By Chris Becker The risk off mood continued in Asia today, although Chinese markets are buoyed somewhat in late trade on the solid (by design?) fixed asset investment and industrial production figures for October. The ASX200 lost half a percent today, mainly dragged down by houses and holes stocks – see a full roundup below.
China October data dump continued this afternoon with industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. Industrial production was 9.6% year on year in Oct, previous was 9.2% expected was 9.4%. Fixed asset investment year on year for Oct up 20.7%, prior was 20.5%, expected was 20.7%. Retail sales year on year were up 14.5%,
From the Reserve Bank of the ANZ: ANZ today announced its standard variable rate for Australian retail mortgages will remain unchanged at 6.60%pa (6.70%pa comparison rate) following its November interest rate review. Despite intense competition for business deposits, variable small business lending rates will also remain unchanged.
China’s October inflation figures are out and are good news. The CPI came in at a comprehensively Western 1.7% year on year, down from 1.9% previously (-0.1 mom). The internals would make the PBOC (and the CCP) very happy with no sign inflation in any essentials. For me, though, even better news is a significant slowing
The Australian Industry Group has called today a inquiry into the “gas gap”, as local gas supplies are diverted to exports and manufacturers face the prospect of dramatic price rises. Following the release of the Federal Government’s Energy White Paper, manufacturers from across Australian industry are today jointly questions about domestic gas supply and prices in light
By Leith van Onselen The cash-strapped and stamp duty-addicted Victorian Government might breathe a sigh of relief after Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) released data revealing a big surge in housing transfers in the month of October. It was the highest number of October transfers since 2009, with 15,336 homes changing hands, up 26%
[Warning the video feed will start automatically] Overnight the ECB met and left rates unchanged, their assessment is below and is choked with downside risks and concerns about the weakness of the Eurozone economy while inflation, at least in the short term, remains above the 2% target. Mr Draghi discussed the Bank lending survey, that
Find above today’s ore price complex table. In wider news, Reuters offered a good snap shot of the dynamics in the market overnight: “Most takers of cargoes are traders who are trying to keep the market up, expecting some good news for the steel sector to come out from the China congress,” said a Shanghai-based iron ore trader.
For many years, too much focus in the investment industry has been on the return on your capital, or upside risk, which is to be expected given the nearly 30-year-long bull market in equities and houses; a typical Australian investor’s core source of wealth. The only trend towards a more productive use of this capital has been reducing the
Courtesy of Mark the Graph, who sure likes to plot! The ABS released the October monthly labour force survey results. The unemployment rate was essentially steady at 5.4 per cent. Given yesterday’s presidential election, I thought I would bring an electoral hue to today’s charts. The month-on-month change figures are pretty much steady as she goes. But
One of the most important fundamental reasons why Chinese equities under-performed for the last year or two has been the fact that Chinese companies are seeing falling profits despite seemingly “strong” economic growth. While GDP growth has only slowed to 7.4% year on year in the third quarter, corporate earnings have been recording negative growth on a
Global Macro: Macca’s report first drop in monthly sales since 2003 AFR goodo for obesity, baddo for economy Global growth stabilising says IMF AFR at least they are eating some Happy Meals This is why Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater manages $138 billion Zero Hedge chart North America: The Tea Party is dead Business Insider Long live the Tea
From the AFR: The future of the $6 billion Oakajee Port and Rail project in Western Australia has been cast into further doubt, with Japanese owner Mitsubishi to freeze spending and pare back its workforce on the troubled venture. Mitsubishi’s efforts to reinvigorate the project have been stymied by weakening iron ore prices, ongoing global
John Laker, head of APRA, is out today with a speech in which he announced the results of a recent APRA stress test of Australian banks. Here is the scenario and the results: The ‘what if’ scenario was built around a further deterioration of global economic conditions, with a disorderly resolution of the fiscal problems
From the AFR come details of the Energy White Paper which aims to address rising energy prices: The paper says: Productivity must improve and peak demand growth slowed to reduce prices There must be more incentive to increase domestic gas through traditional, offshore, coal seam and shale sources There will be a greater reliance on imported
By Leith van Onselen As reported by the Houses & Holes earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released labour force data for the month of October, which reported a -0.8% decrease in the headline unemployment rate to 5.36% from 5.44% in September, but an increase in the total number of jobs across the
NAB’s quarterly commercial property survey continued to deteriorate in the September quarter, not that you’d know it from A-REIT prices: NAB Commercial Property Index hits new low of -19 points in Q3’12 as domestic economy passes through a soft patch with business conditions weaker and forward indicators concerning. Retail participants least optimistic, but expectations soften most in
October unemployment is out and the headline number continues to defy expectations, staying flat at 5.4% no change on last month, expected was 5.5%: Full time jobs were up 18.7K, last month was 32.1K revised up to 34.5K. Part time jobs were down was -8K, last was -17.7K, revised down to -19K The participation rate is
Find below a neat new note wrapping up the fiscal cliff conundrum from the always good value Bill Evans of Westpac. In summary: Without an agreement over the fiscal cliff, the US is facing a potential 4ppt reduction in net government spending in FY2013 that would almost surely result in a recession. • Yesterday’s election result with
The HIA has an interesting new report out this morning. the report is long on rhetoric but rather short on evidence, sadly. It offers the following reasons for the struggle reinvigorate new home sales: Are The Ingredients There For A Recovery? At face value the ingredients are there for a recovery in new home building
New Zealand woke to nasty shock this morning with the release of its Q3 unemployment figure which rocketed 0.5% to 7.3% versus expectations of a slight fall. I have no special insights to offer into the New Zealand economy but can observe that it, like here, it’s struggling with a grossly over-valued currency: Bloomie described
Fitch is out with a report this morning examining the extent of Australian bank exposure to a mining downturn. Here is the summary: Direct Mining Exposure Limited: Australian banks have minimal direct exposure to the mining sector despite mining accounting for about 10% of the Australian economy in the year to 30 June 2012. Larger mining companies