give

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Credit …. Not so easy ?

In what could be the most under reported legislative change in Australian history, new consumer protection legislation came into effect on January 1st 2011 which seems to suggest that the days of “easy” credit are over. Access to credit has become more difficult with enforcement from this week of new laws that demand greater scrutiny

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Open forum for readers question : Flood outcomes

The Queensland floods seem to be being used as an excuse for all types of things from all sides of everywhere. Some say it will be inflationary, something we mentioned here. Others think it will be the death of China. Some are reporting that this will be a huge hit to the economy. The Queensland

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Planning Gone Mad

My previous article, The Truth about the US Housing Market, has obviously divided opinion on the important issues of housing affordability and the causes of housing bubbles. In only 48 hours, this article has been read by over 5,000 people, making it my second most popular article of all time, behind Australian Housing: a Bubble in

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Sign of the times.

A humourous sign of the times that Deep T noticed while on holiday in Queensland. Disclaimer: The content on this blog is the opinion of the author only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation, no matter how much it seems to

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Services and new housing continue fall

While a major part of the “booming” bit of the economy is currently somewhere under a lake the size of France and Germany combined, the rest of our economy continues on its merry way down the drain of a different kind. The services sector continued to underperform in December as activity in the property and

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AUD on the down, touches below parity

On New Years Eve we asked for our readers to tell us when they thought the AUD would correct against the USD. Tonight we note the multi-day downward trend and a fall back below parity. We will leave it to our readers to decide whether this is the “big one” or not. Has the Queensland

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Reader asks "How desperate is St George ?"

Mr A writes. Do you think a bank should be doing this – encouraging and inflating the housing bubble? As a “good” customer of theirs they gave me this little beauty when I logged online to check my account. Welcome to An Investors Guide to the Nation, commissioned by St.George exclusively or you as a

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Donald McGauchie’s confused message.

It is not the first time that a member of the RBA board has suggested that continuing government interference in the market would be destabilising. But as Donald McGauchie is stepping down shortly, we note he seems a little more freed up to speak his mind. RBA board member Donald McGauchie says the government’s spending

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Yet another day of confused housing numbers.

RP Data has released its latest housing statistics for November and as usual it is a struggle to match the data to the words if you have some historical context available. Drawing on more than 340,000 sales in the year-to-date, Australia’s leading measure of movements in the value of residential real estate, the patented RP

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The Truth about the US Housing Market

Last week, the United States Case-Shiller 20-cities Composite house price index took an unexpected plunge, falling 1.3% in October from a month earlier. Prices have now fallen by around one-third (see below chart). Month-over-month prices fell in all metro areas covered by the index. And in six markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – house prices have

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Another local buffet for the dragon ?

Although it is quite obvious that China currently has a foreign coal addiction, we have reported previously that it is slowly working on ways around this. Today, although a little vague, it looks like China as taken another step. Chinese scientists say they have developed nuclear fuel reprocessing technology that could effectively end uranium supply