Foreign buyers add to Auckland housing squeeze

By Leith van Onselen Auckland is by far New Zealand’s biggest city. It’s metropolitan area is home to around 1.5 million residents, or  roughly one-third of New Zealand’s population. It also has by far the most expensive housing in the country, with its stratified median house price hitting an all-time high of $572,825 in October

Latest posts


Macro Morning: Fear wins the day

A day when fear or caution won the day as traders found it difficult to push prices higher. Stocks were lower and the USDJPY continued its recent reversal. The Aussie is essentially becalmed but wanting it seems to break higher at some point. It’s hard to know what’s different on a Monday that isn’t apparent


Commodity currencies versus the $US

I was struck by this chart from Merrill Lynch this moring. Clearly the Australian dollar has not only decoupled from the economy and commodity cycle, it has also gone its own way versus the other commodity currencies, and how! As an experiment, here are the key metrics of each of these commodity exporters. First, interest


Ignore ratings agencies

Australia is a great sporting nation, but also being a nation that’s world-class in weight-gain, it’s a great sports-watching nation as well. From the races at Flemington to the medals at the Olympics to the mythological two flies crawling their way up the dunny wall, we love to score points as much as we love


China’s ubiquitous ghost cities

Cross-posted from FTAlphaville. One of the tentative signs of improvement in China’s economy in the past few months has been the apparent reduction in inventory of residential apartments. Real estate investment was responsible for about 13 per cent of China’s GDP last year, and is a key destination for financially-repressed Chinese household savings, so it’s an important


Links November 27

Global macro: Fresh from negotiating the Gaza ceasefire, Egypt goes up in flames. The Economist And the conspiracy theories get started on Iran and Argentina. Fistful of Euros Speaking of which, here’s how Iran could disrupt world oil supplies next month. OilPrice.com Meanwhile, the first LNG ship to cross the arctic completes its journey. BBC.


ASX Shares Daily – 26th November

By Chris Becker A relatively quiet day on Asian markets after a strong lead on Friday night fizzed out a little – the ASX200 was up 0.3% or just over 11 points – check out below for a full roundup below. The Nikkei 225 had a good start and eventually was up half a percent as the Yen strengthened slightly,


Rio is the last bull standing

By Leith van Onselen Earlier this month, Rio Tinto’s Chief Economist, Vivek Tulpule, told reporters that the firm believed that China’s economic growth would rebound and stay strong until 2020: Rio Tinto expects economic growth in China to rise to at least 8 percent in 2013 and average 8-9 percent to 2015, a more bullish


China joins the gunboat diplomats

In case you missed it, here is the footage of the Chinese landing their first ever J-15 on an aircraft carrier: China joins an elite band of powers with the capability to project force globally via parking their floating fortress off any city they like before asking for a favour. I wonder if we’ll get


SCA Property is not a yield play

From Macro Investor. It’s hard not to respect Woolworths (WOW) for the job they  have done over the past 20 years or so, building their brand  and diversifying their business to the point where they are as  ubiquitous as the Australian sun. Although they have assets and businesses outside of  supermarket retailing, their sales are


Concrete use surges in WA, NT

By Leith van Onselen On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released concrete production statistics for the month of October, which revealed a huge pick-up of concrete volumes in Western Australia and the Northern Territory – two of the prime beneficiaries of the current mining investment boom. The data is incredibly volatile and no


Deloitte’s Australian Mortgage Report 2013

Deloitte has released its annual Australian Mortgage Report 2013 today and the news is that it expects an intensification of competition in the year ahead: Australia’s mortgage industry shifts up a competitive gear 26 November 2012: The heads of mortgages and home lending CEOs and CFOs in this year’s Deloitte Australian Mortgage Report 2013, expect


Executive remuneration reform deserves praise

From the AFR: The Gillard government is set to release new laws that would require companies to claw back wrongly paid bonuses and disclose chief executives’ actual “take home” pay, at the same time as boards are shifting an ­increasing portion of remuneration into long-term pay. Leading company directors warn that the next wave of


Moody’s slaps QLD onto downgrade watch

Fresh from Moody’s: Moody’s changes Queensland’s rating outlook to nSydney, November 26, 2012 — Moody’s has changed the outlook on the State of Queensland’s Aa1 rating to negative from stable RATINGS RATIONALE The change in the outlook reflects the deterioration in the state’s financial performance which has persisted since fiscal 2007/08 and the resultant high levels of indebtedness.


Auction clearance rates dip in Victoria

By Leith van Onselen The auction clearance rate in Victoria remained just above 60% over the weekend on large volumes, although there were once again a significant number of unreported results that are likely to push the clearance rate lower as late resultsare chased-up. The Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) reported a provisional auction


Macro Morning: Stock rocket

Last week was a good week for stocks and for the first time in ages and my summary of the week’s events had more positives than negatives from the fundamental side of the equation. But this week will need to see confirmation of the moves higher in stocks because of the interrupted holiday trade and also because


The US gas triple threat

By Leith van Onselen The Sunday Age/SMH ran two articles picking-up on the looming threat to Australian coal and gas exports caused by the shale oil and gas boom currently gathering pace in the US. First, here’s David Pott’s take on the situation (my emphasis): …our sovereign debt is low by global standards, but it’s


Australian five poll aggregation

Courtesy of Mark the Graph. I have spend the past week collecting polling data from the major polling houses. Nonetheless, I still have a ways to go in my project of building a Bayesian-intelligent aggregated poll model. Indeed, I have a ways to go on the simple task of data collection. I can, however, plot


Links November 26

Global Macro: Argentina nears technical default SoberLook , more from FTAlphville Basel III: Request for Delay EU Reporter Protests erupt across Egypt after presidential decree The Guardian and the market nose-dives AP Deutsche Bank: Moody’s downgrade of EFSF on the cards eFXnews Surge of Baby Boomer savings will transform capital markets Institutional investor North America: Don’t look


Weekend links

Global Macro: Why everyone loves housing. VOX North America: Raise rates for growth. Bloomberg Q3 GDP upward revisions. Calculated Risk Fighting over phones. Zero Hedge Americans! Tough road ahead for fiscal cliff. Reuters Don’t take inflation hawks seriously. Tim Duy Europe: UK eyes Swedish bank model. WSJ EU talks collapse. FT Who cares, let’s shop! Asia: Chinese


ASX Shares Daily – November 23rd

By Chris Becker   The confusion reigns – a scratch day for most of Asia – except China – the ASX200 not moving an inch as everyone waits for US markets to reopen after thanksiving for some direction. The Nikkei 225 also stalled, probably because the weakening Yen slowed down too: The Aussie dollar continues to go nowhere although it has aa


Bye, bye China ‘stimulus put’

From the AFR: China’s incoming Premier Li Keqiang has said the country needs just 7 per cent annual growth to achieve an “affluent society” by 2020, suggesting the country’s new leaders won’t roll out a big-spending stimulus package to bolster the economy. He said China would not pursue “one-sided GDP growth” and development would be