China links

Courtesy of Sinocism. An App Keeps Spies Away from Your iPhone – Technology Review China boats return to disputed area: claim | The Australian Chinese fishing boats have returned to a lagoon in a disputed South China Sea shoal despite an agreement to clear the area of all vessels, Philippines officials say. Bo family in

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New home sales twitch

From the HIA: New home sales crept up by 0.7 per cent in May 2012, suggesting interest rate cuts are yet to have a widespread impact, said the Housing Industry Association, the voice of Australia’s residential building industry. …In May 2012 the number of seasonally adjusted new detached house sales increased by 3.9 per cent in Victoria. Detached


Rate cut probabilities

So, the market is daily repricing the probability of the July rate out of existence: We’re down to a one in four shot. This will be old news to regular readers. More interesting are the probabilities attached to future RBA meets: That’s a 94% chance of 25bps in August and again in September and high


MacroBusiness Morning

US data continues to be the key thing between a full-blown risk retreat in the run up to the EU Summit tonight and tomorrow. Overnight we saw the first rise in durable goods for 3 months posting +1.1% in May with machinery and defence orders driving the overall increase. Pending home sales also rose, up 5.9%


Low doc pain

From Banking Day: Borrowers with low-doc loans, who tend to be self-employed, may be experiencing a greater than the usual level of difficulty paying their loans. Fitch Ratings said that delinquencies in the low-doc segment tend to be between two times and two and a half times those of full-doc loans. In the year to


Australia’s commodity volume bonanza

The Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (BREE) is out with its latest quarterly assessment of commodity markets. I like BREE. They tend to forecast more conservatively than one might expect. The major story emanating from the latest update is the fruits of the long predicted surge in volumes in Australia’s major commodity exports, which


Chinese business to boost $US?

Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst. Interesting research from Standard Chartered shows that corporate China is short the US dollar. That may seem surprising, but it makes sense if the Chinese yuan is expected to go up while the US dollar is expected to go down, which has been the case for the best part of the last


Keynes’ MegaBank

Following Deep T.‘s regular probing analysis on the Australian banking system, the crew here at MacroBusiness often refer to the big four banks MegaBank.  Yet we are not the first. I came across an enlightening passage from Keynes’s Treatise on Money that came very close to using the term MegaBank. When introducing the concept of


June 28 links: Media schmozzle

Global Macro: Glenstrata the tombstone. Alphaville United States: US LNG exports up for grabs. Reuters Pending home sales beat. Calculated Risk Durable goods too. Zero Hedge Europe: France to lift minimum wage to  boost consumption. WSJ Italy embraces easier layoffs. WSJ Merkel update. FT Asia Migrant workers and locals clash in China town BBC Romney


ASX Shares Daily – 27th June

By Chris Becker Another volatile day on Asian markets, but this time in the green, with the ASX200 closing up 0.7% to 4043 points, having a peek just above the short term support of recent weeks, as seen in the chart below (also marked are my medium term system short/tight signals, plus the KC Signal from 1st


Mission accomplished for ANZ

A couple of weeks ago ANZ claimed victory in its quest to find independence from the RBA in its intereat rate settings: ANZ wanted to stop the ‘dog and pony show’ that occurs after the Reserve Bank changes rates and we’ve done that by setting a particular date on which we will inform our customers


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism. FT Alphaville » China’s remarkable short USD position At best, the chart shows that China’s dollar position has become balanced over the last half year. That the dollars China takes in through exports cover the country’s dollar import costs, but that’s all. There are no surplus dollars leftover for reinvestment.This, by the


Perpetual no longer

The era of the financialisation of Western economies has come to a grinding halt, replaced by an era of de-leveraging, dis-leveraging or whatever term one wants to coin. The shrinking of the finance sector is partly ameliorated in Australia because of the $1.3 trillion super pool and inflow of funds from the levy, but there is nevertheless a new era


McKibbin looks beyond the boom

At the AFR today, Professor Warwick McKibbin offers us a ball tearing narrative for our times. It’s worth taking some time to dissect this piece as it is rare that we get something beyond the usual drivel. McKibbin begins: Many policymakers fail to realise that a long-term transformation of the global economy is under way


MacroBusiness Morning

The fact that the Case Shiller housing index printed better than expected (+0.67) seems to have predominated in trade in the US overnight with equity markets finishing in the black. The conundrum in this is that the Richmond Fed index was weak at -3 for its first fall in 6  months while at the same


China’s, ahem, “stabilising trade”

Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst. While country A’s import from country B should be equal to the export from country B to country A, statistics from different countries do not always match up.  That is understandable as there are differences in how things are counted. In the China case, the difference itself is not what interests me


Peak oil no more?

Courtesy of Sober Look. Those who keep professing that “peak oil” is just around the corner or has already been reached should take a look at this Harvard paper (ht John A). The author (Leonardo Maugeri) analyzed oil exploration and development projects field by field globally to determine how oil production is expected to grow.


The European summit is a write off

Spain took a beating overnight after Moody’s downgraded the long term debt and deposit ratings of 28 Spanish banks on the back of the sovereign downgrade earlier in the month. Yields on short term debt spiked at auction: Spain’s short-term borrowing costs nearly tripled at auction on Tuesday, underlining the country’s precarious finances as it struggles against


Links June 27: The deep breath

Global Macro: Oil surplus looms. Alphaville United States: April US house prices up. Calculated Risk And the NAR says boom is back. Calculated Risk Are worldwide realty folk descended from one single spruiker ape? Profits hit all time high, wages all time low. BI Chemical Index howling triple dip. Zero Hedge Europe: Greece is finished. Naked Capitalism


ASX Shares Daily – 26th June

By Chris Becker On reaction to overnight markets,  the ASX200 slumped again on the open almost falling below 4000 points by 2pm before the guys who manage your super funds, high on some expensive beers and cocktails came back to work and bid the market up for the rest of the afternoon. It still closed down 0.3%


Are bonds or equities right about the future?

The stress in the global capital markets has some strange consequences. In an environment in which most developed economies have, in effect, have little or no cost of capital, many of the usual inter-relationships do not behave normally. The centre  may not hold, as it were. Dividend yields are above bond yields in all major developed economy markets. Macquarie is pointing out that


Ten trends in a yuan float

ANZ has produced an interesting note on the capital market and currency shifts we are likely to see in the build up to a full float of the Chinese yuan. To put it mildly, this is a big deal. The beginning of the end of US hegemony, if we’re not already past that point… Greater


China’s leading indicators rise

The Conference Board Leading Indicators for China were out today and the news is a rising trend. There is also this from the good news media: China’s trade ministry sought to dispel worries about slowing economic growth on Tuesday by saying exports are likely to pick up in coming months and the country can meet its


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism. 房地产信托兑付洪峰:今年1758亿是去年4倍|房地产信托|兑付高峰|华澳实德_21世纪网 lots of real estate products coming due this year. 4x 2011 amount. 175.8B RMB worth. 不良贷款来了_专题频道_财新网 Caixin cover story on bad loans now online CapitalVue News: Shanxi Coal Boss Detained By Discipline Commission related to liu zhijun case Amazon.com: China’s Environmental Challenges (China Today) (9780745660912): Judith Shapiro: Books In this trailblazing