January 30 links: Earnings gloom

Global Iran blinks. Zero Hedge United States Boehner sees another payroll extension. Bloomberg Week ahead for Dow. Calculated Risk The war on savers. Credit Writdowns Nervous retail investors. Big Picture The weakest recovery. Bespoke Four facts behind the US GDP miss. Sober Look Europe: Calm is the time to bet on euro bust-up. Reuters Greece

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Weekend China links

Coutesy of Sinocism: McConnell, Chertoff and Lynn: China’s Cyber Thievery Is National Policy—And Must Be Challenged – WSJ.com – It is more efficient for the Chinese to steal innovations and intellectual property than to incur the cost and time of creating their own. BY MIKE MCCONNELL, MICHAEL CHERTOFF AND WILLIAM LYNN Letter from China: Ai


The emerging equity gap

A McKinsey report called The Emerging Equity Gap is sketching out an important change to the global capital markets whose consequences will be profound. In 2010 global financial assets were valued at $198 trillion, with only 21% in emerging economies. $85 trillion are held by households. Only 15% of emerging market household portfolios are invested


Davos babblefest

Below find a selection of videos from Davos this week. Enjoy the crazy babblefest when you first click through. I wanted to leave it this way for the symbolism of it all. To view, wait for the ads to run then pause each video so you can concentrate on one at a time. Stephen Roach


Weekend reading

Markets: Down: $US, Treasuries, grains Up: euro, Aussie, gold, metals, CRB Flat: ore, energy Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year


Trading Day: BHP moves on

It’s fun reading the Bloomberg quotes throughout the day, as they lag (on the free site, not the terminal) the price action considerably. Asian markets were down, up and then down throughout the day, yet each headline gave the “reason” for the former move….love it.. Anyway, onto want happened without (much) bias. The S&P/ASX 200


ALP bounces on rate cut speculation

I’ve noted many times before the relationship between interest rate trends and the popularity of the incumbent government. It’s not rocket science. In a country flooded to the gunnels with mortgage debt, what would you expect? Roy Morgan is out today with more evidence that that is the case: RM do not usually include rate cuts


APM misreports own house price data

On Wednesday, the mainstream media reported on the December 2011 house price data released by Australian Property Monitors. These reports noted that national house prices rose marginally in the December quarter, breaking a year long run of negative growth. The below extract from Fairfax is indicative of mainstream media’s reporting of the APM release: HOUSE


The Australian condemns self (updated)

There’s a funny story at The Australian today. The above is a screen shot and here’s the text that we can see: AUSTRALIANS remain resistant to paying for online content and services and smartphone applications despite spending an extraordinary amount of time online outside of work and education, according to a global survey. KPMG’s latest


SME Christmas trade was OK

ANZ has released its Small Business Sales Trends report.  Highlights include: Small business sales increased by 3.3% y/y in December 2011 Year-to-date growth remains relatively flat at 1.9% Non-retail and services continue to outperform traditional retailers, with automotive(+8.2% y/y) and trades (+6.4% y/y) the best performers in December Among the retail-related small businesses, restaurants retain


The eagle stirs

Please find below former Reserve Bank of New Zealand advisor and multiple CEO, Terry “Macca” McFadgen’s, latest ‘Maccanomics’ article, which tackles the reviving United States economy. Enjoy! On June 20, 1782, the bald eagle was chosen as the emblem of the United States of America. Six years earlier at the Second Continental Congress thirteen colonies


IMF versus Swanny

I mentioned recently in my post on the IMF half yearly WEO that the IMF needed to catch up to reality in its forecasts for Australian growth and overnight they did so in a Briefing Note for the G20: The 2012 figure has been cut by 10% 0.3% to 3%. As the AFR points out: In


Market Morning

Risk markets were mixed last night, even though the US Fed gave the green light for continued stimulus, US markets were sold off later in their sessions, with Euro markets pushing forward stronger beforehand. The rationale behind the falls was the poor new home sales data and a rise in jobless claims for the week,


Portugal joins Greece

As I have explained constantly over the past 18 months, one of the fundamental problems in the Eurozone is competitiveness imbalances under the common currency. These imbalances, along with poorly regulated banking and basic financial stupidity, led to a huge build up of debt in many countries in Europe which eventually caused a crisis. In


The winners and losers of QE3

On Wednesday evening our time, the January FOMC meeting delivered the following statement: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated.


January 27 links: Fed wake

Markets: Down: $US, Treasuries Up: euro, Aussie, gold, metals, CRB grains, energy Flat: ore Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year


Australia Day links

Markets: Down: $US Up: Treasuries, euro, Aussie, gold, metals, CRB grains, energy Flat: ore Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10


Trading Day – Banks crack!

The S&P/ASX 200 Index finished strongly today, finally turning a good open into a solid day, up 47 points or more than 1% at 4271 points. The bourse stands at the each of completing the symmetrical triangle pattern, but still needs to clear the 4300 area, climbing above the 200 day moving average for this


Skilled vacancies fall again

  From the DEEWR Vacancy Report today, seasonally adjusted: Monthly Change Decreased by 3.0% to 84.1 (Jan 2006 = 100) Declined in all eight occupational groups Strongest falls recorded for Machinery Operators and Drivers (down by 4.7%), and Labourers (4.5%) Increased in the Northern Territory (up by 7.0%) and the Australian Capital Territory (1.2%) Annual


The value in BHP

The Australian economy is something of a bright spot in the developed world but its stock market is not. One reason may be that about two fifths of the ownership is foriegn and the high currency is a disincentive. Foreign investors are much more confronted by the effect of the Great Recession so more inclined


Is there a fly in the rate cut ointment?

Following my headline post on the CPI, reader PeteFaulkner rightly pointed out that I made no reference to the September quarter revision to the trimmed mean. Here it is from the ABS: In the December quarter 2011, the All groups CPI, seasonally adjusted rose 0.2%, compared with the original All groups CPI recording no change.


Leading index points to slowing economy

The Westpac – Melbourne Institute leading index of economic growth, which gives an indication of economic activity three to nine months’ time, was released this morning, and had fallen to 1.6% in November, from 2.3 per cent in October. This is the slowest rate of growth in over two years – well below the index’s


Inflation cops a donut

Breaking news! CPI for the December quarter has come in at zero with annual rate 3.1%. Bullhawks are stupified. The RBA stumped. I did warn you’ve nothing to worry about on the inflation front this year but, frankly, this figure looks slightly disturbing, hinting at quite some underlying economic weakness. Offering more hope was the


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: Cooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the South China Sea | Center for a New American Security – American interests are increasingly at risk in the South China Sea due to the economic and military rise of China and concerns about its willingness to uphold existing legal norms. The United


Pascometer burns red on property

You never know what your going to be handed in a train station: could be a ticket, maybe a price rise, even a good kicking. Yesterday for me it was a combination of all three. The ticket came in the form of a pamphlet from Lend Lease promoting a Brisbane property development. The price rise was simply


Chart of the Day: Apple in your eye

Global consumer electronics leader Apple (AAPL) reported earnings last night, with Q1 earnings more than doubling, due mainly to the iPad and iPhone products. Remarkably, gross margins improved to almost 45% (what a business!) Looking past the earnings headlines numbers, what’s important from an investment strategy point of view, is how much other investors are


Market Morning

Risk markets fell last night, as ructions over the continued debate over whether or not private bondholders should escape nearly scot-free from their bad investment choices continued, overshadowing good flash services/manufacturing PMI data from France and Germany. US corporate earnings were not disappointing, on the whole (consumers still love eating “food” at McDonald’s and using


Westpac raids the local piggy bank

From Banking Day: Westpac yesterday locked in five-year funding on terms slightly better than those obtained last week by Commonwealth Bank. Westpac said it sold A$3.1 billion in covered bonds in the domestic market, split into a $1.4 billion floating rate tranche and a $1.7 billion fixed rate tranche. The bank priced the bonds at


Germany loses its grip

And so we roll on… One of the things that amazes me about the European “crisis” is how symptoms of the underlying problems of the macro-economic system that is the Eurozone get confused with the actual problem. Let’s take the current situation in Greece for example: So as of yesterday, the EU finance ministers , the


IMF embraces Keynes

Following last week’s dire World Bank report, the IMF has now released its latest six monthly update and the reading is less dour but still pretty gloomy. The bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2012 0.75% of a per cent to 3.25%. That is still over a per cent higher than the World Bank