Trading Day: 4th July

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped almost 1% on the open, but has retraced after absorbing bad retail and building figures. It is currently 33 points or 0.7% up just after midday, now at 4624 points. Other Asian markets are up following the strong lead from Wall Street on Friday, with the Nikkei 225 up 1.05% at

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RBA Commodities Index

Sorry we missed this one on Friday. RBA reports commodities are still heading for the moon Preliminary estimates for June indicate that the index rose by 1.3 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 3.7 per cent in May (revised). The largest contributors to the rise in June were


UK moves to reflate housing market

I have talked previously about how the United Kingdom (UK) operates the worst kind of housing policy – one that pumps demand while placing a tight straight jacket on land/housing supply – the outcome of which is both unaffordable housing and a propensity for boom/bust property cycles (see below chart). Now the UK Government is


Building Approvals fall 1.2% for May

The ABS has released its May data for the number and value of dwelling units approved by sector (public/private) and by state, number and value of new other residential dwelling units approved by type of building, and the number and value of non-residential building jobs approved by type of building and value ranges. TOTAL DWELLING


Retail Trade for May falls 0.6%

The ABS have released its latest monthly estimates of turnover for retail establishments. The trend estimate rose 0.3% in May 2011. This follows a rise of 0.3% in April 2011 and a rise of 0.3% in March 2011. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.6% in May 2011. This follows a rise of 1.2% in April


A busy week for data

The first week of the new financial year brings about a heavy load of data to digest, analyse and consider. With Houses and Holes still recovering, the folks at MacroBusiness will endeavour to cover this barrage of local and international data as much as we can. Here’s the tentative list for this week: From the


Links July 4: Waiting for ratings

In the world Week ahead on the Dow CalculatedRisk Thailand gains first female PM Reuters Fail-safe plan to stop US default Bloomberg Barack Herbert Hoover Obama Paul Krugman Effectiveness of QE Econbrowser  Greece gets bailout but Europe fails maths ZeroHedge Greece’s asset sales NakedCap. I’ve always wanted my own airport Rating agencies could still wreck the


Weekend Musing: The problem with democracy

It’s the weekend and I’m on my third Canadian Club. So to hell with it, I’m going to step outside my usual dry realm of equities analysis and get a little philosophical. Tonight I want to have a chat about what I see as a major flaw in modern liberal democracies – namely, their tendency


Are shares a safe bet in the long term?

Time heals all wounds. As in life, as in investing. Or so the average financial adviser will tell you. The standard argument goes as follows. If your investment horizon is long enough, any bad years in the share market will be ironed out by the upward trend over the long term. Stay the course, and


Weekly Market Analysis

Summary The S&P/ASX200 finished the week 83 points higher, up 1.84 per cent to close at 4,591 points on Friday. After one of the biggest one-day moves of the year, the market experienced a slight sell off on Friday to finish just below the 4600 points level. Monthly Analysis The market is almost replicating the


Australian Dollar Weekly Wrap

I’ve been absent from the currency space in a tumultuous week, as I was out of the office on Business,  where the Aussie tried to break the bottom of the range only to flip the shorts and rally aggressively back to 1.0783 as I write. What can we garner from the run up to and post


Weekend Links: Crisis Over… Until the next one

Down: CRB , gold  , metals , energy  Mixed:  grains Up: $US , ore, Euro,  Aussie  Sovereign movements: Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece Market Analysis Bloomberg  More bank plans to save Greece Reuters UK,FT US manufacturing expands at faster pace Bloomberg May not be as good as it sounds ZeroHedge China PMI effects WSJ US construction spending declines in May CalcRisk Syrian protests spread BBC Russia rescues


Data redux – House prices and finance

Today’s piece is inspired by the comment flow that was associated with yesterday’s piece on the RP Data – Rismark release. Specifically a little bit of apparent angst about a claim we made that, we have modelled the relationship between the quarterly moves in the ABS house price data series and the total monthly value


RPData – May analysis

As Data Sword posted yesterday the latest RPData report is out. I am running a little behind on this, but as usual I like to do a bit of analysis of the media release to find things that you won’t see reported in the MSM Capital city dwelling values declined by 0.3 per cent (seasonally


Trading Day: 1st July

The S&P/ASX 200 was slated to make further gains today, but has moved down almost 24 points or just over half of one percent just after midday, now at 4584 points. This is possibly due to the weak Chinese PMI figures (forecast at an expanding 52, came in at 50.2) and the equally important Japanese


Telstra and the NBN do a deal

A week ago Telstra (TLS) released a brief overview of the agreement reached between itself and NBN Co over the future of its network.  So a former government-owned telecommunications monopoly (turned private-sector infrastructure monolith) reached a deal on how the new, government-owned telecommunications monopoly would trash its copper network and access it’s formerly government-owned ducts


July 1 Links: Greece bounce

Down:  ore, $US , CRB , gold , grains Mixed: metals ,  energy  Up: Euro,  Aussie  Sovereign movements: Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece Market Analysis Bloomberg , Reuters Greece passes Austerity bill Reuters , BBC Now What ?  That is what I asked yesterday CreditWriteDowns Portugal’s Q1 budget deficit came in at 8.7% of GDP. This year’s target is 5.9% (2010=9.2%). New austerity measures will likely be forthcoming


RPData Index – Charted

The monthly RP Data – Rismark House Price Index was released this morning for May with the raw data showing a fall of 0.5% after last month’s fall of 0.1% was revised to -0.3%. In seasonal adjusted terms the fall in May was 0.3% after last months 0.3% was revised to a fall of 0.4%.


Future funding housing

From the Age this morning. The Future Fund has gone into partnership with a land developer to buy and develop greenfield sites on the outskirts of the major cities. West Australian-based property developer Peet Limited yesterday announced a partnership to buy land in areas of projected population growth and develop master-planned communities. The arrangement is


Trading Day: 30th June

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped almost one percent at the open this morning, and has since advanced strongly to 4580 points, up 50 points or 1.1%. Asian markets are a bit maixed, with the Nikkei 225 steady at 9796 points, and the Hang Seng up 0.95% to 22,271 points. Other risk assets are also up, the


Credit growth remains subdued

The RBA has just released its Financial Aggregates for May. It is more of the same with credit growth remaining subdued, with housing credit growing at the slowest rate in 35 years of current data and at a three month annualised pace of just 5.2%. Below is a summary of the RBA’s release with charts of


Another China ghost city filled

Back in April I published an article, China’s largest ghost cities filled, providing an ‘eyes on the ground’ report from Wendell Cox, co-author of the Annual Demographia Housing Affordability Survey, who was touring China at the time. Wendell had provided photographic evidence showing that one of China’s famed ‘ghost cities’, Zhengzhou New District, was in


June 30 Links: Now what ?

Down:  ore, $US  Up: CRB, Euro, metals, gold , Aussie , energy , grains Sovereign movements: Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Greece Market Analysis Bloomberg Timeline of Greek hurdles Reuters Greek parliament passes austerity vote BBC , more votes to come. Rioting escalates in Athens IrishTimes Re-live the day BBC S&P stands ready to cut the US Reuters IMF warns US of  ‘debt shock’  FT Obama wants


S&P strikes back

It appears yesterday’s speech by RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), Guy Debelle, has done little to allay the fears of the ratings agencies about the Australian banks’ heavy reliance on offshore wholesale funding. In today’s Australian Financial Review (AFR), Standard & Poors (S&P) issued its second warning in as many months on the banks funding


Myth: Tight rental market boosts home prices

Fellow econblogger, Cameron Murray, has written a thought provoking post on his Blog about the link between tight rental vacancy rates and home prices. Cameron’s post has been re-produced below for your reading pleasure. A common housing market myth is that low vacancy rates lead to rent increases, which lead to price increases (or at the very


Skilled vacancy data weak

The latest Department of Employment and Workplace Relations skilled vacancies report provides us with yet another weak leading indicator of employment growth. According to the latest report the trend growth in skilled vacancies fell to 2% from a month earlier where it registered a fall of 1.9%. However if we take a look at the