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Trading Day

The risk on rally continued on Asian markets today, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index up 0.8% or 35 points to 4187 points. On the daily charts, the local bourse has hit local resistance at 4200 points, and could retrace to its rising support line whilst still supporting a short or medium term rally thesis, where

Latest posts

75

Bottom picking is for monkeys

Fairfax’s Chris Vedelago has published a marvellous piece of journalism at Domain today: Counting eggs before they hatch It’s amazing how little it takes to get some people in propertyland very excited. Not long after RP Data-Rismark released its November property price data the industry was buzzing with “news” that the much-anticipated recovery for the residential real

17

ANZ pays a high price as well

It appears that the Australian banking system continues to pay the price for the European crisis and its reliance on foreign funding. As I mentioned last week CBA paid a high price to issue covered bonds in the European market due to the costs of swapping Euros back to AUD. It would appear that this

35

Bearing the bull on gold

Coming out of the new year, alongside other risk assets, gold has seemingly reversed its recent falls, climbing above $1620 as risk managers and robotic algo’s bid up risk on sentiment expectations from consensus building and reaction to continued positive dataflow from the US economy as 2012 gets underway. As always, the sentiment behind gold’s rise

0

China Links

China News Headlines | Hong Kong’s premier newspaper online | SCMP.com – Cadre who accused protesting villagers of colluding with foreign media has not been sidelined, as thought Goal of Iran sanctions is regime collapse, U.S. official says – The Washington Post – this will not make china want to cooperate Perfect World Responds to

12

Job vacancies resume downward trend

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released job vacancies data for the November quarter, which fully reversed the increase of the previous quarter:   Total job vacancies in November 2011 were 182,200, a decrease of 0.8% from August 2011. The number of job vacancies in the private sector was 164,900 in November 2011, a

10

Risk diverges from Macro

Good news for a change in risk markets over the past 24 hours. The Shanghai Composite index is up well north of 5% in the past two days, European bourses were up 2 and 3% the US markets are a more circumspect half to one percent, the Australian Dollar is back above 1.03 and things

0

Market Morning

Risk was back last night, as overseas markets reversed their sideways funk and bids were finally made to push undollar assets above their resistance levels. In Europe, good data from France and Germany gave the impetus for the biggest rises, whilst in the USA, the beginning of the US corporate earnings season, with a loss-making

24

Italy turns Japanese

More good data out of Germany overnight with German exports rising 2.5% in November after posting their biggest fall in half a year the previous month. The forecast was for 0.7% growth so the number of a large outperformance. In addition the trade surplus widened to €15.1bn, showing that imbalances within Europe remain. There was some

11

Chart of the Day: Volatility is normal

Today’s chart comes from Trend Trader, who originally posted the chart on Twitter before it was swept up by the blogosphere and has been posted by Doug Short and Stocktwits. I’ll leave the explanation of this very detailed chart to Trends Trader: The DJIA chart below is the result of compiling a complete historical diary

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January 11 Links: Risk on

Markets: Dollar: USD falls, AUD above 1.03, EUR stable Treasuries, $US Undollar: US/Euro stocks jump, gold breaks out above $1630USD euro, gold, metals, ore, grains, Aussie, energy,CRB Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year

24

Trading Day

Asian markets rallied today, as Chinese trade data for December lifted expectations, and local private equity deals and takeovers helped spur the action on the S&P/ASX 200 Index, up over 1% or 46 points to 4152 points. On the daily charts, the local bourse is climbing up above its rising support line, indicating a short

5

China trade slows but still strong

Another brace of data today, this time from China, as December trade data was released showing export growth slowing and the trade surplus rising, on falling imports. From the AFR: China’s export growth has fallen to its slowest pace since 2009, with weak demand from the ongoing European debt crisis likely to prompt Beijing to

0

China Links

Got money offshore? IRS starts new amnesty program – TaxWatch – MarketWatch – If you’ve got money stashed in overseas accounts that you’ve failed to report to the Internal Revenue Service, the tax agency wants to give you another chance to come forward. The IRS said Monday that it’s launching a third voluntary disclosure program

17

Ore’s not well with iron ore

On the heel’s of the release of the RBA’s paper on the mining boom, and the excellent analysis by The Unconventional Economist, comes a Dow Jones Newswire piece, reposted at The Oz: Global demand growth for iron ore is set to slow in 2012, bringing down average iron ore prices from last year’s record high.

3

Market Morning

Overseas markets started the week mixed again, as the Atlantic split continues. In Europe, tensions were on Hungary and Italian debt, whilst the Germans paid their government to park their short term money (6 month bills were sold with negative yield). In the USA, very good consumer credit numbers gave the local bourses a bid

3

Commodities press Oz equities

Usually when I think of the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) Index I’m looking at it as part of my toolkit for the Australian Dollar outlook. But I was talking to a few mates over in Perth yesterday and thoughts turned to the relationship between the CRB and the S&P ASX 200. We all have our

24

PIMCO says QE3 won’t work

PIMCO, the world’s largest bond fund, has made much ado about the US Fed’s Quantitative Easing (QE) programs in the past, but in this Bloomberg interview with CEO and co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian, their stance seems to have changed to that of observers who realise, past the risk-on rallies that they embibe, QE actually doesn’t do

31

AFG says mortgage lending trending up

The latest AFG mortgage index report was released yesterday. As MacroBusiness readers may remember I use the AFG lending volumes as a leading indicator of the direction of the home lending market as they appear to be a relatively good leading indicator for the official ABS data in the 5609 and 5671 datasets. For those who

2

Chart of the Day: Italian ECB funding

Today’s chart from Scott Barber, updates the ECB funding to Italian banks which topped 200 billion Euro in December, matched against the Italian 10 year bond spread over Germany (which just sold negative yield 6 month bills last night): And here are the Italian bank exposures to Italian bonds (in Italian, mesi=month, anni=year), and explains

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January 10 Links: Atlantic risk split again

Markets: Dollar flat: USD slipped, T-bonds firmTreasuries, $US Mixed Undollar: US stocks up, Euro stocks down, AUD below 1.02, gold slips again euro, gold, metals, ore, grains, Aussie, energy,CRB Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year

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Trading Day

Most Asian markets fell today on poor leads from their Atlantic cousins, as markets await another Sarkozy/Merkel conference tonight. The S&P/ASX 200 Index had a mixed day, falling on the open, blipping up on the retail trade data release, before finishing flat, down 3 points to 4105 points. On the daily charts, the local bourse

39

Retail bonds are dangerous – for share funds

An article in The Australian today highlights the rationale behind the current paradigm that “shares are best”, “debt is bad”. The global fixed interest head of Colonial First State (CFS), Warren Bird, sinks the notion that Australians should have access to a deep, mature and liquid corporate bond market: We should stop trying to artificially

6

CBA pays high price to rush for cover

As a follow up to my post on the Commonwealth Bank’s (CBA) entrance into the European covered bond market, please find below some additional commentary from Phil Bayley, Principal of ADCM Services, who is a capital markets consultant. It’s not a good headline number is it? But it is not as bad as it seems. CBA issued

2

China Links

Bloopers in Space – IEEE Spectrum – A horrendous error appears to have been made by a well-respected British spaceflight society, which reportedly is about to publish an article claiming that the X-37B, the secret Pentagon space plane, is shadowing the recently launched Chinese prototype space station, Tiangong-1, to spy on it in flight. But

0

Mining construction up, housing falls

The AIG released their December Performance of Construction Index (PCI) to complete the avalanche of local data this morning. Overall, the index lifted 1.4 points to 41 indicating improvement, but in aggregate this is still a contraction across the entire sector (a reading below 50 is contraction). Here are the key findings: The easing in

4

Retail spending flat in November (updated)

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the November 2011 Retail Trade this morning showing retail turnover was unchanged seasonally adjusted, following a rise of 0.2% the previous month. On a monthly basis, the trend estimate rose 0.3% following a rise of 0.3% in October and September, however seasonally adjusted, turnover was unchanged following the

31

HIA says house sales up, unit sales down

The Housing Industry Associations (HIA) released its November 2011 New Home Sales report today, a survey of Australia’s 100 largest builders. According to the HIA: Total seasonally adjusted sales increased by 6.8% October figures were revised down to 2.8% gain Detached house sales increased by 9.8%, mainly through NSW and Victoria Multi-unit sales dropped by