Data Vault – The data that mattered this week

Australian Data A big week in Australia with the PPI and CPI data probably scaring the heck out of RBA staffers mid-week but House Price data and RBA Credit Aggregates at week’s end reminded us all that whatever you think of the mining boom and its long-term impact, the reality is that Australian households remain in

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Chart of the Week

This week its a trio from an extensive report compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) – Australian Economic Indicators – link is here. The publication contains statistics under the following headings: national accounts, international accounts, consumption and investment, production, prices, labour force and demography, incomes and labour costs, financial markets, state comparisons and


Australian Dollar Weekly Wrap

This week we saw the AUD break higher but not quite go on with it. I got stopped out of my long from the break of 1.0790 with a nice profit but I’m also long from the break of 1.1012 and a bit nervous on that one. And the USD continues to tank as the world


Weekend Links: Waiting for the day after

Up: ore, gold, metals ,Euro Flat: Aussie Down: $US, energy, CRB, grains PIIGS suffer while Core rests: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year


June house price analysis

As Data sword stated earlier today the latest RPData media release is out today. As per usual I like to look beyond the headlines. Across the combined capital city housing markets, the rate of home value declines continued to moderate with values in June falling 0.2% in seasonally adjusted (s.a.) terms. The relatively flat June result follows


Market Earnings Season

The full year earnings season for listed companies on the ASX is upon us. MacroBusiness will endeavour to report earnings and surprises on the relevant ASX200 stocks, particularly the banks, retail/discretionary and resource companies as they come through over the next month or so. This post will be updated continously with links to the announcements,


Next Week: rates rising (updated)

With no resolution to the US debt crisis, a larger than expected CPI print, and general instability across world markets, what’s coming up next week in terms of data, announcements and the like? Locally, the RBA Meeting on Tuesday will be watched, scrutinised and verbosely commented on by all (including here at MacroBusiness, but we


CBA’s online retail report

  CBA have released an excellent piece of research this morning that helps demystify foreign online spending by Australian consumers. The research is drawn from the bank’s credit card and merchant businesses. It’s a must read this one. Full report below. A million customers can’t be wrong There has been a dearth of reliable data


Trading Day: bears have won

The S&P/ASX 200 opened slightly higher this morning on mixed messages from overnight equity markets, but has now slumped to a 10 month low, at 4447 points, down 0.37%. Other Asian markets are experiencing smaller losses, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.13% at 9888 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.18% at 22534 points. Other


Disleveraging becomes deleveraging

The RBA has released June Credit Aggregates and it’s getting ugly. According to the bank: Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries decreased by 0.1 per cent over June 2011, after rising by 0.3 per cent over May. Over the year to June, total credit rose by 2.7 per cent. Housing credit increased by 0.3 per


House prices slide on in June

The RP Data-Rismark house price data for June is out and it’s basically an unchanged trend down. Seasonally adjusted, prices fell 0.2% (compared to 0.3% in May whilst the raw numbers slid 0.6% (compared with a revised 0.6% in May). The slide is looking rather like 2008, before the rescue. Delusional Economics will return later


A bullhawk macrobated?

Well…probably not. But spare a thought for HSBC’s Paul Bloxham, who, having predicted an August rate rise all year, and only pushed out his predicted timeline for a hike a week or more ago, suddenly finds his fellow bullhawks (Joye and Carr) taking to the higher atmospheres, screetching for an August move. This morning he


Chart of the Day: PE or not PE

That is the question: today’s chart(s) are from Wilson HTM’s recent research on Australian equities which was prompted by Sell on News recent article on what is the fair value of the ASX200/All Ords? (h/t Damien for supplying the report) The first chart shows the All Ords trailing Price/Earnings ratio going back to 1959: Most


I am beneficent

Yesterday, to tremendously little fanfare, the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, released his Discussion Paper for the tax summit to take place in October this year. Find the document below. There is not much point going into the full details of the document. Most of it is framework and fluff. And, really, given the extraordinary pressures that


How the RBA board will vote

When you survive financial markets long enough you learn to hold strong views but be flexible enough to change your mind when the outlook changes and change your positioning when the market moves against you. With more than 2 decades playing this game and having been completely blindsided by the RBA on July 31st 1996 I


More rent hawkishness

RP Data a few days back released its June Quarter Rental Review. The report provides a detailed summary of the nation’s rental markets, both at the capital city and regional levels. Consistent with the June Quarter APM Rental Report, released last week, RP Data confirms that rental growth has stalled after a solid run-up between


The vintage of Brisbane real estate

After Wednesday’s CPI announcement I received a phone call from a friend who I consider a perma-bull on houses. We have had many verbal jousting matches in past years about the future of housing and I doubt very much during those discussions whether I was listening to him or he was listening to me. The


29 July links: Farce goes on

        Up: ore, $US  Flat:  gold, energy  Down: , Aussie,  metals , CRB, grains, euro Italy and Spain headed to highs: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year


ANZ backflips on rate rise

Yesterday’s unaninmity among the banks that there will be no rate rise in August has lasted a full 24 hours with ANZ rolling over and going all in: RBA TO LIFT RATES BY 25 BPS TO 5.0% IN AUGUST  ANZ now expects the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25bps to 5.0% in August.


ASX fair value

  The two speed economy is starting to define the thinking of brokers. Merrill Lynch looks at the reporting season and makes a few fairly obvious observations about where the weaknesses lie. Merrill argues that uncertainty is the theme: in earnings and valuations. They argue if there is no growth in earnings for several years


Wesfarmers sales up, prices down

  Wesfarmers has come out with a retail update that includes some good-looking sales numbers given Australia’s “cautious consumer” meme. The results by retail area are summarised in the tables below (sourced from the Wesfarmers update):  Full year FY11   Fourth Quarter FY11    The year-on-year details are as follows. Food and Liquor  Sales growth of 6.3%


Trading Day: a waiting game

The S&P/ASX 200 slumped this morning on overnight falls from other equity markets, and has stabilised at 4485 points, falling 1.2%. Other Asian markets are experiencing similar losses, with the Nikkei 225 down 1.05% at 9941 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.8% at 22354 points. Other risk assets are steady, with the AUD consolidating


Another “affordability” study

  Below find the new National Centre for Social And Economic Modeling (NATSEM) report into housing affordability. The report is both quite good and quite frustrating. It acknowledges the severe unaffordability of the national housing market but never uses the word “bubble”.  As such, it provides some very good overvaluation assessments but fails completely to canvass


Chart of the Day: Gold ceiling

Today’s chart from Bloomberg puts the political and economic debate regarding the US Debt ceiling into perspective. I’ve seen many “correlation” charts explaining why gold in USD goes up – but this one has at its heart a simple thesis. “Increasing the debt limit means you print more dollars” I’ll let the MMT’s debate that


China’s crumbling infrastructure model

  China’s high-speed rail accident has attracted a lot of attention.  Even the FT Lex coloumn has something to say about it, believing that the pace of investment should be slowed.  While I have been arguing here for a while that investment has to be slowed, it is rather harder to see if the “accident” can


The horns of a dilemma

Yesterday’s CPI number sent the Bullhawks (Carr, Joye, Bloxham) into the stratosphere. The leader of the group, Chris Joye, had the following to say on his blog: Well, as predicted here more consistently and loudly than pretty much anywhere, Australia officially has a major inflation problem. And I mean “major”. Underlying or core inflation has


BIS chief pushes the housing envelope

Earlier this month, the Chief of BIS Shrapnel, Dr Frank Gelber, gave an interesting interview on Switzer on the outlook for the housing market (click to watch video). The key discussion on the housing market starts from 5.15, where Dr Gelber says the following (paraphrased): The doomsdayers are “discredited”. “That was crazy stuff… they have


Bulls, banks turn pathetic

Yesterday Michael Yardney the director of Metropole Property Investment Strategists penned a property piece in Smart Company that began: I’ve decided that I’m not going to participate in the property downturn and I would like you to join me. By now you are probably sick of hearing about the economic wows of the world and how Australia’s economy has


July 28 links: More slowing

Up: ore, $US  Flat:  gold, Aussie,  metals , CRB, grains  Down: euro, energy  Contagion on for the bigguns: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year


Australian dollar upside targets

The Aussie has broken the major resistance level and this year’s high at 1.1013 today in the wake then the higher than expected CPI. While it hasn’t really gone on with it yet this break, if sustained, is important in the overall context of where the Aussie might be headed. Look at the long term