Latest posts


Hockey pledges austerity

From the AFR: Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey has promised a Coalition government would be “predictable and stable” and would not engage in tax system reviews as the Labor government has. Slamming “fiscal embarrassments” like the mining tax and changes to tax perks for workers, and “blatant tax grabs” like the flood levy, Mr Hockey declared


Buy shares, says Oliver

Shane Oliver yesterday declared a good year ahead for shares. Half of his reasoning was good. The macro half, which forecasts a modest rebound for China, grinding recovery for the US (dodging the fiscal cliff) and an ongoing recession/struggle for Europe. Total growth 3.5%, up 0.5% on this year. Perhaps a bit higher than my


Macro Morning: China buoys stocks

With US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday Europe had a great night after the positive improvement in the Chinese HSBC  PMI was built upon with reasonable PMI outcomes from Europe’s big economies. The Yen also weakened substantially as well but its rally back is suggestive of an interim bottom for the moment. Looking at


How contested is LNG? Very…

Regular readers will know that I’ve been getting increasingly concerned over the prospects for Australia’s gas boom. This is based upon several coverging forces. The explosion in cheap US unconventional gas, as well as a Japanese push to break the oil-benchmark pricing system threaten long term supply contracts and double digit gas prices. BREE’s March


The PMIs warn Europe is getting worse

More Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI ) data overnight. Comments from Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit economics, sum it up nicely: The eurozone economy continued to deteriorate at an alarming pace in November, and is entrenched in the steepest downturn since mid-2009. Officially, the region saw only a very modest slide back into recession in the


Nomura: China recovery unsustainable

  Cross-posted from FT Alphaville. For quite a while now we’ve been wondering whether a quite bullish forecast by Nomura’s Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen will prove correct. They believe that China’s Q4 GDP growth will be 8.4 per cent — a big jump from 7.4 per cent last quarter. Not surprisingly, today’s flash PMI


Links November 23rd

Global Macro: Is the 200 year era of growth over? The Economist maybe, maybe not North America: Thanksgiving! Hmmm…turkey Wait – here’s a nice one to ruminate on: The United Police State of America Doug Casey Europe: Another Greece summit talking yabbing blah blah Reuters EZ faces deepest downturn since early 2009 Reuters it was all a


ASX Shares Daily – November 22nd

By Chris Becker   Risk appetite surging as US Dollar and Yen weakness continues – most of Asia is up today (except Shanghai Comp) with the ASX200 putting on a strong 1% day to finally crack 4400 points – for a full roundup, see below including technical analysis of the bourse. The Nikkei 225 is building on its breakout above


Santos pushes back on LNG sceptics

From the SMH: Santos defended its high-risk transformation into an LNG exporter at an investor briefing this morning, stressing the demand outlook for Australian gas remained strong and talking up recent exploration successes. …Chief executive David Knox said Santos’s share of these projects would amount to 3.3 million tonnes per annum of LNG – sold


Commodities daily

Courtesy of ANZ: Reports suggest Chinese buyers had defaulted on three Australian thermal coal imports and some from South Africa, but are unlikely to spark a wave of cancellations (that we saw in May/June). We remain cautious – China’s domestic stockpiles at power plants are high and many traders in China could face tight liquidity


Two speed economy continues

By Leith van Onselen Following on from Westpac’s note on state-by-state growth, published this morning by Houses & Holes, below are some charts summarising the the growth in real gross state product (GSP) as reported yesterday in the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) annual state accounts. First, the below chart shows the change in real


Gotti drills the LNG fat cats

In a glass of water for a dying man the desert, Robert Gottleibsen of Business Spectator today tackles the unfolding LNG debacle and puts the blame squarely where it belongs, on the shoulders of the executives that blew their bubble: I start my blame for the project price escalation not with the unions or the


Land values deflate across Australia

By Leith van Onselen Last month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the annual national accounts, which contained land values data for each of Australia’s states and territories, as well as nationally. This data showed that Australian residential land values relative to GDP had deflated further to 1.90 times GDP in June 2012 from


Macro Morning: Yen farewell

A quiet night for stocks which shrugged off the lack of a Greek deal in Europe and focussed on the Thanksgiving holiday coming up. The big news was really the move in the Yen which is under intense pressure across the board. Japan remains the world’s third largest economy but the data that is flowing


S&P declares Australia a “one trick pony”

London-based Kyran Curry, the long-time primary credit analyst for Australia at S&P, is back and the news is getting worse. From the AFR: “The banks are highly indebted, they’re highly leveraged, they are the main vehicle Australia uses to fund its current account deficit…Australia has, as we see it, got some credit metrics that are


Links 22 November 2012

Global Macro: The Lender of Last Resort: Lessons from the Fed’s First 100 Years – Working Papers – St. Louis Fed – Daily chart: Boom and bust – The Economist North America: Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 410,000 – Bloomberg Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 410,000 – Calculated Risk Markit


ASX Shares Daily – November 21st

By Chris Becker   A strange divergence in the Force, err… markets today with Asia (except our tiny insignificant bourse) rallying around 1%,  mainly on the back of a weakening Yen and a strong Plunge Protection Team on mainland China. The  ASX200 dropped about 16 points or 0.4% to remain be under 4400 points – for a


Morgan Stanley sees 88 cent AUD in 2013

Morgan Stanley sees the Australian dollar substantially lower in revised forecasts for 2013: We remain bearish AUD, and note that despite a fairly robust set of Chinese data over last weekend, AUD failed to make any substantial gains. Indeed, the end of the commodity super cycle and a slowing domestic economy are likely to weigh


Fearful symmetry sees an Indian crossroads

The ruling Congress Party and its UPA coalition is about to have their reformist mettle tested in one of the least forgiving arenas in contemporary democracy: the Lok Sabha. fearful symmetry feels that the winter parliamentary session, which runs from Thursday 22nd of November to Thursday December 20th, is crucial to India’s near and medium term growth prospects. It will