Media revolutions

You live in a media duopoly. This has certain shortcomings. The first is that when one side does something,  the other will invariably follow. Today’s example is Fairfax shifting to a freemium model, following the News move of some months ago. But there is another problem. The media duopoly is a reflection of a broader

Latest posts


China property price falls ease

See above today’s May China property price data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The number of cities registering price falls on  a yearly basis increased but on a monthly basis increases rose in all three dwelling categories. It’s clear that, for the time being at least, price falls are moderating (at least on this


Will the Fed unleash the boob?

This one is a bit late owing to this morning’s round of media bashing but it’s still important to cover (to say the least). The Fed meets Thursday our time and the question of whether or not more milky wilkies (quantitative easing) will be forthcoming will be important for markets. Let’s take a look. All


New car sales bounce

The ABS has released April new car sales and they show good growth up 2.4% up in May from April and 22.4% year on year. Here’s the month on month chart: Of course, there always a catch and today it’s a big one, most obvious in the year on year chart: See that last big


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism. Is there a temporary solution to the Huangyan Island/Scraborough Shoal dispute between China and the Philippines? In China hails PH pullout from Scarborough Shoal the Philippine Daily Inquirer reports: The withdrawal of a Philippine Coast Guard patrol vessel and a Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) survey ship on Friday ended the standoff after two


Bulk commodities still mixed

In recent days we seen a number cross-currents in the bulk commodities. On the positive half of the ledger, the spot  iron price (white) and 12 month swaps have based (yellow) , as have Chinese steel prices (purple and green). The recovery is quite muted as this point, no doubt reflecting generally weak global economic


Fairfax to erect paywalls

Wow. From the SMH: Fairfax Media will cut 1900 staff and erect paywalls on the websites of its two main metropolitan newspapers as it adjusts to shrinking advertising revenue. Fairfax, publisher of this website, will also shift to compact-sized versions for those two newspapers, The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, from the first quarter of 2013. The


Consumer rate cut expectations rise

Westpac has a note out this morning looking at expectations for future rate cuts at large: Most Australians expect mortgage interest rates to decline over the next year but the consensus is not strong. • The Feb, Jun and Aug Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer surveys include an extra question about expectations for mortgage rates over the next 12 months. The


A bullhawk departs this earth

Don’t say I didn’t warn you. When the GDP figure came out two weeks ago I advised going long bullhawk rhetoric. Last week we were subjected to some extraordinary drivel at Business Spectator, where the bullhawks make their nest, and today another feathered bovine screetches completely free of this earth and into a fantasy world of unicorns,


Mixed signals for financial stability

In what looks like a co-ordinated leak to offset any Greek jitters, David Uren at The Australian today carries a simple statement that: THE government is confident our banking system can withstand everything that Europe can throw at it without needing the guarantees that forestalled a bank run during 2008-09. The Financial Regulators Council has


QLD mortgage volumes off the canvas

By Leith van Onselen Last week, the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) released data on housing transfers and mortgage lodgements. Like the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment statistics analysed last week, which showed ongoing deleveraging, the DERM data is current to May 2012, so it leads the Australian Bureau of Statistics


MacroBusiness Morning

by Chris Becker  Macro Wrap A quick update this morning on what happened Friday night, not that the market cared – all eyes were/are on Greece, not data! Delusional Economics will have a wrap of the Greek action, but as he explained to me late last night, the real action remains in Italy and Spain


A moment’s respite in Europe

As I type about 75% of the vote in the second Greek election in a month has been counted and the leaderboard looks like this. So it would appear that New Democracy will win approximately 130 seats of the 300 available and therefore technically be able to form a ruling coalition with any of the


The despair of Ross Gittins

Last week Ross Gittins suggested we all throw in the towel vis-a-vis understanding the economy and today he follows through in a convulsion of public despair: The release of two downbeat indicators of business and consumer confidence last week serves only to deepen the puzzle over the gap between how we feel and what the objective


Links June 18: All eyes on Greece

  Global Macro: There is only so much central banks can do (Financial Times) Welcome to the next financial crisis (marketplace.org) Regulators Weigh Easing of Global Bank Rules (Wall Street Journal) “A Global Perfect Storm” by Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Hedge fund closures hit 2-year high in 1st quarter (Reuters) Russia’s Northern Sea Route cuts


Finance and the Mafia State

The argument advanced by the historian Philip Bobbitt that a transition is occurring in world politics from the nation state to the market state has long appealed as a snapshot of what is occurring in world politics. It is, as with any thesis about a large subject, far too simple to reflect accurately all that is


Trading Week

So where have the markets gone this week? Past the daily noise and headlines, this weekly chart heavy post will examine the major markets (debt, commodities, currencies then shares) with the Australian investor in mind. This will be an important Trading Week to read for two reasons. First, this weekend we will see the Greeks


Weekend Links – Saturday June 16th

Here is some things Reynard found interesting today. Global Macro: Cullen Roche on Risk Managed Optimism – Prag Cap. What he said! Global Perfect Storm. Nouriel Roubini in Project Syndicate But Central Banks stand ready to try to help out on Monday – Reuters. After that we can get back to worrying and wondering about


ASX Shares Daily – 15th June

By Chris Becker Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. The markets are as topsy turvy as a topsy turvy thing today, oscillating between gains and losses, although the ASX200 has done better than most, up 15 points or nearly 0.4% to 4057 points. For context its been


Innovation schminnovation

From the AFR: The innovation community is aghast that the new research and development (R&D) tax credit is being considered for cuts even before the end of its first year of operation on June 30. The credit is one of the options that could go in order to fund a company tax cut, being considered


Roy Morgan Business Confidence sags in May

Not that we especially needed reminding but according to Roy Morgan, business confidence fell significantly in May: Business Confidence in Australia dropped 6.4pts in May 2012 to 105.8, down from 112.2 in April and is now at the lowest level since August 2011. These are the latest findings from the Roy Morgan Research Business Confidence


Where are the jobs?

Yesterday the ABS released its quarterly detailed Labour Force report which gives us chance to peer into the sectoral trends of employment. A couple of standout results included: Mining adding 25.5k jobs in the quarter and 58k over the year. Now at 275k total. Education and training was up 30k in the quarter but only


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism. Today’s links: Happiness and wealth: Money can’t buy me love | The Economist Mr Lei declares himself pleased with the past decade’s reduction in rural taxation; not too bothered by moderately rising prices of goods; and somewhat concerned that, although his basic health care is adequate, his coverage would not suffice if


Should Glenn Stevens shut up?

The editor of Business Spectator, James Kirby, has penned a piece today arguing that the Governor of the RBA, Glenn Stevens, needs to shut up. It’s worth analysing the piece to see whether its argument makes sense: The Brisbane summit was Stevens’ second speech in a week – he spoke in Adelaide on June 8.