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Data Vault

Australian Data ANZ Jobs Ads Total jobs ads according to the ANZ job ads report fell for the 4th straight months and 6th time in the past 7th months in October where they fell by 0.7% with the annual pace of growth slowing to 1.8%. However since peaking in March jobs ads have fallen 7.2%

Latest posts

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Chart of the Day: Bear market recap

After reading my report on the Aussie share market, as you still not sure what a secular bear market is? Would you be surprised that the US share markets are 11 years in to a secular bear market? (whereas our own is only 4 years old) Today’s chart comes from Doug Short’s weekly update of

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Europe eats itself

Over the weekend both Greece and Italy replaced their leaders and formed new governments, all without elections. In Greece Lucas Papademos has taken the reins and in Italy Mario Monti has been given the top job by the President. Both men face an uphill battle to turn their country’s economies around. Given the circumstances in which

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Our economic model is dated

Throughout this year, I have posited that Australia is now a one speed economy – slow. That this has transpired amidst a mining boom has amazed and befuddled economists and media alike. But it’a really not all that hard to understand. Offsetting the mining boom is a huge and unprecedented slowdown in the issuance of

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The plunge in Chinese bank deposits

China’s latest monetary statistics could suggest that there is some easing as loans growth surprises on the upside.  But it contained one real shocker: household deposits fell by RMB727 billion. This has happened before, as deposits shift out of banks deposits to wealth management products.  Those products are off balance sheet, and most probably outside

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Is Australia complex enough?

Specialisation as an instrument of economic growth is close to an undisputable fact.  Whether there are limitations to this process, I am not sure, but for me there is a more significant question that really needs a satisfactory answer if we are to understand economic growth – if specialisation causes economic growth, what causes specialisation?

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November 14 links: The more things change

US downside risks. Calculated Risk Week ahead for the Dow. Calculated Risk Super committee is coming to upset the party. WSJ EFSF buys its own bonds. Zero Hedge Oh dear No EBC intervention. FT The Italian job. Gavyn Davies Gillard bounces back. Phillip Coorey I have noted before the correlation between interest rates and popular government Qantas to

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History resumes

If nothing else, the European crisis is bringing us back to a timeless reality: power is what matters in human affairs. My esteemed colleague Houses & Holes has long argued for the importance of looking at political economy; the intersection of finance, business and politics; the true matrix of power. It was always a compelling

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Next Week

With the ongoing now Italian led European crisis, and following the possible start of a new easing cycle in rates by the RBA, what’s coming up next week in terms of data, announcements and the like? Locally, Lending finance figures on Monday plus building approvals will be scrutinised and overseas, GDP and CPI figures from

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Weekend Links

Up: ore, energy ,gold,metals ,CRB , euro, Aussie Down: $US, grains Flat: Treasuries Contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany 2

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 52 points or 1.2% higher to 4296 points today, after a sideways morning session followed by strong bids in the afternoon. In after hours trading, the index has fallen 10 points, with Euro and US markets are pointing to modestly higher opens. Asian markets had a mixed but generally

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It’s the imbalances, stupid

Followers of my daily Europe posts would know that I consider macroeconomic imbalance within Europe to be THE major issue that needs to be tackled before we can see any real resolution for the continent. It seems that my favourite man at UBS agrees but is also thinking even more broadly. Over to George Magnus. UBS

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The big spruik returns

Back in August this year I highlighted one of my pet peeves, which is the utter contempt the media and real estate industry seem to have for basic ethics by using real estate industry participants in news stories as first home buyers without declaring their interest. Macrobusiness has since been represented in both The Monthly and

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European fallout in emerging markets

Below find a new report from 4cast looking at which emerging markets are in the way of the European liquidity squeeze. Italy moved into meltdown yesterday – if steadying this morning on better political news – and this has been cascading onto panicky sales in semi-core today on spillover effects and ill-advised chatter on euro

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Inflation expectations plummet

It’ll be no surprise to any one still breathing that inflation expectations dropped over 19% in one moth from October to November. From the Melbourne Institute: The median expected inflation rate, reported in the Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations, fell to 2.5 in November from 3.1 per cent in October. According to Dr.

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S&P thanks you for supporting the banks

On a number of occasions in recent months, I’ve pointed to the elevated cost to investors of insuring their Australian bank debt via CDS. There is a pretty clear relationship between that rising cost and European troubles. The chart above shows you what I’m talking about (the price today is 181). CDS prices signalling something

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Chart of the Day: Crude divergence

Today’s chart plots the CRB Index, a weighted basket of 19 commodities, against the two major crude oil products, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and ICE Brent Crude. The horizontal orange line was the support area for the CRB during the minor correction throughout the 2006-07 lows, before the large bubble in commodity prices through 2008,

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Contagion heads to France

After 4 days of politicking Greece finally has a new short term leader: Greece named former European Central Bank vice-president Lucas Papademos on Thursday to head a crisis government, ending a chaotic search for a leader to save the country from default, bankruptcy and an exit from the euro zone. A somber Papademos called on Greeks

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Expect the revolution to grow

Back in May, former Reserve Bank of New Zealand advisor and multiple CEO, Terry “Macca” McFadgen, wrote a guest post on MacroBusiness entitled: Will Aussie housing go bust?. He then followed up in August with Big trouble ahead. Now Terry is back with another serving of ‘Maccanomics’. In this installment, Terry provides a sobering assessment

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Fat bonuses don’t work

We’ve heard quite a bit about the new ‘two-strikes’ rule on executive pay in the media since an amendment to the Corporations Act, to toughen executive remuneration conditions, was passed in July.  This amendment was the outcome of a Productivity Commission inquiry into executive remuneration released in January this year. While more accountability to shareholders

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Deconstructing China’s trade data

The General Administration of Custom of China published the latest set of trade figures yesterday.  First, on a month-on-month basis, both exports and imports fell.  Exports fell by 7.2% in October on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or –1.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while imports fell by 9.5% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or +3.2% on

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November 11 links: Orel good

Up: ore, energy Down: $US, Treasuries, gold, CRB, grains, metals Flat: euro, Aussie, Contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany 2

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 102 points or 2.4% lower to 4244 points today, reacting to Italian bond dramas overnight. In after hours trading, the index has fallen another 10 points, with Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly lower opens. Asian markets had a bad day, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down nearly

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Consumer confidence falls on rate cut

This afternoon, Roy Morgan released its first consumer confidence survey since last week’s rate cut and it shows a small deterioration. Obviously much of the gain transpired in advance. Will be interesting to watch as Europe descends: Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 116.4pts, (down 0.4pts in a week) according to the Roy Morgan Consumer

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The mining boom is over

There is something of a revolution brewing in Australian economic thinking just now. It began several months ago when the RBA suddenly stopped talking about inflation and started considering stimulus. The change of heart is that the minnig boom is not delivering the kind of inflationary blowoff growth that everyone outside of MB and the

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Is Myer a buy?

The fate of the big retailers is very much a pointer towards the health of the economy — and vice verca. A number of analysts are looking at Myer which is providing a read on both the economy and the underlying state of the stock market. The picture is for the most part pretty neutral,

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AFG vs O/O housing finance

As H&H  mentioned,  the ABS updated housing finance data yesterday. The dataset that was updated is the ABS 5609 which contains the breakdown of housing finance for owner occupiers. In order to get the full picture, including the breakdown of investor financing, we need to wait for the ABS 5671 dataset, but it will not be updated until

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 and Goldman

Continuining again our focus on the US S&P500 stock index, today’s chart come from Goldman Sachs (via Zero Hedge): This chart says a 1000 words, but for those not sure what’s going on, its seems the ca. 1.5% cut to US GDP coming next year (courtesy of austerity), has been priced in the consensus forward

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Unemployment steady

Looks like I got a bit ahead of the market earlier in the week. No evidence yet of a further weakening in the labour market, even if the various marginal indicators are showing it. Unemployment was stable at 5.2%, with 20k full time jobs created and 10k part time lost.  Here’s the details from the