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New home sales tank

The mining sector is about to get a whole new batch of construction workers to choose from if the HIA new home sale report for June  is any guide. The index collapsed to GFC levels. The HIA has this to say: New home sales suffered their heaviest monthly decline in five years in June 2011, providing

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14

Manufacturing tanks

The adjustment we all had to have is going gangbusters now. Having been in recession for the better part of a year, manufacturing activity fell off a cliff in July. Here’s what the mild-mannered folk at the Australian Industry Group had to say about the ongoing extinction of their members: ■ Manufacturing activity slumped in

6

TD-MI Inflation, higher than comfortable

The monthly TD-MI Inflation guage has just been released with a rise of 0.3% in July up from the flat result last month. This has kicked the year on year change up to 3.2% and, for those of us who like to try to interpret charts, the chart below suggests the period of pullback/consolidation in

39

Turning a soft landing hard

Sigh. I apologise for the ceaseless battery of bearish outlooks this morning but damn, that’s the way the world is going, and I’m not going to “pull a Yardney” and pretend it isn’t so that yours and my hard earned capital goes up in smoke. This morning we have two excellent pieces on the debt-ceiling

51

Melbourne’s Miami connection

A few months back I had dinner with an American hedge fund manager. The fund had made good returns shorting the United States and Irish housing markets, and was undertaking reconnaissance of Australia’s capital city housing markets to determine whether similar shorting opportunities were available. In the days prior to the meeting, the fund manager

14

Europe plans its next crisis

With the economic world firmly focussed on the US debt debacle this week it is likely that Europe will slip off the radar a little. I suspect, as many people do, that for the US there will be an eleventh hour resolution followed by a short lived bounce in the world markets. Once that bounce

5

Deadlines, debt and downgrades

Find below an excellent note from Westpac covering the fallout from various scenarios emanating from the US debt-ceiling debacle. The note is both useful and entertaining, with Russell Jones of the rates strategies team nicely capturing the absurdity of the situation.

4

Chart of the day: Gold top

Today’s chart comes from The Bullion Baron, who considers gold (in USD) to be in a possible short term top, although he contends (and I agree) that over the medium to long term, gold is likely to go higher from here (particularly if the debt ceiling is raised but not sure, if US spending is reduced):

3

August 1 links: Blather goes on

Blather goes on. Bloomberg Wall St mobilises. NYT Meanwhile, in the global economy…Zero Hedge US economy below stall speed. Gavyn Davies Planning for a Treasury default. Alphaville Shitty GDP US style. Alphaville US productivity boom vanishes. Innovation and growth China won’t dump US debt. Patrick Chovanec Gaddafi getting stronger. Guardian Jawboning the RBA. SMH A new survey! Gittins!

19

Time to take stock

Exactly how did we get into this mess with the capital markets? A situation where the global stock of derivatives is over $US600 trillion, which is about twice the capital stock of the world. A situation where high frequency trading is over two thirds of the transactions on the NYSE and about the same in

6

Data Vault – The data that mattered this week

Australian Data A big week in Australia with the PPI and CPI data probably scaring the heck out of RBA staffers mid-week but House Price data and RBA Credit Aggregates at week’s end reminded us all that whatever you think of the mining boom and its long-term impact, the reality is that Australian households remain in

6

Chart of the Week

This week its a trio from an extensive report compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) – Australian Economic Indicators – link is here. The publication contains statistics under the following headings: national accounts, international accounts, consumption and investment, production, prices, labour force and demography, incomes and labour costs, financial markets, state comparisons and

3

Australian Dollar Weekly Wrap

This week we saw the AUD break higher but not quite go on with it. I got stopped out of my long from the break of 1.0790 with a nice profit but I’m also long from the break of 1.1012 and a bit nervous on that one. And the USD continues to tank as the world

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Weekend Links: Waiting for the day after

Up: ore, gold, metals ,Euro Flat: Aussie Down: $US, energy, CRB, grains PIIGS suffer while Core rests: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year

30

June house price analysis

As Data sword stated earlier today the latest RPData media release is out today. As per usual I like to look beyond the headlines. Across the combined capital city housing markets, the rate of home value declines continued to moderate with values in June falling 0.2% in seasonally adjusted (s.a.) terms. The relatively flat June result follows

20

Market Earnings Season

The full year earnings season for listed companies on the ASX is upon us. MacroBusiness will endeavour to report earnings and surprises on the relevant ASX200 stocks, particularly the banks, retail/discretionary and resource companies as they come through over the next month or so. This post will be updated continously with links to the announcements,

7

Next Week: rates rising (updated)

With no resolution to the US debt crisis, a larger than expected CPI print, and general instability across world markets, what’s coming up next week in terms of data, announcements and the like? Locally, the RBA Meeting on Tuesday will be watched, scrutinised and verbosely commented on by all (including here at MacroBusiness, but we

19

CBA’s online retail report

  CBA have released an excellent piece of research this morning that helps demystify foreign online spending by Australian consumers. The research is drawn from the bank’s credit card and merchant businesses. It’s a must read this one. Full report below. A million customers can’t be wrong There has been a dearth of reliable data

16

Trading Day: bears have won

The S&P/ASX 200 opened slightly higher this morning on mixed messages from overnight equity markets, but has now slumped to a 10 month low, at 4447 points, down 0.37%. Other Asian markets are experiencing smaller losses, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.13% at 9888 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.18% at 22534 points. Other

29

Disleveraging becomes deleveraging

The RBA has released June Credit Aggregates and it’s getting ugly. According to the bank: Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries decreased by 0.1 per cent over June 2011, after rising by 0.3 per cent over May. Over the year to June, total credit rose by 2.7 per cent. Housing credit increased by 0.3 per

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House prices slide on in June

The RP Data-Rismark house price data for June is out and it’s basically an unchanged trend down. Seasonally adjusted, prices fell 0.2% (compared to 0.3% in May whilst the raw numbers slid 0.6% (compared with a revised 0.6% in May). The slide is looking rather like 2008, before the rescue. Delusional Economics will return later

22

A bullhawk macrobated?

Well…probably not. But spare a thought for HSBC’s Paul Bloxham, who, having predicted an August rate rise all year, and only pushed out his predicted timeline for a hike a week or more ago, suddenly finds his fellow bullhawks (Joye and Carr) taking to the higher atmospheres, screetching for an August move. This morning he

10

Chart of the Day: PE or not PE

That is the question: today’s chart(s) are from Wilson HTM’s recent research on Australian equities which was prompted by Sell on News recent article on what is the fair value of the ASX200/All Ords? (h/t Damien for supplying the report) The first chart shows the All Ords trailing Price/Earnings ratio going back to 1959: Most

76

I am beneficent

Yesterday, to tremendously little fanfare, the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, released his Discussion Paper for the tax summit to take place in October this year. Find the document below. There is not much point going into the full details of the document. Most of it is framework and fluff. And, really, given the extraordinary pressures that

43

How the RBA board will vote

When you survive financial markets long enough you learn to hold strong views but be flexible enough to change your mind when the outlook changes and change your positioning when the market moves against you. With more than 2 decades playing this game and having been completely blindsided by the RBA on July 31st 1996 I

7

More rent hawkishness

RP Data a few days back released its June Quarter Rental Review. The report provides a detailed summary of the nation’s rental markets, both at the capital city and regional levels. Consistent with the June Quarter APM Rental Report, released last week, RP Data confirms that rental growth has stalled after a solid run-up between

18

The vintage of Brisbane real estate

After Wednesday’s CPI announcement I received a phone call from a friend who I consider a perma-bull on houses. We have had many verbal jousting matches in past years about the future of housing and I doubt very much during those discussions whether I was listening to him or he was listening to me. The

12

29 July links: Farce goes on

        Up: ore, $US  Flat:  gold, energy  Down: , Aussie,  metals , CRB, grains, euro Italy and Spain headed to highs: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year

50

ANZ backflips on rate rise

Yesterday’s unaninmity among the banks that there will be no rate rise in August has lasted a full 24 hours with ANZ rolling over and going all in: RBA TO LIFT RATES BY 25 BPS TO 5.0% IN AUGUST  ANZ now expects the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25bps to 5.0% in August.

6

ASX fair value

  The two speed economy is starting to define the thinking of brokers. Merrill Lynch looks at the reporting season and makes a few fairly obvious observations about where the weaknesses lie. Merrill argues that uncertainty is the theme: in earnings and valuations. They argue if there is no growth in earnings for several years