Chart of the Day: Peak oil

Today’s chart comes from Gregor.US and offers a glimpse of global oil production at a seeming peak: Today, in 2012, I observe that many analysts of global oil production—and the interaction between oil prices and the global economy—continue to engage in a guessing game about the future. But, frankly, the future has already arrived. And it

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US economy stumbles

In mid November I wrote a piece called Can the US consumer carry us all. It was following the release of good October retail sales growth and argued the following: This demand appears to have caught producers off guard, or, they have been managing inventories rather well. The September wholesale inventory number last week was low and


The big spruik goes on

I am not going to spend to much time on this post because most MacroBusiness readers would already be aware of the issue. However, in case you don’t know one of my pet peeves is the liberties available to the Real Estate industry because their agents do not have to conform with the Australian Financial Services Licencing Act.


January 31 links: Risk returns

Markets: Up: $US, ore Down: euro, Aussie, gold, metals, CRB, Treasuries, grains, energy Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany


Fitch dumps big banks onto negative watch

In a move that will probably take the markets a little by surprise, Fitch has just announced it’s placing the big four on negative ratings watch owing to funding pressures and commodity exposure: Fitch Ratings-Sydney/New York/Singapore-30 January 2012: Fitch Ratings says that in conjunction with its broad review of the largest banking institutions in the


Bloody pessimists

Last week I asked a couple of times what kind of economic narrative Canberra is going to adopt given talk of a mining “boom” doesn’t make much sense when folks are losing their jobs. Perhaps we now have an answer from Swanny via News: Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan has conceded that employment growth may not


China holds rates

From Bloomy: China (CNGDPYOY) signaled caution toward more monetary loosening by holding off on a reduction in bank reserve requirementsthat some economists had predicted would come before a week-long holiday ending Jan. 28. Barclays Capital Asia Ltd., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Industrial Bank Co. said this month that ratios were likely to fall ahead of the Lunar New


The mining boom is big

I was doing a little ABARE report reading recently and came across these two images which show just how big the Australian mining boom is and how much pace it is gathering. The first is a graphical showing the major development projects in Australia as of October 2010 (full report here). The second image is


RP Data: QLD leads unsold homes

Today, reader AxeIF posted a comment linking to the latest RPData Industry Market Wrap, which provides the following tables showing the Advertised Stock on Market and the Number of Properties Advertised for Rent. Turning to the Stock on Market first, you can see that the number of homes for sale nationally is up by 35%


Banks will need to issue unsecured debt

Following H&H’s post early this morning, Macquarie is casting a sceptical eye over bank funding, arguing that the domestic issuance of covered bonds is only buying time for the major banks and pointing out that unsecured lending will have to start again at some point: Given the recent covered bond issues, the depth of the domestic Government bond market


European M3 hints at perpetual recession

Something I neglected to mention in this morning’s post ( sorry there was just too much to say ) was Friday’s release from the ECB of Eurozone monetary aggregates. I have provide the press release at the bottom of the post, but the highlights are fairly self explanatory: The annual growth rate of the broad


Comparing house price declines, again

On Friday at its blog, R.P.Data produced an interesting comparison of house prices across a number of Anglosphere markets. The first three years of US home prices coming down could be characterized as a reasonably steep downwards trajectory.  Using a compounding growth rate, between April 2006 and April 2009 the annual rate of decline averaged


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: Rogue aid: Should we fear China’s aid programme? | vox – Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists – The fact that Chinese aid is driven by political and commercial motives is not outstanding in international development cooperation. Managing in Asia: China Eyed as Next Educational Frontier; John A. Quelch: China Europe


Government cheques don’t bounce

Check out the chart below. It’s of the breakup of the US GDP with the last bar being the results for the 4th quarter of 2011 released Friday night. I got it out of The Atlantic on Saturday Morning and tweeted it. The reason I was so excited, well not excited really but rather whatever


Chart of the Day: Moderating GDP

To start the week off, today’s chart comes from Scotty Barber at Reuters, and shows the volatility in US GDP growth (gross domestic product), with two historical periods clearly marked. The Great Moderation from the mid 1980’s to the GFC was well-named but transitory (a fact lost on most market economists who pine for the


Local bank funding decoupling

There are a couple of stories around this morning about the pressure on bank funding. Firstly from Banking Day: Margins in banking declined by around 10 basis points over the last six months, Mike Hirst, the chief executive of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, said in an interview with Business Spectator. Hirst told the website that Bendigo’s


Data vault: better but still weak

Australian Data Producer Price Index Inflationary pressures in Australia continued to soften in the fourth quarter with final producer prices rising 0.3% which was a touch weaker than the 0.4% that was expected. The three previous quarters saw outcomes of 1.2% in Q1, 0.8% in Q2 and 0.6% in Q3. The entire gain in producer prices was


Data for the Week

The local corporate earnings season rolls on this week, with Resmed the only major ASX200 company to report. This will turn into an avalanche of reports as February rolls on. The focus on local data will be the release of private sector credit figures on Tuesday, followed by building approvals on Wednesday, with trade and


Interest rate nonsense

There’s a couple of articles about today from veteran commentators looking to make headlines rather than sense. The first is by Peter Martin who argues or quotes from someone who argues, that Israel is a terrific leading indicator for Australian interest rates: Could Israel hold the key to next week’s Australian decision on interest rates?


Germany declares war on Greece

In the lead up to the previous EU summit there were statements from a number of participants that it would be the “summit to end all summits” as it would provide a comprehensive plan for the future of Europe. As I noted at the time, that summit certainly didn’t meet expectations with the “comprehensive plan”


Melbourne’s apartment glut builds

A few weeks back I reported how Melbourne rental vacancy rates, as recorded by SQM Research, have ballooned to 4.4% – a six year high: Yesterday, the Sunday Age published an interesting article, Rental squeeze begins to ease, which adds some colour on the rental apartment glut that is developing in Melbourne. MELBOURNE’S rental market


January 30 links: Earnings gloom

Global Iran blinks. Zero Hedge United States Boehner sees another payroll extension. Bloomberg Week ahead for Dow. Calculated Risk The war on savers. Credit Writdowns Nervous retail investors. Big Picture The weakest recovery. Bespoke Four facts behind the US GDP miss. Sober Look Europe: Calm is the time to bet on euro bust-up. Reuters Greece


Weekend China links

Coutesy of Sinocism: McConnell, Chertoff and Lynn: China’s Cyber Thievery Is National Policy—And Must Be Challenged – WSJ.com – It is more efficient for the Chinese to steal innovations and intellectual property than to incur the cost and time of creating their own. BY MIKE MCCONNELL, MICHAEL CHERTOFF AND WILLIAM LYNN Letter from China: Ai


The emerging equity gap

A McKinsey report called The Emerging Equity Gap is sketching out an important change to the global capital markets whose consequences will be profound. In 2010 global financial assets were valued at $198 trillion, with only 21% in emerging economies. $85 trillion are held by households. Only 15% of emerging market household portfolios are invested


Davos babblefest

Below find a selection of videos from Davos this week. Enjoy the crazy babblefest when you first click through. I wanted to leave it this way for the symbolism of it all. To view, wait for the ads to run then pause each video so you can concentrate on one at a time. Stephen Roach


Weekend reading

Markets: Down: $US, Treasuries, grains Up: euro, Aussie, gold, metals, CRB Flat: ore, energy Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year


Trading Day: BHP moves on

It’s fun reading the Bloomberg quotes throughout the day, as they lag (on the free site, not the terminal) the price action considerably. Asian markets were down, up and then down throughout the day, yet each headline gave the “reason” for the former move….love it.. Anyway, onto want happened without (much) bias. The S&P/ASX 200


ALP bounces on rate cut speculation

I’ve noted many times before the relationship between interest rate trends and the popularity of the incumbent government. It’s not rocket science. In a country flooded to the gunnels with mortgage debt, what would you expect? Roy Morgan is out today with more evidence that that is the case: RM do not usually include rate cuts


APM misreports own house price data

On Wednesday, the mainstream media reported on the December 2011 house price data released by Australian Property Monitors. These reports noted that national house prices rose marginally in the December quarter, breaking a year long run of negative growth. The below extract from Fairfax is indicative of mainstream media’s reporting of the APM release: HOUSE


The Australian condemns self (updated)

There’s a funny story at The Australian today. The above is a screen shot and here’s the text that we can see: AUSTRALIANS remain resistant to paying for online content and services and smartphone applications despite spending an extraordinary amount of time online outside of work and education, according to a global survey. KPMG’s latest