Banks unanimous in calling no hike

Here are the respective analyses of the economics teams at ANZ, Westpac, CBA, NAB and HSBC. All conclude there will be no hike in August but that the risk for Q4 has increased. That will be revelation to you but the details of the respective analyses are useful. Westpac Aust 2011 Q2 CPI +0.9%qtr, 3.6%yr; average RBA

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Trading Day: CPI weighs

The S&P/ASX 200 opened slightly lower this morning and began to claw back losses before the 11.30 CPI announcement. The market has stabilised and is down 15 points or 0.3% at 4557. Other Asian markets are experiencing small falls, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.5% at 10041 points, and the Hang Seng steady at 22568


No rate rise

The acceleration in both headline but more particularly core inflation will be of concern to the RBA. It is likely, however, that the high inflation number will result in interest rates remaining on hold, rather than precipitate a hike. The rationale behind that view is that the price increases are not demand related which means consumers


CPI comes in hot

JUNE KEY POINTS THE ALL GROUPS CPI rose 0.9% in the June quarter 2011, compared with a rise of 1.6% in the March quarter 2011. rose 3.6% through the year to the June quarter 2011, compared with a rise of 3.3% through the year to the March quarter 2011. OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS The most


Fitch downgrades Queensland

I’ve doubted the resilience of the Queensland economy for some time now. Back in April I asked if Queensland was headed for recession on the back of the failing real estate market. Today I note that Fitch has joined me in those doubts. Fitch Ratings-Sydney/Barcelona-26 July 2011: Fitch Ratings has revised the State of Queensland’s (QLD)


Abusing money for power

For me, the most remarkable part of writing The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut was diving into the murky depths of Wall St’s extraordinary manipulation of money. In the book, we called this “Clever Money”. It was the story of how, over many years, Wall St took the plain vanilla process of securitisation,


The great depression

Glenn Stevens spoke to the Anika Foundation yesterday with a speech called “The Cautious Consumer” and I hate to be a stick in the mud but I reckon he tried to explain why consumers are doing what they are doing but at his and the RBA’s core they just don’t get it.  The RBA is still tied into the idea that incomes are rising and so should spending,


Chart of the Day: EUR breakout

With the ridiculousness of the US debt ceiling theatrics still playing out, the markets are having none of it. See below for the breakout in the Euro against the USD: And the GBP against the USD: Of course, things haven’t changed for the de facto “gold” standard of currencies, the Swiss Franc (CHF). This 41


China’s believe it or not

After last week’s China update, which focussed on the massive malinvestment taking place within the Chinese economy, I received a number of articles from readers for inclusion in this week’s round-up. Thanks for everyone that sent articles in. If you find any articles that you wish to be included in next week’s summary, feel free


Chinese housing inventory climbs

After continuous rounds of curbs, real estate inventories in various cities have been rising to records on the back of thin volume, although prices are still holding pretty well, according to Xinhua. Unsold inventories in Beijing reached 107,000 units as of 20 July, according to the report, which would take almost 15 months to clear based on the


July 27 links: Loving a US default

Up: ore, gold, Aussie, euro, energy , metals , CRB, grains Down:  $US  Contagion mixed: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany 2


Moody’s warns on Aussie housing market

Try as I might, I can’t find any reference in the Australian media (could be wrong) to a press release this afternoon by Moody’s warning of trouble ahead for the Australian housing market and a review of RMBS ratings. Thankfully in New Zealand they still seem to breathing (via Alex Tarrant at Interest.co.nz): Sydney, July 26, 2011


Glenn Stevens macrobated

Well, so much for being the lunatic fringe. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered a seminal speech on the Australain consumer this afternoon and regular readers can pretty much throw it away. They have read it here for the past six months. Glenn Stevens has been “macrobated” (that is, converted to,


Trading Day: all the way with USA

The S&P/ASX 200 opened higher this morning and has built on those gains, now just over 1% or 47 points higher at 4577. Other Asian markets are experiencing modest gains, with the Nikkei 225 steady at 10054 points, and the Hang Seng up 0.8% at 22482 points. Other risk assets are up, with the AUD


Glenn Stevens on the cautious consumer

Find below the full text of Glenn Stevens speech this afternoon. The Cautious Consumer Glenn Stevens Governor Address to The Anika Foundation Luncheon Supported by Australian Business Economists and Macquarie Bank Sydney – 26 July 2011 Thank you for coming out once again in support of the Anika Foundation.[1] I want also to thank in


The bizarre retail debate

One of my favourite journalists, Adele Ferguson of The Age, today calls for a retail bailout: Other figures show that online spending is going gangbusters. There is an estimated $12 billion a year spent in online retail, but it could be much higher than this. Domestic online sales have been growing at 5 per cent


Trading the Guv’

Westpac offers a neat little observation this morning: The RBA Governor will today deliver a speech to the Anika Foundation  on ‘Issues in Economic Policy’. Recall in 2009 that it was this platform  that was used to shift the Bank’s stance away from an easing bias. Over the past 18 months, the Governor has made


Chart of the Day: US growth

Todays chart is courtesy of dshort.com, which has charted the Chicago Fed National Activity Index release for June (PDF here). The data has been smoothed out using a 3 month average. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a


Out of time

While markets remain fixated with the debt ceiling debacle in America, I am more concerned with Europe. We’ve had just two days of gains in European sovereign bonds and already the yield blowout has resumed. Both short term and long term Italian bonds were under pressure overnight: The same for Spain: It was the same


The RBA trumpets disleveraging

Yesterday Malcolm Edey, 
Assistant Governor (Financial System) of the RBA gave a speech to the Property Council of Australia. I’ve been asked to speak today about the general economic and financial environment in Australia. I’ll leave it to the other panellists to talk more specifically about the property sector. As you know, the Australian economy


The bullet proof Australian dollar

We have talked often in this space about the idea that the Australian dollar has undergone a rerating over the past year or so and that, as such, will, indeed has, held up better than could have been expected recently given all the turmoil. On Saturday in the Weekly Wrap, I discussed the big positive


Invisible and harmless are not synonymous

There seems to be a lot of confusion around on this “carbon tax” and a lot of it seems to be due to the terminology that we’re using. I have been asked a few times “what is carbon pollution and how do you measure it”. I’ve also seen a variety of commentators pointing out (as


July 26 links: Contagion returns

Up: ore, gold (red and yellow metal!) Flat: Aussie, $US  Down: euro, energy , metals , CRB, grains Contagion returns! Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year


Brokers turn bullish on banks

The banks are nearing levels where they might be a buy accrding to a report by Credit Suisse. It raises an interesting question. CS is not particularly bullish on bank earnings, but believes the sell off has been overdone. That means that it is not rating the risk potential (of a severe housing correction) which, while it


Access goes all in on rate rises

Boy, do we have a market in interest rates. From Bloomberg: Australia’s central bank will increase interest rates three times in the coming year as a mining boom boosts wages and helps the economy recover from natural disasters, a Deloitte Access Economics report showed. High resource prices and strong demand will boost Australian incomes and there


Trading Day: US unravels

With the US theatrics over debt ceilings continue into the opening of the Asian markets this morning, the S&P/ASX 200 slumped almost 1% and is now 42 points or 0.93% lower at 4560 points. Other Asian markets are experiencing similar losses, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.6% to 10068 points, and the Hang Seng also


Uncle Sam’s self sabotage

I like to think of myself first and foremost as a behavioural economist – someone who tries to understand how our “humanness” impacts on our economic decisions and intereacts to create the economy in which we live. So I’m always thinking not as people as rational actors but as emotional beings who have biases and aversions


Producer prices ease, but…

JUNE KEY POINTS FINAL (STAGE 3) COMMODITIES increased by 0.8% in the June quarter 2011. mainly due to rises in the prices received for building construction (+1.2%), petroleum refining (+10.3%) and other agriculture (+7.9%). partly offset by falls in the prices received for industrial machinery and equipment manufacturing (-2.0%). increased by 3.4% through the year


Australian stagflation

Late last week, the venerable Melbourne Institute released its Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends. In it, the economists of the institute predicted that Australia is headed back to the seventies with a bullet: Policy dilemmas ahead … In contrast to other forecasters, we have cautioned for some months now that GDP growth is likely to be