China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: Vietnam confronts the Chinese ‘charm offensive’ | East Asia Forum– Author: Le Hong Hiep, Vietnam National UniversityVietnam is arguably the most ‘sinicised’ country in Southeast Asia, a distinctive result of more than 2000 years of intense interaction between Vietnam and China.But the Vietnamese absorption of Chinese culture is neither a straightforward process

Latest posts


Hope springs eternal in NAB housing survey

NAB’s quarterly survey of housing insiders shows an improvement in sentiment. And here’s why: Moderating house price declines and stronger rental growth saw NAB’s Residential Property Index move just back into positive territory in the December quarter (+1 point) after two consecutive quarters of negative results. Although conditions improved in all states, there is considerable variation


New home sales slump again

Evidence continues to mount that Australians are not responding to interest rate cuts with a stampede into housing. HIA new home sale for December was just released and gave back most November’s gains: The HIA – JELD-WEN New Home Sales Report, based on a survey of Australia’s 100 largest builders, showed a decline of 4.9 per cent


Chart of the Day: Dig to China

Today’s chart comes via FT’s Beyondbrics blog, and plots the sales of prime mover equipment: I think its rather self explanatory, but here is the analysis from the original blog China Signpost: Excavators offer the purest reflection of equipment demand in China’s domestic market, for two major reasons. First, over the past two years, on


Market Morning

A mixed night on equity markets, as US primary data and corporate earnings disappointed, whilst metal commodities except gold were smashed. Europe rallied on hopium again, although sovereign debt yields eased off, amidst some truly disgusting unemployment figure releases. In detail: The UK FTSE finished slightly up at 5681 points, still below its resistance level


Manufacturing has a good month

The January AIG PMI is out this morning and low and behold manufacturing expanded: Yay! And now for the bad news. The expansion seems to have been driven by an enormous outperformance by a single stomach-stuffing sector: The index is seasonally adjusted but the category seems to outperform every year as the Christmas binge leaves


How to fix executive pay

Since the GFC, there has been a renewed focus on executive remuneration for publically listed companies.  In particular the size and structure of bonus schemes came to the fore after ludicrous payments were made to US banks executives, despite their companies being bailed out by taxpayer funds.  Australia was not immune to this disease, with


Germany leaves ’em in the dust

European imbalances were there for all to see last night with the release of the European employment figures. Unemployment in the 17 euro countries reached 10.4 per cent in December, with the November’s data revised up to the same level. As with the PMI, and pretty much everything else lately, Germany outperformed at the expense of everyone else.


Retail faces double trouble

Apparently consumers have never had it so good. The Aussie dollar continues to float along at cloud like levels and consumers take advantage buying goods much cheaper online, prompting howls of protest from retailers. Economists then suggest that retail spending is fine and we are all overreacting to Europe and need to loosen the purse


Peak oil and growth

Yesterday’s oil production chart prompted some interesting discussion on the economic outlook for a world facing physical limits to energy resource extraction, and the peak of oil production in particular  It is one more important factor to add to the impact of debt dynamics and the political response to recessionary conditions when considering the global


Kochie and Louis

In May last year while commenting on the beginnings of what appeared to be in-fighting in the housing industry data providers I stated: Back when the housing market was booming everyone got their slice of the pie there were no losers so no one needed to argue any particular point or methodology. As long as


February 1 links: Valeaxed

Markets: Up: $US, ore,  grains, gold, Aussie Down: euro, metals, CRB, Treasuries, energy Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany


Trading Day

After a choppy start and then following leads from other Asian markets (and supposedly from “progress” on Greek debt-swap talks), the S&P/ASX 200 Index finished the last trading day of January by selling off in the afternoon, down 6 points or 0.15% at 4266 points. I keep harping on it, but the ASX200 still needs


Another summit bites the dust

As I posted this morning the latest EU summit  has wrapped up with 25 of the 27 nations signing up to a somewhat watered down version of the European economic suicide pact. The treaty is yet to be ratified by member states, but it is already clear that the UK and the Czech Republic aren’t


China links

Courtesy of Sinocism: 民主與狗:孔慶東不懂的事 -联合早报 – A biased view of China|Op-Ed Contributors|chinadaily.com.cn – To attack and censure socialist system is the true intention of distorted portrayal of the country’s human rights environment On the eve of the Chinese New Year, Human Rights Watch released its Global Annual Report 2012. As of old, the organization found fault with


Full RP Data house price analysis

Please find below the full RP Data-Rismark December Home Value Index media release. Here are the key figures taken from the release. First, the change in dwelling values: Note that the -0.2% fall in December seasonally adjusted capital city dwelling values was offset by a +0.3% upwards revision in the November seasonally adjusted figures, from +0.1%


NAB Survey hints at job losses

The NAB Business Survey for December is out today and shows relative stability in the confidence and business conditions components: Business confidence strengthened a little in December, although it remained below the series long-run average. Business sentiment over recent months has been seemingly resilient to the weakness in Europe, which has contributed to a slowing in global


Housing credit growth slows some more

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just released the private sector credit aggregates data for the month of December: Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries rose by 0.3 per cent over December 2011, after rising by 0.3 per cent over November. Over the year to December, total credit rose by 3.5 per cent. Housing credit increased


House prices resume falls

So then, R.P.Data December house price data is out and the melt continues down 0.2% seasonally adjusted for the month: The raw data was much worse, down 1.2% on the month: But there was an upwards revision for November to 0.4%. Below find the full tables, with everywhere falling except  Sydney (which has been supported


Woolworths to dump Dick Smiths

Woolworths (WOW) announced a strategic review of its Dick Smith Electronics (DSE) stores in November last year and posted the results this morning alongside its latest sales figures (up 5.6% in the last half of 2011). The review’s main conclusion was that DSE did not fit the mold of “high volume…market-leading” position, the latter a


Market Morning

Risk markets were down last night, as another talkfest in Europe and Greece pushing back against German interference and a French proposed Tobin Tax irked the risk takers. In detail: The UK FTSE lost over 60 points or 1% to finish at 5671 points, now below its resistance level at 5700 points and stagnating. The


The EU treaty

The EU Summit is still in progress. I will post later in the day on Spanish GDP, French growth, lack of a Greece deal and many other notable events, as well as any summit results. In the meantime please find below a statement out of the summit on “growth” and the latest draft treaty (fifth revision).


Chart of the Day: Peak oil

Today’s chart comes from Gregor.US and offers a glimpse of global oil production at a seeming peak: Today, in 2012, I observe that many analysts of global oil production—and the interaction between oil prices and the global economy—continue to engage in a guessing game about the future. But, frankly, the future has already arrived. And it


US economy stumbles

In mid November I wrote a piece called Can the US consumer carry us all. It was following the release of good October retail sales growth and argued the following: This demand appears to have caught producers off guard, or, they have been managing inventories rather well. The September wholesale inventory number last week was low and


The big spruik goes on

I am not going to spend to much time on this post because most MacroBusiness readers would already be aware of the issue. However, in case you don’t know one of my pet peeves is the liberties available to the Real Estate industry because their agents do not have to conform with the Australian Financial Services Licencing Act.


January 31 links: Risk returns

Markets: Up: $US, ore Down: euro, Aussie, gold, metals, CRB, Treasuries, grains, energy Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany


Fitch dumps big banks onto negative watch

In a move that will probably take the markets a little by surprise, Fitch has just announced it’s placing the big four on negative ratings watch owing to funding pressures and commodity exposure: Fitch Ratings-Sydney/New York/Singapore-30 January 2012: Fitch Ratings says that in conjunction with its broad review of the largest banking institutions in the


Bloody pessimists

Last week I asked a couple of times what kind of economic narrative Canberra is going to adopt given talk of a mining “boom” doesn’t make much sense when folks are losing their jobs. Perhaps we now have an answer from Swanny via News: Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan has conceded that employment growth may not


China holds rates

From Bloomy: China (CNGDPYOY) signaled caution toward more monetary loosening by holding off on a reduction in bank reserve requirementsthat some economists had predicted would come before a week-long holiday ending Jan. 28. Barclays Capital Asia Ltd., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Industrial Bank Co. said this month that ratios were likely to fall ahead of the Lunar New