Weekend Links

Global Macro:  Another great presentation from Richard Koo Business Insider Why US military needs Taiwan The Diplomat Bottom for Aussie dollar? Dragonfly Cap And btw, why all the coverage of Bob Brown retiring but bugger all on Asia-Pacific issues yesterday MSM? United States: Does fracking lead to earthquakes? Bloomberg No recession ahead just cooling Prag Cap good

Latest posts


Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. In a


Reserve Bank of ANZ raises rates

The ANZ has independently raised its rates by 6 basis points (0.06%) “reflecting continued pressures on the cost of deposits and wholesale funding”. This lifts the banks new standard variable mortgage rate to 7.42% putting them above NAB (at 7.31%) and CBA (7.41%) but still below WBC at 7.46% This chart accompanies the release (find


Spainaly under pressure

Sorry for the lateness of this post, one of those days I’m afraid. Italian borrowing costs were seen rising overnight as the country moved into a second day of auctions of  bonds and bills. Of note €2.884 billion in three-year debt at a yield of 3.89% were sold. The last auction of few weeks ago came in


Majority see house price stability

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index was released today, slipping 2.3pts from 25.1 in January to 22.8 in April.  The major takeaway item – apart from the insanity around this watching of a consumption item turned into a speculative frenzy – is that majority of survey respondents thought that house prices would be either


A decelerating Dragon

More analysis on today’s China GDP print, this time from Phat Dragon, who had forecast a 8.2% rise instead of the printed 8.1%, This was much better than most of the commentariat, who have now dismissed their miss (8.4% consensus), focusing on the resignation of Bob Brown, with none (I’ve read all the majors on


More on the China GDP miss

As reported earlier, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics published the latest GDP growth figures (along with many other things that will be mentioned below). The year-on-year GDP grow by 8.1% in real terms, missing estimates of 8.4% growth.  On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 1.8% in real terms (seasonally adjusted, presumably), down from


China GDP at 8.1%

Official Chinese statistics have just been released, with real GDP (gross domestic product) for the first quarter, alongside industrial production and retail sales. Here are the quick snapshots: Quarter on quarter GDP rose 1.8%, was expected to rise 1.9% (last quarter was 2%) Year on year GDP rose 8.1%, was expected to rise 8.4% (last


REIV goes the full spruik

By Leith van Onselen “The greatest failing of the human race is the inability to understand the exponential function” – Dr. Alfred Bartlett And so it is, with the head of the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) making the following absurd claim on Property Observer [my emphasis]: The recent release of the REIV’s calendar


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: Gawker-The Chinese Government Did Censor Kate Winslet’s 3D Breasts, But The Quote You Read Explaining Why Is Totally Fake Chinese Image-Makers Race to Contain Scandal – NYTimes.com– On Thursday, a Hong Kong newspaper, Apple Daily, disclosed myriad details of Bo family dealings in line with those criticisms. His older brother, Bo Xiyong,


Commodities Daily

Courtesy of ANZ, find the full report below this excerpt: Newcastle coal front month futures fell slightly. Buying from Australia still appeared to be soft, while rising freight rates exacerbated the pull-back in activity. Instead, competitors appear to be picking up exports, with reports suggesting Q1 2012 coal supply from Colombia up 19% y/y on


12 predictions for China’s coming decade

Exclusively from Michael Pettis most recent newsletter: In the last issue of my newsletter I spoke about the economic constraints that limit China’s political options.  I argued that regardless of what Beijing claimed it wanted to do, its economic choices were largely limited either to maintaining the existing growth model, thereby running the risk of a


Chart of the Day: insolvencies rising

Cross posted with permission from Mark the Graph. The Insolvency and Trustee Service Australia is the government agency responsible for the administration and regulation of the personal insolvency system in Australia. Every quarter it releases data on personal insolvency actions. Yesterday it released data for Q1 2012. That data showed a 10 per cent increase in personal


Chinese credit accelerates in March

The People’s Banks of China has published the latest set of monetary statistics for March 2012. M2 Money supply grew by 13.4% yoy, up from 13.0% yoy in February, accelerating for two consecutive months, and was above market consensus of 13.0%.  M1 money supply growth increased by 4.4% yoy, below consensus. New Chinese yuan loans increased


Mining set to resume ad war

So, the MRRT truce is broken. From the AFR: A truce in the mining industry’s advertising war against the government – agreed when Julia Gillard became Prime Minister and offered to renegotiate the mining tax – is about to be broken with new print ads set to complain about possible new imposts in the budget.


Bad news is good news again

The animal spirits of the US equity market are on display again.  There’s been a distinct turn for the worse in US data, clearly illustrating that the US mini-boom of Q4 last year is winding down. That was confirmed again last night with the release of weekly Jobless Claims that climbed 13,000 to 380,000, the


Macro Morning

Macro Re-cap US jobless claims jumped by a “surprising” 13,000 to 380,000 to a new two-month high, which didn’t spook markets – just the economists who got their models wrong, again. Alongside this usual weekly data flow, the US trade balance figures came out, with the persistent trade deficit contracting by 12% to $46 billion


Friday the 13th April Links

For Markets and Macro data try our new morning column Macro Morning. Global macro:  World Bank cuts China growth forecasts Bloomberg GDP comes out today Iran woos oil buyers with easy credit CNN Vales sees 100 megaship capacity FT (login) United States: Its time to eliminate the debt ceiling Prag Cap US jobless claims surge


Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. The S&P/ASX200 finally put


Chart of the Day: does growth equal jobs?

Today’s (late) chart, given the overwhelming subject throughout the day has been the “surprising” employment figures, is from Matt Cowgill, and is fairly self evident – most job growth has been via part time employment, whereas full time jobs remain static:   As Matt tweeted earlier, three points come about from the numbers released today.


Has unemployment peaked?

ANZ has an interesting note out today asking the suddenly all too real question: HAS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PEAKED? •Employment rose by 44k in March, well above market expectations of +6.5k. The unemployment rate was steady at 5.2% (mkt: 5.3%), and has been broadly stable since July 2011. •In a trend sense, the multi-speed nature


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism Inside China: Murder, Xi wrote – Washington Times– WashTimes goes with the poisoning, more bodies rumors//Various Chinese sources reported that Heywood was poisoned to death by potassium cyanide. Mr. Bo’s police chief, the would-be U.S. defector Wang Lijun, at one point informed Mr. Bo of Heywood’s death and the results of his


Employment in detail

By Leith van Onselen As Houses & Holes reported earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this morning released the labour force data for the month of March and it was very good. In seasonally adjusted terms, total employment increased 44,000 (0.4%) to 11,491,200. Full-time employment increased 15,800 (0.2%) to 8,080,400 and part-time employment increased


RBA mis-diagnoses the US housing bust

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) head of financial stability, Luci Ellis, last night delivered an eye-opening speech to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2012 Financial Markets Conference. Ms Ellis lectured the American audience about why the US housing market bubbled and then busted, and explained why the Australian housing


Inflation & unemployment expectations both high

You could be forgiven for seeing that headline as a contradiction. But really, it makes perfect sense in today’s “adjustment” economy. We’ve got inflation pouring in through the mining boom. And job losses mounting in the old services economy. Anyways, these are the results of today’s Westpac Melbourne Institute Expectations Survey. First up, inflation expectations


Jobs, and lots of ’em!

The ABS just released its Labour Force Survey for March and the results are another slap in the face for employment bears (including me!): MARCH KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased to 11,465,700. Unemployment increased to 626,800. Unemployment rate steady at 5.2%. Participation rate steady at 65.3%. Aggregate monthly hours worked increased to


Fed’s Yellen awful dovish

From Calculated Risk comes the following excerpts from an overnight speech by the Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen: I see no good reason to doubt that our nation’s high unemployment rate indicates a substantial degree of slack in the labor market. Moreover, while I recognize the significant uncertainty surrounding such forecasts, I anticipate that growth in


El-Erian on unsustainable central bank policies

Perhaps a small warning within the lecture given by PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian at the St Louis Federal Reserve last night for those who think our own central bank should go down a similar road to other developed nations. This is a marvellous speech, available in full here. Here are the key points, beginning with his


Ore hot, coal not

The twin pillars of Australia’s boom, iron ore and coking coal, continue to diverge. Yesterday the iron ore price broke more decisively out of its post crash trading range, up half a percent or so to $148.70. To say the least, this is a finger in the eye for China bears. Here is the spot