Market Morning

So Apple (AAPL) decided to give back some of its nearly $US100 billion cash hoard in the form of a (paltry) dividend and a share buyback – at 1.8% yield, its not that exciting. Is APPL running out of ideas or just being prudent with its capital management? Lets check out what happened in detail before

Latest posts


Housing swallows economy

By Leith van Onselen RPData, provided and interesting tidbit of information in its 2012 Capital Markets Report (available for download here), where it noted [my emphasis]: The Australian housing sector is the country’s largest and, arguably, most important asset class. The total value of homes across the country as at December 2011 was $4.54 trillion.


Consumers using credit cards as crutch

On the back of the recent RBA research into credit/debit card and ATM cash usage, comes this “Consumer Credit Expectations Survey” from Dun and Bradstreet: Families and low income earners are increasingly struggling to meet their financial obligations, relying more on credit to pay the bills in the coming months. ….41 per cent of Australian


RBA gambles on China with no Plan B

Recently, I took the liberty of writing a few articles to provide some sectoral macroeconomic analysis of the Australian economy. I did this because I thought it was important to push back on what I perceived as a growing divide between what Australians are being told about the economy and what is actually transpiring. Although


Is mining a job destroyer?

Find below a new analysis of the effect of the mining boom on jobs in Queensland by The Australia Institute. This is an interesting take on the net effect of the mining boom on the labour market. It is brief and readable and asserts, using the example of modeling around the QLD “China First” mine,


Population and disinflation

In my 2012 forecast for China’s economy, I pointed out that while the consensus seems to suggest that the future for China will be inflationary because of ageing population and shrinking labour force (see also BarCap’s view on this issue, in which they think China will have a structurally high inflation in the years to


March 20th Links: How’s them apples?

Markets: Up: Stocks , gold , energies, euro, Aussie, CRB Down: USD , Treasuries Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany


Trading Day – 19th March

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published each Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Regular


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: Twitter / @niubi: renowned leftist dog/jingo … – renowned leftist dog/jingoist clown 司马南 sima nan has not sent a weibo in nearly 3 days. http://bit.ly/AvGUa7 article 73′d? 胡锡进的微博 新浪微博-随时随地分享身边的新鲜事儿 – Twitter / @niubi: or as wsj chinese editor @ … – or as wsj chinese editor @LiYuan6 asked on weibo @ hu


Dangerous exponentials

 “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist”. Kenneth Boulding By Leith van Onselen Earlier today, The Prince published a thought provoking article questioning the economy’s addiction to population growth. It’s an issue that I have been pondering since reading the below Strategy


China housing bubble crackles

Following Phat Dragon this morning comes this news from FT: Home prices in nearly two-thirds of China’s major cities fell in February from the previous month, as measures taken to tame the property market continue to have an impact. Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Sunday that 45 out of 70 large and


Understanding the Australian economy

As you may have noticed I’ve taken an eye off Europe for a short while in order to provide some macro analysis on what is happening in the Australian economy. At present there is a growing gap in the economic conversation in Australia between what is actually happening and the rhetoric…. This post is a


Costs decline for ANZ and NZ banks

According to Banking Day, it seems the cost of borrowing for ANZ is improving in the short term (emphasis added), compared to its competitors: On Friday, ANZ completed the sale to domestic investors of A$2 billion in fixed-rate and floating-rate bonds at spreads substantially lower than that paid by Commonwealth Bank when it opened the


Data for the Week

A relatively quiet week for for local data, with second tier data and speeches from RBA Governor’s and officials whilst the international flow will centre around a new spread of flash PMI data. From the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS): Wednesday: International Merchandise Imports, Australia, February 2012 From the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Monday:


Market Morning

Well that was a fun (and wet) weekend, and now its on again. Lets check out what happened in detail before the open of the local markets – remember to read Trading Week to always put this daily noise in context, which will be updated tomorrow, including my trading ideas for the week coming. Most risk markets


It’s hip to be bear

By Leith van Onselen For me, one of the most interesting aspects arising from following the Australian housing market over the past couple of years has been the widespread change in media and public sentiment towards the state of the market. Since writing my first ever post warning of a housing bubble in May 2010


Is the Australia dollar’s bounce sustainable?

It is undeniable that the Australian dollar has had a great bounce off the support we highlighted last week. While I thought the Australian dollar might have fallen into the 1.0378/1.0407 zone, it got close enough that over the past few days people are becoming bullish once again. Lets first look at last weeks chart and then


Are we hooked on population growth?

I was recently invited to attend the launch of a new documentary called “Growthbusters” in Brisbane on Friday night but was unable to attend due to work commitments. Thankfully, the sponsor, The Stable Population Party, gave me access to an online screening. Here is a preview of the 1hr 30min film: This is a very


China records capital inflow in February 2012

The People’s Bank of China recently published the detailed tables to their latest monetary statistics for February 2012. In particular, I want to look at the change in position for forex purchase, a gauge in money flow.  For February, the overall position for FX purchase remained stable, increasing slightly by about RMB25 billion.  Taken into account


March 19 Links: Bond…rising bond

Global Macro A healthy rise in Global yields Gavyn Davies The Bond anomaly has gone away BusinessInsider Shock and oil voxeu .. Europe to get another kickin’ ? Oil’s spare capacity is almost gone Gregor.US Apple as hegemonic swarm Ultimi Barbarorum Why all of the sudden fuss about the Squid? Washington Post … They’ve been doing it for


Trading Week

So where have the markets gone this week? Past the daily noise and headlines, this weekly post will examine the major markets (debt, commodities and currencies) before analysing the Australian stock market. First the wrap-up from Friday’s night session on European and American markets: Most risk markets in Europe rose, with UK FTSE up 0.4%


Taking on the big four banks

Australia is a country that gravitates toward industrial and business oligopolies. Think of supermarkets, airlines, beverages, paper and packaging, transport and, of course, the major banks. Even large multi dealership car yards seem to dominate over single brand standalone car dealerships. IGA and the corner store are doing their best to hold back the tide


Weekend Links

Global Macro More on Brazilian rate cuts Beyondbrics World energy consumption since 1820 Oil Drum great charts Iceland to repay IMF early Reuters sticking middle finger to bankers does that… The end of the global gold bull on the horizon Marketwatch United States Myth of cash on sidelines Colin Twiggs interesting chart CPI rises 0.4% in


Trading Day – 16th March

I’m beginning to repeat myself, but the local market, the S&P/ASX200 index has rejected the 4300 point level again, finishing flat at 4277 points: In fact I don’t even need to upload a different chart – but I will tomorrow when I cover the ASX200 and other global markets in my weekly “Trading Week“. On


Real Household wealth at 2006 levels

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday released the March quarter 2012 Bulletin, which contains a paper entitled The Distribution of Household Wealth in Australia: Evidence from the 2010 HILDA Survey. According to the abstract: This article uses the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to analyse the


Victorian budget takes a hit

By Leith van Onselen Recent macroeconomic data coming out of Victoria has been poor. Since house prices peaked in the June quarter of 2010, Victorian economic growth, as measured by state final demand, has severely underperformed the national average, growing by only 1.8% in real terms since June 2010 – less than population growth: It’s


Market Morning

The good data continues to roll out of the US, with jobless benefits claims down, manufacturing expanding and most importantly, the new iPad coming out today sending AAPL to over $600: By the way, that’s a semi-log scale chart, not linear! Lets check out what happened in detail before the open of the local markets –