ASX Shares Daily – 9th November

  By Chris Becker The risk off mood continued in Asia today, although Chinese markets are buoyed somewhat in late trade on the solid (by design?) fixed asset investment and industrial production figures for October. The ASX200 lost half a percent today, mainly dragged down by houses and holes stocks – see a full roundup below.

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RBANZ holds

From the Reserve Bank of the ANZ: ANZ today announced its standard variable rate for Australian retail mortgages will remain unchanged at 6.60%pa (6.70%pa comparison rate) following its November interest rate review. Despite intense competition for business deposits, variable small business lending rates will also remain unchanged.


Chinese inflation supports recovery

China’s October inflation figures are out and are good news. The CPI came in at a comprehensively Western 1.7% year on year, down from 1.9% previously (-0.1 mom). The internals would make the PBOC (and the CCP) very happy with no sign inflation in any essentials. For me, though, even better news is a significant slowing


RBA on steel and iron ore

This morning’s SoMP may have been a dead bore but there was one interesting breakout box about China’s steel market and iron ore demand. It keeps up the pretense of endless Chinese demand (which we can take with a grain of salt) but some of the details are useful. Enjoy. rba steel


RBA to replace holes with houses

The RBA ‘s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy is out and shows what we already know that the end of the mining boom is approaching and we’re going to fill holes with houses. Here are the new forecasts: The RBA nipped a bit off growth and added a bit to inflation. There was nothing startling


Manufacturing calls for “gas gap” inquiry

The Australian Industry Group has called today a inquiry into the “gas gap”, as local gas supplies are diverted to exports and manufacturers face the prospect of dramatic price rises. Following the release of the Federal Government’s Energy White Paper, manufacturers from across Australian industry are today jointly questions about domestic gas supply and prices in light


Mortgages, transfers blast off in Victoria

By Leith van Onselen The cash-strapped and stamp duty-addicted Victorian Government might breathe a sigh of relief after Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) released data revealing a big surge in housing transfers in the month of October. It was the highest number of October transfers since 2009, with 15,336 homes changing hands, up 26%


Draghi runs out of options

[Warning the video feed will start automatically] Overnight the ECB met and left rates unchanged, their assessment is below and is choked with downside risks and concerns about the weakness of the Eurozone economy while inflation, at least in the short term, remains above the 2% target. Mr Draghi discussed the Bank lending survey, that


Macro Morning: Earnings above all

Unlike Thelma and Louise, markets are not keen on careening over the fiscal cliff and stocks were lower for a second day and the US dollar and the Japanese Yen gained. Let’s not forget though as I have been writing since the start of this Q3 earnings season that I felt the risks were that


Daily iron ore price update

Find above today’s ore price complex table. In wider news, Reuters offered a good snap shot of the dynamics in the market overnight: “Most takers of cargoes are traders who are trying to keep the market up, expecting some good news for the steel sector to come out from the China congress,” said a Shanghai-based iron ore trader.


Macro Investor: How to hedge your portfolio

For many years, too much focus in the investment industry has been on the return on your capital, or upside risk, which is to be expected given the nearly 30-year-long bull market in equities and houses; a typical Australian investor’s core source of wealth. The only trend towards a more productive use of this capital has been reducing the


More unemployment charts

Courtesy of Mark the Graph, who sure likes to plot! The ABS released the October monthly labour force survey results. The unemployment rate was essentially steady at 5.4 per cent. Given yesterday’s presidential election, I thought I would bring an electoral hue to today’s charts. The month-on-month change figures are pretty much steady as she goes. But


Are Chinese corporate profits set to rebound?

One of the most important fundamental reasons why Chinese equities under-performed for the last year or two has been the fact that Chinese companies are seeing falling profits despite seemingly “strong” economic growth. While GDP growth has only slowed to 7.4% year on year in the third quarter, corporate earnings have been recording negative growth on a


Links 9 November

Global Macro: Macca’s report first drop in monthly sales since 2003 AFR goodo for obesity, baddo for economy Global growth stabilising says IMF AFR at least they are eating some Happy Meals This is why Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater manages $138 billion Zero Hedge chart North America: The Tea Party is dead Business Insider Long live the Tea


ASX Shares Daily – 8th November

  By Chris Becker Asia responded not so well to last nights rout on US markets, with the ASX200 dropping nearly 1% or 32 points to be  under 4500 points – see a full roundup below. Other Asian markets were down more, with the Hang Seng looking like putting in a top down over 2% and the  Shanghai


Oakajee bites the dust

From the AFR: The future of the $6 billion Oakajee Port and Rail project in Western Australia has been cast into further doubt, with Japanese owner Mitsubishi to freeze spending and pare back its workforce on the troubled venture. Mitsubishi’s efforts to reinvigorate the project have been stymied by weakening iron ore prices, ongoing global


Should we burn the Energy White Paper for cheap heat?

From the AFR come details of the Energy White Paper which aims to address rising energy prices: The paper says: Productivity must improve and peak demand growth slowed to reduce prices There must be more incentive to increase domestic gas through traditional, offshore, coal seam and shale sources There will be a greater reliance on imported


China’s leadership transition live

It seems finally that one Australian business newspaper has grasped that the internet is not just a new form of distribution but an entirely new media form. The AFR is today running a neat live blog from the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. It’s worth checking out. More please.


Luke warm employment

By Leith van Onselen As reported by the Houses & Holes earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released labour force data for the month of October, which reported a -0.8% decrease in the headline unemployment rate to 5.36% from 5.44% in September, but an increase in the total number of jobs across the


NAB commercial property index deteriorates

NAB’s quarterly commercial property survey continued to deteriorate in the September quarter, not that you’d know it from A-REIT prices: NAB Commercial Property Index hits new low of -19 points in Q3’12 as domestic economy passes through a soft patch with business conditions weaker and forward indicators concerning. Retail participants least optimistic, but expectations soften most in


Unemployment flat

October unemployment is out and the headline number continues to defy expectations, staying flat at 5.4% no change on last month, expected was 5.5%: Full time jobs were up 18.7K, last month was 32.1K revised up to 34.5K. Part time jobs were down was -8K, last was -17.7K, revised down to -19K The participation rate is


Bill Evans off the fiscal cliff

Find below a neat new note wrapping up the fiscal cliff conundrum from the always good value Bill Evans of Westpac. In summary: Without an agreement over the fiscal cliff, the US is facing a potential 4ppt reduction in net government spending in FY2013 that would almost surely result in a recession. • Yesterday’s election result with


NZ unemployment leaps

New Zealand woke to nasty shock this morning with the release of its Q3 unemployment figure which rocketed 0.5% to 7.3% versus expectations of a slight fall. I have no special insights to offer into the New Zealand economy but can observe that it, like here, it’s struggling with a grossly over-valued currency: Bloomie described


Fitch: Bank exposure to a mining bust

Fitch is out with a report this morning examining the extent of Australian bank exposure to a mining downturn. Here is the summary: Direct Mining Exposure Limited: Australian banks have minimal direct exposure to the mining sector despite mining accounting for about 10% of the Australian economy in the year to 30 June 2012. Larger mining companies