Trading Day

Midday Summary The market is continuing a broad selloff, as the major constituents across all sectors are down after midday. The ASX200 is down almost 0.75% and is teetering below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are negative but not conclusive of a broad correction as this is likely to be a

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Ray of light for manufacturing?

Today AIG PMI  shows manufacturing still in recession in April. However, there is a the hint of a trend change in both the the headline index and its internal measures. It is slow progress and nobody should be breaking out the champagne, expecially since the dollar has not stopped rising but there is slow progress towards expansion.


Broad based house price falls

Find above a snap shot of the ABS eight city house price index released today. Relative to Rismark, falls are a slower than in Brisbane and Perth but much more widespread, and larger in Melbourne and Sydney. Here is a graph of the eight cities since 2002, It is a long way up to the


Desperately seeking growth stocks

The stock market is developing a bearish character. The impact of the high Australian dollar is being felt on earnings prospects and the weakening housing market is entrenching the two speed economy. Defensive strategies are being dusted off. But given that the options are not especially attractive elsewhere, one possible defensive strategy is to do


TD punctures inflation panic

It is funny how one number can change peoples perceptions. Last week we saw the CPI and the fact that pretty much no-one expected it means that analysts and journos want to talk about and give it more credence than if it had of been inside their range. I believe it’s a form of mental


Take a chill pill

My kingdom for a rational media. Today’s selection of economic commentary, from interest rates to the Budget and carbon taxes is so full of amphetamines that one is tempted to conclude that everyone is still high from last night’s Logies. From the top, we have a piece from Alan Kohler that makes no economic sense:


RSPT anniversary

Sinclair Davidson has a terrific insight today into what transpired in the RSPT debacle for the Rudd Goverment. Much of the piece is derived from freshly released FOI documents: It is now possible to reconstruct much of what was happening within government and the bureaucracy in the run-up to the announcement of the RSPT and


May 2 links: Total hysteria

Inflation rampant. David Uren RBA must hike. Chris Joye, Adam Carr, Terry McCrann Abandon the surplus. Alan Kohler Abandon the carbon tax. Robert Gottliebsen Arrogant RSPT. Sinclair Davidson Our China weakness. Clancy Yeates New mining ads. Here Food financialisation. Foreign Policy China manufacturing slowing. Bloomberg Post crisis growth always sucks. NYT Anglosphere stronger than it


China is different

  We need a new framework for understanding and interpreting what is happening in China. As a friend recently commented to me, there should be three categories of economies: developed, developing and China. China may struggle, but it will struggle in a uniquely Chinese way, and inevitably pose deep questions about the future of capitalism.


Australian Share Market Weekly Wrap

Summary The S&P/ASX200 finished the week 90 points lower, or 1.83 per cent to 4,823 points on Friday. After a sideways move around the 4875 point level, the market experienced a broad sell off on Friday. The market is now back to its pre-Japan/MENA correction pause level, with support at 4800 points. Curiously, the correlation


Weekend reading: Up, up and away

Up: metals, grains, energy, Aussie Down: $US Japan’s wipeout. Alphaville Yuan rising. Bloomberg Inflation or deflation for the US. FT US PMI slows, a bit. Bloomberg Bernanke is hawkish, sorta. Tim Duy Here we go again. Derivatives exempted. FT More austerity excellence. Irish slash growth. FT Canberra cops out on saving. SMH Budget deficit $50 billion. Peter Martin Copper


Australian Dollar Weekly Market Wrap

Another strong week for the bulls in the AUD with an overnight high of 1.0978 and a close just a few ticks lower. It was a week where a combination of factors contributed to the Aussie’s strength with the USD weakness we highlighted last week and then again in my post Thursday.   So it


The RBA’s irrational bet

March Credit Aggregates are out from the RBA  and make fascinating reading. Here’s what the bank had to say: Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries rose by 0.6 per cent over March 2011, after rising by 0.6 per cent over February. Over the year to March, total credit rose by 3.6 per cent.


Seventies with a bullet

Ben Bernanke fronted the press following the FOMC meeting earlier this week and told us that QE2 would proeceed as planned and once completed the Fed would “continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasuries and MBS, so that the amount that we hold will remain” meaning that “the amount of monetary policy easing should remain


Housing falls accelerate

This shouldn’t be a surprise to any daily MacroBusiness readers, but here it is. Capital city home prices continued their downward slide in March, posting their worst slump in at least 12 years as the property market showed more signs of sagging demand. Brisbane and Perth fell the most. National city home values slipped 0.2


Trading Day 29th April

Midday Summary The market opened down sharply this morning, but on a positive lead from Wall Street, which is curious. Support at 4875 points is currently broken, with the 63 day moving average the next level of support (4800 points). Momentum is now negative but not conclusive – I would consider this part of another


Profiting from a property slump

In yesterday’s article I looked at what a housing correction may do to the Australian share market – both from a macro economic point of view as well as the company level.  We discussed which stocks would be exposed and some that may not.  So now let’s see what opportunities a correction may present the


Dutch Disease hitting super returns

Exporters and import competing businesses are both suffering at the moment under the weight of the Aussie’s massive rise since the beginning of QE2. But this got me thinking about our collective superannuation and where it is invested. All Australians contribute to superannuation and while some manage their own, for the most part super is


My baby, Zara

The Australian retail climate isn’t particularly strong at the moment, because bogans are Doing It Tough. Confronted with historically low interest rates, a strong dollar, a resilient economy and low unemployment, the bogan knows that it has to cut back on some things in order to get by. Its newfound love of online retail and Australian


World Bank warns China (Canberra)

The World Bank has damned the lifeboats in its China Quarterly Update and called out multiple risks including a housing bubble, inflation and external imbalances. Here is the money excerpt: Inflation is unlikely to escalate but there are risks. Food price increases seem to have slowed for now, sequentially, and the (yoy) rate of increase in


Special Investigation: The Big Spruik

I have previously spoken about my annoyance with the liberties available to the Real Estate industry because their agents are do not have to conform with the Australian Financial Services Licencing Act. I find this a bizarre legal exception, most especially because the housing market represents $4 trillion of national wealth versus $1.2 trillion in


April 29 Links: AUD rockets for Royals

Up: metals,  Down: grains, $US Mixed: energy Up Again: Aussie new new  new new new record to 1.0947  Business Day Portugal’s turn today Bloomberg Analysis Bloomberg US growth slows to 1.8% in Q1 Bloomberg Weekly Initial Jobless claims increase CalculatedRisk Tornado season in US worst in 4 decades, 259 dead Reuters Syria still boiling CNN


Housing credit to remain subdued

A joint report from JPMorgan and Fujitsu Australia predicts that housing credit growth will remain subdued for an extended period: The three-month annualised growth rate [of housing credit] dropped from nine per cent in September 2010 to 6.7 per cent in February 2011 and is unlikely to return to double-digit growth rates seen before the


Trading Day 28th April

Yesterday’s inflation figures weighed heavily on the market as it dropped almost 1%, but found support at the pre-Easter opening level (4870). Overnight, news from The Bernank that everything is fine, but its not, so we will continue to stimulate, rallied all risk markets (except silver), and the Aussie market has opened up on digestion