Links Sep 23: Bernanke’s fires up the whirlybird

Gavin Davies notes that the US FED has overturned decades of hard yakka and has now committed itself to making inflation rise. He concludes “…it is not difficult to see why the dollar has been falling, and gold rising”. But Chris Whalen goes bananas on declining profitability in the US banking system and declares ahead

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The CentralBankopian perspective

Given quite a few articles we have been reading over the last few weeks, we have decided it is time for another little visit to CentralBankopia and get another perspective on things.If you are not already aware of CentralBankopia we recommend you firstly read this and this and this Most traditionally educated economists and economic


Captain Glenn.. Softly Softly

Previously has warned, and then he warned again. Did anyone listen ? Today we note that Dun & Bradstreet report that debt reached yet another record in June, so it looks like noone did. Consumer debt rose to record levels in the June quarter as defaults on commercial leases increased in spite of improving economic


Clowns can’t say "de"

As we have been saying ever since we started our blog the US has had an asset shock and if history is any measure they will incur a deflation cycle. In yet another repeat of the great circus performer getting things wrong; we talked in this post about a paper we found where the great


Queensland’s sneaky houses

Back in 2007 Queensland was announced as one of the most undersupplied property markets in Australia where prices and rents were set to surge due to the lack of properties. Since then we note that the population has been growing strongly. A final state government analysis shows Queensland’s growth rate was 2.6 per cent in


Determined denial

Everyone has seen the ads. A sturdy and commonsense banker confronts a troupe of American advertising hot shots. The banker responds with steady incredulity to their fast and loose attempts to modernise his brand. He is the model of prudence, juxtaposed against faddish spin doctors. In the real world, Commonwealth Bank executives are travelling internationally


China, Interest Rates and more European Debt

In a follow up to a little post yesterday about China’s iron ore demand we note today that customs data from China matches what we said. China, the world’s biggest iron ore consumer, imported 19.4 million tonnes of iron ore from Australia in August, down 16 per cent from July, customs data showed on Tuesday.


Hedging.. Not the Garden variety

We thought we would try something a bit different. We are getting approximately a thousand page impression per day at present, so we think we may have reached a large enough audience to start asking a question or two. We will leave this post at the top of template for a while to see how


Has the dragon discovered a local buffet?

We note today that once again news of the unhungry dragon is leaking out. Again you won’t find this news in mainstream media but the trend is continuing. Spot prices of iron ore slid to their lowest in seven weeks with no signs demand from China, the biggest market for the steelmaking material, will pick


Up to their eyeballs in it ?

In an interesting merge of a couple of our latest posts we note that Karen Maley has outed the RBA for having vested interests in talking down the Oz housing bubble. According to data from the Australian Tax Office, only 13 per cent of taxpayers are claiming rental income, which represents a slight increase from


Weekend Links

Just a few links before we enter into another busy weekend. Goldman are still out spruiking their report, this time at Business Spectator. Oz property bulls are now warning about interest rates rises. The HIA are once again calling for government intervention. US consumers are still unhappy with 16% unemployment. Who could have guessed ?


Stop complaining, you all earn $100K

In the last couple of days the “not-so-mainstream” types that report on the economics of Australia have been reporting on the fact that CBA seems to have “sweetened up” the figures about Australian house price to income ratios in order to make a presentation to an international investors group. Many of the overseas investors have


Ric and the world

Busy day today so we only have a little time for this post. We will discuss this in more depth at a later time. We went and saw Ric Battelino speak today. He was far more bearish than we expected, he even said the words “bubble”, “demand”,”property” and “Queensland” in the same sentence. He gave


CBA on notice

Just a quick note to inform our readers that CBAs data fudging that we mentioned here, has now become a mainstream news item appearing on the SMH web site this morning in two different articles. Here and here. David Llewellyn-Smith, who often writes for business spectator, has the most interesting article. Looks like CBA will


Government policy and wealth transference

For some time now we have been discussing the bizarre policy of the Australian government of incentivising one generation into property speculation to the detriment of another (and ultimately the economy) As we have said previously. It would now take the average young person 4.5 years just to a save the deposit for a average


CBA: Desperately Seeking Housing Affordability

Last week, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) – Australia’s largest bank – released a presentation on the Australian housing market to support an upcoming overseas tour by senior management who are meeting overseas investors. The CBA’s press release for the presentation read as follows: Australian Residential Housing Sydney, 9 September 2010: Senior executives from the


Lunch with Ric Battellino

We have been invited by a member of the young economists group to a lunch to hear Ric Battellino, the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, talk. Given that he is a member of the RBA and somewhat bullish on Australian housing it should be interesting to hear him speak, and we will


Oz Real Estate and the desperate banks

Firstly we note today that Chris Sayce has caught out the CBA attempting to “fix up” some data before it presented it to overseas investors who they need to fund Australia’s housing addiction. We also note however they are not alone in their desire to “represent” Australian property in a much kinder way. Yesterday we


Oh Lordy.. US jobless claims data.

We just noticed this paragraph in an bloomberg article this morning. Initial jobless claims were forecast to decline to 470,000, and projections ranged from 460,000 to 482,000, according to the Bloomberg survey. Nine states didn’t file claims data with the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day holiday, a department official told reporters


Vulcan Economy ( Humour )

Sorry we can’t resist this one. A couple of paragraphs from an article by Karen Maley in a Business Spectator article made us all chuckle to ourselves. The extremely bearish Societe Generale global strategist, warns that there’s an extremely nasty surprise ahead for complacent investors. “The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then


Austerity in Action

Sometime ago we talked about the “Greek Delusion” at the hands of the IMF and EU/ECB economics. We actually got a couple of e-mails about it which we will not inflict on our readers. Here is what we said If Greece cannot improve its current account balance ( which is nearly impossible given that it


Oz RE trying to recover ?

Today we note that a number of media outlets are attempting to add some much needed froth to an otherwise worrying property market in Oz. HOME and mortgage sales jumped 11 per cent in August as homebuyer confidence strengthened and mortgage delinquencies stabilised. While the Reserve Bank kept official interest rates on hold yesterday, home


Oz RE .. Now everyone has gone.

Today we are suprised. A domain property site article that could almost be read as bearish on Oz Property. At first it was the first home buyers that gave up, then it was the upgrader and it was only a matter of time before “investors” realised the game was up as well. With Australia’s residential


Death by perceived wealth

Some time ago we made comment on the macro-economic outcome for a country that hung its economic future on property ( or other kind of ) speculation. A country with debt-driven bubbles usually becomes less productive over time because they tend to be focussed on non-productive assets. The populous is happy to give away its


Back to Europe

So for now the financial markets seemed to have decided that the latest US job report means that all is good in the US. However we note with the heat off the US, Europe’s economic woes are back in the spotlight. While the Europeans are celebrating the end of the financial crisis, something strange is


Canadian Housing: Another Debt-Fuelled Bubble?

Canada and Australia have a lot in common. Both economies are commodity exporters. Both countries largely dodged the global recession that has recently shocked the developed world. And both countries are said to have world-beating banking systems, with Canada’s ranked as the strongest and Australia’s ranked third strongest in the world by the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010. As


Oh what a suprise !!

Today we note that mainstream Kochie has decided to tell everyone that there are just too many houses for sale in Oz. Surely this can’t be true we have a housing shortage !!! As we have been saying for months, the Australian is reporting that we actually don’t. We can only chuckle to ourselves that