Data vault

Australian Data Motor Vehicle Sales Total sales of motor vehicles in Australia rose 1.1% or 995 vehicles to 88,182 in October after the falling by a revised 1.4% or 1,203 vehicles in September. The breakup of sales was a reversal of the usual trend with the sale of passenger vehicles the main driver, rising by

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Europe’s bubble decade

Last week I mentioned some recent history behind the Germany-France economic relationship that is the core of euro economics. The event I mentioned was from 2010 when the French finance minister of the time,  Christine Lagarde, made reference to the growing imbalances within the Eurozone caused by the differential between French and German macroeconomic policy:


Population growth has normalised

Yesterday’s Daily Telegraph contained an interesting article on the increasing number of Australians departing Australia permanently: OVERALL migration from Australia has soared to a record high – with 88,000 leaving in the past year, almost half from NSW. The stampede abroad is a 90 per cent increase 10 years ago, figures from the Department of


Praise for good regulation

There is enough bad regulation out there that it really should be newsworthy when good regulation is implemented.  Last week, Stephen King, arguably Australia’s best current economist, presented a report card for Australian competition regulation at a UQ luncheon in Brisbane which highlighted a few of these good regulations. For the bread and butter regulation


November 21 links: One up, one down

Supercommittee set to fail. Calculated Risk Week ahead for the Dow. Calculated Risk The run on Europe. Zero Hedge Germans hear of Irish tax increases ahead of Irish. Irish Times Hello refinancing risk. SMH ANZ’s John Macfarlane speaks. The Oz Interests swarm the MRRT. The Oz First home buyers falling. Herald Sun      


China links

Links courtesy of Sinocism: China vows closer military ties with ally North Korea amid lingering tensions on peninsula – The Washington Post – U.S.-China tension spills over into Asia summit | Reuters – China’s Wen warns outside forces off sea dispute | Reuters – China Bashing on the Campaign Trail – Businessweek – Presidential candidates love to talk tough


Market states

Binary thinking is always easy. It is also a trap, perhaps the most common. A moment’s reflection should tell us that human affairs cannot be analysed as simple antonyms: government versus markets, socialism versus laissez faire, monetarism versus Keynesianism. But the habit is hard to shake, perhaps because we inevitably tend to see things in


Next Week

What’s coming up next week in terms of data releases, announcements both locally and overseas? It’s actually a relatively quiet week, with local releases limited to National Accounts and construction data, whilst overseas, the US and UK release quarterly GDP figures. The US has Thanksgiving Holiday on Thurdsay and wake up the next day to


Weekend Links

Down: ore , $US, Treasuries, energy,CRB Up: gold, metals ,euro, Aussie Mixed: grains Contagion Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany 2


Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 81 points or nearly 2% lower to 4177 points today. In after hours trading, the index has slipped slightly, with Euro markets pointing to lower opens. Asian markets followed suit, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1% to 8392 points, the Hang Seng losing 1.93% to 18455 and the Shanghai


China property sliding

If you’re wondering why the ASX kicked down this afternoon then you need look no further than this from Bloomberg: China’s home prices fell in 33 of 70 cities monitored by the government in October, the worst performance since it expanded property curbs and scrapped the reporting of its national average housing data this year.


The flailing ECB

MB’s got a real European flavour today and rightly so with its credit market’s crisis going from bad to worse with every passing day. Of course there’s much talk abroad of the ECB electing to “print” money and begin buying sovereign debt to prevent the crisis spreading further into the banking system. I thought I’d


China links

China links courtesy of Sinocism: Where you stand on China depends on where you sit – Asia Stocks to Watch – MarketWatch – HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Hedge-fund managers in Asia are more upbeat towards China than their counterparts in the U.S. and Europe, according to industry insiders, who see a growing correlation between China outlooks


Move up buyer frenzy!

As I discussed earlier in the week, Domain has recently been trying to get first home buyers excited about the return of a weak pulse to that segment of the housing market. Today they take this conceit to the the next wave queuing up to buy: the “move up” group: Now could be a good


Who will blink in Europe’s game of chicken?

It isn’t going too well is it ? Last night Spain sold 3.563 billion euros in 10 yr bonds at a bid to cover 1.54  with an average yield 6.975% . France offered 6 billion euros worth with various maturities. They will pay an average yield of 1.85pc on €950m of new bonds maturing in


Chart of the Day: Euro probability

Today’s chart effectively sums up the Euro crisis in a fairly easy to understand flowchart and comes from Pictet’s Christophe Donay (via ZeroHedge): Although it doesn’t provide a probable timeline, the chart is illustrative, if a little optimistic in my opinion of the weighted probabilities. A fiscal union – the logical choice, but a cultural


What’s holding up the euro?

From 4cast comes this examination of the capital flows that are supporting the single currency. In recent months, there is a certain amount of evidence that repatriation flows, led by France, have had a hand in limiting the euro downside, even if this has been a case of ‘distribution’ as sellers have gladly unloaded onto


The RBA mixes its Europe signals

John Edwards of the RBA was on the hustings yesterday talking up the prospects for Australia amidst European worries. From MarketWatch: A European recession won’t be enough to seriously endanger growth in Australia and Asia as a whole, a recently-appointed board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, said Thursday. A likely European downturn


China’s slowdown spreads to heavy machinery

      FT Beyond Brics flagged a report from Bloomberg Businessweek on the pessimistic outlook from Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology’s (1157.HK) boss Zhan Chunxin, saying that “Demand for construction machinery has shrunk drastically and growth will no doubt continue to slow next year”. There are a number of things that drive his pessimistic outlook, as


The race for ‘first gas’

While debate continues around land access and groundwater contamination, the coal seam gas industry in Queensland is powering ahead in a race for ‘first gas’.  Which begs the question, why the rush? It is no secret that government is a few steps behind the resource companies in terms of providing a solid regulatory framework for


Links November 18: Awful bond sales

Up: ore (up .27% to $147.60 but 12m swaps sank .64% to $129.17, rally losing steam?), $US, Treasuries Smacked: gold, metals, euro, Aussie, grains, energy, CRB Contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5


Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 10 points or 0.25% higher to 4258 points today. In after hours trading, the index is down a 13 points, with Euro and US markets pointing to mixed opens. Asian markets had a mixed day, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up slightly by 0.19% to 8479 points, the Hang Seng


Mixed signals from the RBA on Europe

John Edwards of the RBA was on the hustings yesterday talking up the prospects for Australia amidst European worries. From MarketWatch: A European recession won’t be enough to seriously endanger growth in Australia and Asia as a whole, a recently-appointed board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, said Thursday. A likely European


Think positive

Amidst the deepening market gloom, Deutsche Bank is trying to inject some optimism. It is certainly an interesting inflection point. This kind of fear is different in that it is not fear of “normal” recession, it is fear that the system itself is fundmanetally broken. The GFC is rolling on, in other words. This fear


Margin lending collapses

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the September 2011 margin lending statistics (D10) today (but have not released household finance data (B21), which was scheduled at the same time). I’ve covered this data previously, as it is one of the sub-factors in my macro model for the Australian share market, as I explained then:


Wages boom slipping away

So, the ABS has released its two wages reports now, Labour Price Index (WCI) yesterday and Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) today and the results show a clear slowdown in trend growth. These two measure slightly different things. The WCI is defined as: The wage, non-wage and labour price indexes measure changes over time in the


China links

Links cross-posted from Sinocism. China (Country Report) in Countries at the Crossroads 2011: A Survey of Democratic Governance by Carl Minzner :: SSRN – The Trouble With Taiwan’s New Prostitution Rules – China Real Time Report – WSJ – decriminalized China’s Home Price Slide Has Analysts Betting on Government Policy Change – Bloomberg – Analysts at firms including


The delusional ECB

Last night it was the UK’s turn on the cold tap, with their unemployment figures and central bank leading the charge: UK unemployment rose by 129,000 in the three months to September to 2.62 million, as youth unemployment rose above a million. The jobless total for 16 to 24-year-olds hit a record of 1.02 million


Chart of the Day: Gold at $2000 AUD oz?

Today’s chart is inspired by a conversation with the The Bullion Baron’s whose blog has been successful in forecasting the price of gold – but in AUD instead of the oft-quoted price in USD. The dynamics between the USD, the AUD and gold are interesting, to say the least. We have seen how risk assets


Oil vs QE3

So, last night, the US October CPI deflated. Yes, month on month it fell 0.1%. Year on year was less salutary, up 3.5%. Here is the breakup: The big fall year on year was in the energy index, down from 19.3 this time last year to 14.2 this year. So, with the CPI disinflating some