Trading Day – 5th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is steady at 4740 points with some intra-day buying support. Telstra is adding weight to the market, rallying up 1.4%. Retail sales figures surprised the unsurprisable economists, which has weighed slightly on retail stocks. The index (XJO) is dicing with its 200 day moving average (a closely watched indicator) and is still

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Retail sales unsurprisingly poor

Those poor bullhawks.  That strange creature – half housing bull, half rate hawk – must be having a few doubts. Personal crises even. Retail sales for March are in and look, well, crapola. First from the ABS itself: I will add that on a monthly basis there were a few eye-opening falls for different segments. Department stores


Noosa continues to “Keen it”

How do you lose $160,000 over 15 years? Buy a Noosa apartment. Savagely discounted prices fetched by receivers for apartments previously owned by former Sunshine Coast tourism boss Phillip Harding has sent shock waves through Noosa with some estimating the state of the market is now as bad as the Gold Coast. Over the past


NAB looks solid

The big 4 banks reporting season rolls on, as NAB released its 2011 Interim Results today. Below is a brief summary of the key figures along with select graphs taken from the NAB presentation. Profit Compared to the March 2011 HY results, NPAT was up 16% to $2.43 billion and cash earnings increased 22%, with


US triple-dipping

Last week’s GDP figures in the US confirmed the momentum in the US economy’s recovery is slowing as the impetus from stimulus packages and government largesse fades and the true pulse of the economy becomes evident. This trend appears set to continue if last night’s report on the non-manufacturing sector from the Institute of Supply


The BlueScope blues

Like ships passing through the night, the discussion on emission-intensive trade-exposed (EITE) industries seems to involve two separate conversations. One where those industries most affected (eg steel, aluminium, cement) talk about earnings impacts and job losses. And the other involving policy makers, equity analysts and NGOs questioning whether the impact would be quite so bad.


Gold: This Time is Different

Asset markets are effectively all the same: housing, shares, commodities, FX, precious metals, pork bellies and interest rates. They are all markets for speculators to trade, investors to get a return of and on their money and sheep to think they can buy and hold (or negative gear) forever. As I’ve said before, gold in


Links May 5: Sloooooooowing

Down: Gold, energy, grains, $US  Falling: Aussie  Analysis Bloomberg European bonds improving: Greece, Portugal,  Spain, Italy, Belgium Portugal accepts bailout Reuters 12 Billion Euro for banks CNN Debt crisis sill lingers TheOz Service industry activity in US expand more slowly Bloomberg US Treasury suggests nother $2 Trillion in Debt required Reuters Oil down on stockpiles Reuters Get ready for a global showdown


The century of old age

As mentioned previously, the 21st century will be the century of old age, where declining birth rates meet longer life expectancies. This ageing of the population will affect many areas of the international economy, from consumption and growth to asset valuations. The impacts from ageing will likely be most acute in Western Nations, although some developing countries, most


April car sales down 4.5%

Adam Carr won’t be happy. He’s relied on growing car sales in part to rationalise his intense campaign for rate hikes. Westpac has just released a note on the April sales figures from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries and it’s into reverse I’m afraid: Westpac Economic update Australia: new vehicle sales down 4.5% in


It begins

It was only a matter of time. UBS let the warning out to investors this morning. Arrears rose alarmingly. Early warning sign for consumers? ANZ’s arrears levels have risen sharply. Since September its >30 days arrears have risen 41% to $5.8b, while >90 days are up 26% to $2b. We believe higher arrears are heavily


Australian dollar top is in

On Monday I posted a technical piece saying the the Australian Dollar had hit resistance and so far it appears that the 1.1014 level has proved to be the ceiling that I thought it was going to be. It was tested on two distinctly seperate occasions on Monday Sydney time and then again in New York


Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down almost 1% to 4755 points from a 4971 point high on the 11th April, a 4.3% total loss in the current dip. Momentum and other technical indicators continue to be very negative. The small short-lived Easter rally looks like being the “dead cat bounce” as part of an overall correction


Iron fist

The future of Australia’s coal exports look pretty assured. The International Energy Agency is forecasting that the growth between now and 2035 in China’s energy production will equal America’s, Europe’s and Japan’s current energy usage . Despite China’s falling carbon intensity, much of the expansion this will still come from coal. As I noted in


Westpac “boring”

WBC released its 2011 Interim Results today. Below is a brief summary of the key figures along with select graphs taken from the broker presentation. Profit Reported Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) was up 14% to $3.961 billion with growth in cash earnings of 8% with all divisions (incl. NZ) experiencing growth. Similarly to ANZ,


An awfully bland miracle

The RBA made reference to the likelihood of a negative print when Q1 GDP is released on the first of June so I thought I would visualise what a negative number. Without positive revisions to previous quarters this would take the annual rate below 2%: While we were the only developed nation to avoid a


Good and evil in interest rates

According to Peter Martin: The Reserve Bank believes inflation has bottomed and it will soon have to lift interest rates, possibly even next month. The bank’s change of heart emerged during a three-hour board meeting yesterday that resolved to leave the cash rate steady at 4.75per cent but to be prepared to lift it without


May 4 links: Rate rage

Down: metals,  energy, Aussie Flat: $US, grains Osama victim of Arab revolt. Asia Times Gross backs emerging markets on inflation concern for US. MarketBeat Seems backwards to me… Who pays for Greece? Business Insider China is big. MarketWatch US ISM strong. Calculated Risk But growth is not good. Tim Duy Adani buys coal port. FT RBA will lift. Peter Martin,


Strength not weakness is hitting housing

The Unconventional Economist posted on the bearish musings of Louis Christopher overnight. Mr Christopher’s thoughts looks fine and good, but made little sense to me. Here is the quote: I still do not believe this is going to be the big one- that being the big 40% house price crash. However for many vendors, it’s


What’s that hissing sound?

In today’s SQM Research weekly newsletter, SQM’s Managing Director, Louis Christopher, provides a sobering assessment of the state of Australia’s housing market. Below are the key extracts, together with some charts and data added for additional context. “The housing market’s downturn is now happening at pace and there is no imminent recovery in sight. These


Australian dollar to retrace on rates

This is how I reckon the currency guys might take the RBA’s no move announcement. It may be different to my fellow bloggers or the economists but then again currencies are traded by different people. The release of the RBA’s Board Meeting Communique had something in it for every one: A nod to the mining


RBA holds, options open

The RBA has pretty much delivered market expectations with a hold and more hawkish statement. However, this is not as hawkish as I might have expected, with a strong nod toward both tradable goods sectors and housing. Options look open for next month. The debate will rage! Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision


Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down over 1%, or 51 points at 4773 at 1pm AEST, below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are very negative as this broad selloff continues to hit all sectors. Three consecutive closes below the 15 day moving average are indicative of a correction pattern, but medium term


ANZ half-year update

ANZ released its first-half update today.  Below is a brief summary of some of the key figures along with graphs taken from the presentation. Profit Up 23% compared to 1HY10 results, however revenue is down whilst expenses are up.  It seems a 40% reduction in provisions for the same period has contributed the lions share


Bull and bear

One of the more entertaining aspects of market commentary is how superficially plausible diametrically opposite views often can be. Being a bear by temperament, I am inclined to think the market is looking very vulnerable, especially industrials. The impact of the high $A has to have some negative effect on the the non-mining industry base,


Is al-Qaeda still a risk?

Following is an excellent assessment of the current and future path for al-Qaeda from Jamestown, a world-leading international relations website. How Important is Bin Laden Anyway? Bin Laden is not a religious scholar; he is not a military planner; he is not even a politician. He will, however, always be the man who brought down


The silver highway to regulatory risk

Silver is not probably one of the metals you watch. While we hear about the price of gold all the time Silver is in many ways the poor cousin. But if there was ever going to be a useable metallic standard it would probably be silver rather than gold. This fact has been picked up


The bubble formula

What is it that determines house prices? Supply & demand, availability of credit, government subsidies, taxes, or a level of value in the buyers head?  I think it’s time we try to put a little discipline into the debate. Clearly many things go into determining house prices but with a little thought we can perhaps understand


Steering Godzilla’s seesaw with a mallet

Something we discuss quite a bit on MacroBusiness is the balancing act that the RBA is attempting in adjusting the economy away from credit driven housing and into resource sector led business investment. We also have many off-line conversations about this topic, mainly focusing on what  could be going wrong and what our own personalities and ideologies lead us to believe is actually


May 3 Links: Osama, Silver and the RBA

Silver just went splat, rumours applenty Naked Cap Down: Gold, energy, grains, $US , Aussie US dollar at 3 year low CNBC Greek bonds smell worse again Bloomberg Limited Contagion: Portugal,  Spain, Italy, Belgium Portugal deal coming soon SMH Overnight market analysis Bloomberg US celebrates Bin Laden’s demise BBC Waiting for the back lash Reuters The Aussie angle SMH US, China