20

Dwelling commencements continue slide

ABS released their Dwelling Unit Commencement figures today for the September quarter – down 3.3% over the quarter, and for some long-term perspective, down 17% since the peak rate of dwelling construction in September 2002. This follows significant upward revisions to the June quarter figures. This measure estimates the number of new residential dwellings that

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11

Apparently, you should buy Qantas

Why exactly one would buy into airlines remains a bit of a mystery, but for institutions focusing on the big stocks it is hard to avoid trading Qantas to some extent. Deutsche has a buy on the stock, citing potential growth in Jetstar and Qantas’ frequent flyer points business. They might as well point to

6

Is that a business loan I see before me?

ABS Lending Finance is out and shows, bugger me, some growth in commercial finance: OCTOBER KEY FIGURES Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Sep 2011 to Oct 2011 $m $m % change TREND ESTIMATES Housing finance for owner occupation(a) 14 509 14 514 0.0 Personal finance 7 150 7 181 0.4 Commercial finance 33 527 34 326

2

NAB Survey: A new normal

So, the NAB Survey for November is in and shows an economy going OK. Here are the key metrics: Confidence and conditions are range bound and pretty soft. But there is clearly an improvement in operating conditions with forward orders, stocks, capacity utilisation and exports improving. The big one, employment, also jumped but it too

53

Chart of the Day: Negative term deposit returns

Today’s chart comes from our own Rumplestatskin, who has received many requests to compile a chart comprising the real (i.e adjusted for inflation) after tax (RAT) returns on term deposits for Australian investors (click to enlarge full size): It’s quite obvious that savers have been punished since the secular shift from the turn of the

9

Developer damage

It shouldn’t really be much of a surprise to MacroBusiness readers that I have been expecting to see more flow-on effects of disleveraging. The slow down in the rate of credit issuance for housing has had quite an obvious effect on the government budget and we have also seen a slow down in retail trade.

22

Fitch: Mortgage arrears fall

Fitch has released its Q3 Dinkum Index this morning and it shows arrears falling for a second quarter. Total 30+ Days Arrears Drop: Q311 results fell for the second consecutive quarter by 17bp to 1.52%. Households have adjusted to the payment stresses of Q111, eg, increasing interest rates and natural disasters. All arrears categories within

16

Europe’s summit fizzer

I am not going to put to much emphasis on last night’s equities, given the volatility lately I am not sure there is much point, however the market response would suggest that the latest summit managed to provide that “confidence” Mario Draghi spoke of for little more than 24 hours. The ECB was forced to

20

Day of Delusional

For the past year, Delusional Economics has been MB’s point man on Europe. Throughout this period he has been miles ahead of the main stream media and, often, several kilometers ahead of the global blogosphere as well. His sectoral balances approach to analysing the crisis has opened a clear window through the ideological and political

25

Does inequality lead to revolution?

Earlier this month the OECD released a report outlining the global trends in inequality.  Given the change in the global pattern of civil unrest witnessed this year – the London riots, the ‘Arab Spring’, the Occupy Wall Street movement, and even the current Russian protests – it is worth considering the role of inequality as

18

December 13 links: Reality sucks

Up: Treasuries, $US Monstered:  euro, Aussie ,  gold, metals, ore,  energy, CRB Flat: grains Contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany

7

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed just over 1% or 46 points higher to 4249 points today after an early morning surge was sold off during the day. The local bourse seems back on track to 4350 points, the resistance level it was unable to breach throughout all of October. Risk abounds as the Italians go

20

Surplus shrinks on gold

ABS International Trade in Goods and Services for October is out  and shows a contracting surplus: OCTOBER KEY FIGURES Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Sep 11 to Oct 11 $m $m $m % change BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES Trend estimates 2 116 2 147 2 156 . . Seasonally adjusted 2 627 2

21

Housing finance weak, but…

ABS housing Finance is out for October and is ugly: OCTOBER KEY FIGURES Trend estimates Seasonally adjusted estimates Oct 2011 Sep 2011 to Oct 2011 Oct 2011 Sep 2011 to Oct 2011 Value of dwelling commitments(a)(b) $m % change $m % change Total dwellings 20 812 0.0 20 458 -2.5 Owner occupied housing 14 514

1

China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: School bus safety draft regulation released – Xinhua | English.news.cn– BEIJING, Dec. 11 (Xinhua) — A draft regulation on school bus safety management was made public Sunday by the Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council, with the public invited to submit comments on it.The draft stipulates that local governments above the

72

The tyranny of optimism

One of the more curious ironies about being an Australian is that although we pride ourselves on being misfits and larrikans, we are also rigidly conformist and prepared to lop off the head of anyone that gets too big for their boots. This irony derives, I believe, from the dominant value system of our culture.

0

This Week’s Data

It’s another very important week locally and international for data and announcements. Locally, household data in the form of monthly change in home loans on Monday and aggregate household finance statistics on Thursday must be closely watched, following the 25 basis points (0.25%) interest rate by the RBA earlier this month. Internationally, following the latest

11

Chart of the Day: US deflation held back

Today’s chart comes from Econompic and tracks how in the United States, public sector spending has offset private sector deleveraging in Q3 of 2011: There are two takeaways here. First, whilst the US private sector is outright deleveraging, this has only just begun and it still at hugely elevated levels (except college students who are

57

Auctions defy AFG data

As I mentioned early last week, AFG’s lending figures pointed to a surge in new finance activity. The problem was, as I said in the post, that there weren’t any other leading indicators that matched this trend. The housing stock on market continues to rise, albeit at a slower pace, and auction clearance rates certainly didn’t show

40

Europe’s suicide pact

So the European summit came and went. I am still struggling to see a credible transition plan from the Europe I see today to the new one that the “fiscal compact” speaks off.  The imbalances in Europe exist today as they did yesterday and although I keep reading they have achieved a fiscal union-ship, the

2

Slipping traction for Chinese stimulus

Recently, we saw the People’s Bank of China begin easing by cutting reserve requirement ratio ahead of a rather disappointing PMI figure. That 50 basis points cut made CNY400 billion available for banks to lend. It is always worth saying that central banks ease policy when things are getting bad, so for starters, I am

24

The Coroner’s dodgy statistics

There are few journalists with enough knowledge of statistics to check the facts of those making wild claims.  It has become a hobby of mine to actually check the facts, particularly of the most outrageous claims, which typically go unchallenged.  Please send any tips for future installments of Macro Media Watch to [email protected] Today’s Media Watch

2

Links December 12: Kyoto lives, EU dies

How Britain blew it. The Economist Germany vs US on Europe. NYT Farewell democracy. FP Still need the ECB says Goldman. Zero Hedge The Fed’s crisis loans. Calculated Risk  FOMC preview. Calculated Risk Week ahead for Dow. Calculated Risk Europe keeps money cheap for the US. Money Game Betting against China. WSJ Global central banks fire

50

Three systems, three currencies

The agreement between European nations overnight is of some considerable significance for the shape of the capital markets in the longer term. I have always been sceptical that the Euro will “collapse” in the way many have predicted, not because I see anything particularly wrong in the logic — yes, there are all sorts of

35

Rumple Reflections

Homelessness figures revised down by half.  Goodbye housing shortage. And when you think about it, reliably estimating this figure was always going to be a challenge. The rise of on-screen hugs. Once upon a time it shocked viewers and made news headlines if someone broke into tears on television. Wisdom of the crowd is actually

2

Weekend Links

Down: Treasuries, $US , grains, CRB Up:  euro, Aussie ,  gold, metals Mixed:  energy Flat: ore Contagion – Looks better on ECB purchases Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France

32

China’s inflation bust

So then, Chinese inflation is falling precipitously: There’ll be more big falls in the next few months too with some big numbers from twelve months ago dropping out of the series. It’s not hard to see where such a swift change is coming from: Look at that food bust go! As Zarathustra predicted last month on the

24

Europe reaches disagreement

As I expected, from Reuters, the UK has bucked the treaty changes. I assume this is relation to the Tobin tax: The European Union failed to secure backing from all 27 countries to change the EU treaty at a summit Friday, meaning any deal will now likely involve the 17 euro zone countries plus any others that want to

1

Fearful Symmetry sees a slowing India

A month ago Fearful Symmetry spent the bulk of this chronicle detailing the weakening trend in the partial domestic activity data, highlighting the weak international macro-financial and real economy backdrop and underlining the threat posed to the domestic investment cycle by protracted period of soft capital inflows.The September quarter national accounts provided some early justification for

1

China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: US Feds Falsely Censor Popular Blog For Over A Year, Deny All Due Process, Hide All Details… | Techdirt – China would be proud Should Pearson Its Buy of Beijing’s Global Education Due To Insider Trading?– Absaroka says short global education and technology $gedu because Pearson may now cancel the deal. Pearson should