Vulcan Economy ( Humour )

Sorry we can’t resist this one. A couple of paragraphs from an article by Karen Maley in a Business Spectator article made us all chuckle to ourselves. The extremely bearish Societe Generale global strategist, warns that there’s an extremely nasty surprise ahead for complacent investors. “The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then

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Austerity in Action

Sometime ago we talked about the “Greek Delusion” at the hands of the IMF and EU/ECB economics. We actually got a couple of e-mails about it which we will not inflict on our readers. Here is what we said If Greece cannot improve its current account balance ( which is nearly impossible given that it


Oz RE trying to recover ?

Today we note that a number of media outlets are attempting to add some much needed froth to an otherwise worrying property market in Oz. HOME and mortgage sales jumped 11 per cent in August as homebuyer confidence strengthened and mortgage delinquencies stabilised. While the Reserve Bank kept official interest rates on hold yesterday, home


Oz RE .. Now everyone has gone.

Today we are suprised. A domain property site article that could almost be read as bearish on Oz Property. At first it was the first home buyers that gave up, then it was the upgrader and it was only a matter of time before “investors” realised the game was up as well. With Australia’s residential


Death by perceived wealth

Some time ago we made comment on the macro-economic outcome for a country that hung its economic future on property ( or other kind of ) speculation. A country with debt-driven bubbles usually becomes less productive over time because they tend to be focussed on non-productive assets. The populous is happy to give away its


Back to Europe

So for now the financial markets seemed to have decided that the latest US job report means that all is good in the US. However we note with the heat off the US, Europe’s economic woes are back in the spotlight. While the Europeans are celebrating the end of the financial crisis, something strange is


Canadian Housing: Another Debt-Fuelled Bubble?

Canada and Australia have a lot in common. Both economies are commodity exporters. Both countries largely dodged the global recession that has recently shocked the developed world. And both countries are said to have world-beating banking systems, with Canada’s ranked as the strongest and Australia’s ranked third strongest in the world by the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010. As


Oh what a suprise !!

Today we note that mainstream Kochie has decided to tell everyone that there are just too many houses for sale in Oz. Surely this can’t be true we have a housing shortage !!! As we have been saying for months, the Australian is reporting that we actually don’t. We can only chuckle to ourselves that


GDP. Debt, gambling and property.

Today the postmortem of the Oz GDP continues. The bulls are chanting that it proves everything is great and the bears are noticing that it is debt driven and lopsided growth full of future risk. We note that it isn’t just debt, it is gambling as well, to the detriment of retail. Retail sales are


Is OZ real estate ready for the GDP ?

Today we note that once again Australia is flying ahead of the OECD in terms of reported economic strength. Mining is adding to terms of trade, however although it gets most of the media, it is in fact only about 5% of econonmic output. The biggest input to GDP is the good old Australian consumer


OZ property, trouble in funding and policy.

As we mentioned earlier today, many Australians cannot see a problem with the current state of the Australian housing market and are even trying to convince others that there is a chance of further growth. Unfortunately it seems that the people providing the funding aren’t convinced. Concern that Australia’s property market is overheating is prompting


Oz real estate .. Trying hard to keep it going.

Trends.. That it what is important to concentrate on when analysing economic data. Making predictions based on a single data release can get you in all sorts of trouble. Today we noted that many are ignoring that rule in order to “keep the dream alive” for Oz housing. After a large 1.0% seasonally-adjusted fall in


Taxmen always tell the truth.

We noted previously that if you want the truth about an economy you need to ask the taxman. Today we note that the Australian Taxman has something to say. THERE are strong reports coming out that small business debts to the Australian Taxation Office have ballooned in the last 12-18 months. This is as a


"re-pricing" sure to catch on

We note that bloomberg is reporting that U.K. home values dropped in August by the most in 16 months as the housing market endured a “modest re-pricing” that is likely to last as long as a year. “re-pricing” the new word for “falling”, sure to catch on with all international property spruikers. Funnily enough demand


More clowning about

Firstly thanks to “Traveller” for his efforts in keeping the blog alive while we were on tour in NZ. Now back to business. We note today that world markets had a bit of a flurry on the back of the “the clown’s” words about providing more “help” to the US economy. This always amuses us


Morgan Stanley on OZ Real Estate

It seems that finally some of the bigger boys have some comments to make about the OZ property market. Gerard Minack from Morgan Stanley has some interesting comments to add to the mix in his “Australia Strategy and Economics” paper from mid August. I have a copy of the paper if anyone is interested (e-mail


Just how bad is housing in the US?

Great, so ED can manage more posts from NZ than I can. Oh well. Last week I read this piece by Robert Gottliebsen which got me thinking about something I read by David Rosenburg on the plight of US housing. “In the U.S.A., we received more news today that the housing crisis is far from


Safe as (straw) houses

Whilst I was on vacation escaping the bitter Melbourne cold, Morgan Stanley Chief Strategist, Gerard Minack, released an excellent research article on the Australian housing market, entitled Living in a Bubble. Mr Minack’s article received widespread coverage in the press (for example, see here and here), so it is likely that many Australian readers are aware of his analysis already. And fellow


A little more from NZ

Almost at the end of our holiday now, just did a quick glimpse of bloomberg to discover that nothing has changed in our absence. All the same stories still hovering around, Europe, Japan , US all tredding water , nothing fixed. We note the “Jackson Hole gathering” of many of the world’s central bankers over


Postcard from across the pond.

Here we are staring at Mt Hutt from our hotel in Methven laughing out loud about the “goings on” back in Oz. The government looks like it may be formed, with the deciding vote being Bob “big hat” Katter from Mt Isa. Personally we think he is a complete lunatic, but you have got to


Election eve thoughts

Well it’s the guest blogger here that ED has unwisely left the keys to this fine blog with. I do feel as though I’ve let him down by not commenting earlier but unlike him I must sleep at least once a day. Still it could be worse – I could be a real economist but


Population Ageing is Bad News for the Housing Market

In Bringing it Home, I argued that demographic factors have played an important role in creating Australia’s housing bubble and that these same factors are likely to contribute to a house price correction in the future: “One of the key drivers of Australia’s strong house price growth has been the Baby Boomer generation’s rampant buying of investment


On Blogging and on Holiday

We are taking a short break from blogging for the next 2 weeks as a holiday across the pond in New Zealand is calling our name. We will try not to think too hard about economics while we are visiting “middle earth” in the south island of NZ. We may have a chance to find


Oz Property Insight…. What’s that noise ?

Today we were sent an e-mail by “Cameron” in response to our latest post on Real Estate in Oz. Cameron has got his hands on the latest property report from Matusik Property Insight. They are a Brisbane based company who claim to be “Real estate strategists specialising in new residential development advice”. Like most property


Austerity … What did they expect ?

As our daily readers would know we are not for or against government deficits as long as the countries are issuing debt in their sovereign currency. We do this because we try not to focus on the “money” aspect of macro-economics. The real currency of governments is GPEC. Money is simply a tool used to