Weekend reading: US bumps along the bottom

US double dip still looms. Calculated Risk, Zero Hedge, EconompicBut ECRI coming off the bottom. Pragmatic CapitalistGolden Cross another Hindenberg Omen. BespokeGold flattens equities. The EconomistPrint or be damned. Zero Hedge I, IICommodity inflation shock coming? BespokeMapping the US view of Europe. Are we so different? kottkeNAB’s drama queens. The AgeSlash spending and jack up

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There are a couple of breathless reports today, one from Eric Johnston and another from David Uren, on yesterday’s announcement that the RBA now has financial stability as an official part of its mandate. Both are at pains to report that not only has the remit been expanded it’s been limited too. Uren quotes from


Supporting the sleepless.

In support of David Llewellyn-Smiths’ very late night ( and his new blog ), I implore you all to read his latest post. Just try not to get too worried about the fact that the RBA maybe taking cocunut shells as collatorel on repos. For more information on ‘repos’ and other commercial bank / reserve


August credit = rate rise

Well, the RBA’s DO2 is out again and there are some noteworthy things happening. Seasonally adjusted owner occupier mortgages grew at 6.6% annualised and investors at 9.2%. Combined growth was 7.4% Credit cards are still on the nose, down 2.2% and despite all the nice advertisements, business lending fell 6.4%. Whilst housing credit hasn’t fallen


Blog Data

It is the end of September; time to share some blog stats. Once again proving people will read any old rubbish if it is free, you can see from the graph that readership continues to grow.In September we manage 22,400 page impressions from 15,350 visitors. Most of our readership is from Australia, but it is


Links Oct 1: European loathing

Pick of the day: Why the European bailout is doomed. Satyajit DasBHP wants monthly ore contracts. BloombergWhy they will probably get them. Metal MinerTough Chinese rebalancing. Michael Pettis parotted by Karen MaleyOn US trade war rhetoric. Naked CapitalsismDow still stuck in bear market dynamics. Econompic Why the Aussie is on a moonshot. Falkenblog


Oz Real Estate .. Still more bad news.

As we have warned many times before most of the Oz property market is now headed backwards. Home prices fell in August amid expectations price growth for the year will grind to a halt if the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates. The median national home prices dropped 0.2 per cent in August, seasonally adjusted, following


The European blame game.

Overnight the world markets once again became worried about European debt. We can’t tell why it has suddenly sprung up again now, it isn’t like the problem ever went away. Most of the deficit nations are strangling themselves to death with Austerity. We noticed an article a couple of days ago on bloomberg about the


Links Sep 30: yuan pressure

China currency legislation passes US House. BloombergBeggar-thy-neighbour. Martin Wolf, Gavyn DaviesFalling $US can save US economy and Obama. Simon JohnsonTrouble for the US ISM? Truck tonnage collapses. Calculated RiskIMF beat-ups. David Uren, Tim ColebatchActual IMF reports. Australia and Liquidity risk.China will boom on. Michael StutchburySingapore clears 90% of iron ore swaps. BloombergCopper rips again. ReutersSlow


Oz Real estate.. More on the dead canary

This morning we talked about the dying Gold Coast real estate market. We note that the ABC has an article posted today with some more details. A group of property developers face a nervous wait to see how many people will pull out of off-the-plan purchases of more than 900 new apartments on the Gold


Fitch prepares the rubber stamp (Updated)

The market is apparently abuzz with heavens knows what pertaining to the banks and the Fitch Ratings announcement that they are …probing the potential impact of a spike in mortgage defaults or drop in house prices on the portfolio of Australian residential mortgage-backed securities and banks it rates. Over the last few months, Fitch has



We have received a couple of e-mails this week from readers asking for advice on how they could benefit from the AUD carry trade. Although we would like to provide this advice, we believe it is in fact illegal to do so. However this does not stop us talking about it. We note just now


Oz Real Estate.. Polly has snuffed it

Anyone who has studied the Australian Real estate market for any length of time will quickly come to the realisation that the Gold Coast in Queensland is the canary in the coal mine. Back in 2008 the gold coast suffered a major downturn that lead to many finance and construction companies collapsing. The problems became


Links Sep 29: you versus the corporation

Pick of the day. Forget left versus right. It’s you versus corporations. Barry Ritholz Whilst this is undoubtedly worse in America, before you guffaw, think big bank bailout, ETS, RSPT, policy convergence and oligopolies in every sector…Markets won’t like a smaller QE2. CalculatedRisk and Karen MaleyThough perhaps it’ll be BIGQE2 if this rank US data


Goldman warns of an Australian recession

This blog has been meaning to post on the relatively recent Goldman Sachs report on Australian housing by economists Tim Toohey, David Colosimo and Andrew Boak. It is a very long report and there is little point in going through it blow-by-blow. But, contrary to the way it has been reported, the research is frighteningly


Foreign bond deluge

This blogger tracks Australian bank’s foreign liabilities using the ABS’s National Accounts: Financial Accounts. It aggregates the bonds our banks sell to oversees investors. June quarter figures were just released and show that our banks now owe $323.9 billion on bonds with maturities above one year. And another $83.3 billion in bonds with maturities under


Links Sep 28: Pascoe smackdown

Must read: Pettis does Pascoe. China Financial MarketsWhy the Plaza Accord was not responsible for Japan’s bubble. Models and AgentsWhen will the USS QE2 sail? Calculated RiskIreland and Portugal spreads won’t stop. FTAlphaville Greece looking a bit better. BloombergHope springs eternal. The Dow is going to 38,820 (LOL). BloombergChina trade war. Real Clear MarketsUS dollar


Who would you short?

Given we received some good feedback to our previous question on hedging we thought we would move on with another one. Again we will leave it posted for a few weeks before collating the answers. We are currently compiling a list of economists and economic commentators who we feel are making Australias and the worlds


Is Aussie Mac real?

Robert Gottliebsen today takes on government guarantees of Australian banks. It is more than welcome that this topic gets greater public scrutiny. It is nothing short of bizarre that the very foundation upon which Australian banks operate has shifted and yet we carry on as if nothing has changed. Nonetheless, there are a series of


Currency meltdown

David Uren has a useful piece this morning suggesting the bull market in gold is presaging a global currency crisis. If money is a store of value, printing more of it represents a devaluation. These concerns were further fanned last week by the central banks of England and Japan. Minutes of the Bank of England’s


(un)luck of the irish

We note once again today that reality has struck back at Europe with economic delusion taking a good punch in the face. The irish economists seemed to have got everything backwards. Perhaps all those good years have got to them; they seriously don’t seem to have a clue what they are doing. Senior Irish cabinet


Deciphering Treasury’s Red Book

Delusional Economics highlights an important Business Day scoop in which they have gotten their hands on parts of Treasury’s Red Book for the incoming government. It includes the following passages: “A key risk for the Australian economy is our reliance on short-term external debt, largely intermediated through the banking system … Among Australian financial institutions


It took an FOI…

We are not sure why in a supposed democracy it takes a Freedom of Information request for someone inside the economic establishment to finally admin a problem exists that has been obvious to many people, including us, for a long time. But it seems that it did. Today we note that under duress Australian Treasury