Permanent migrant intake to fall to 165,000 in 2017-18

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday at Senate Estimates it was revealed that Australia’s permanent migrant intake could be 25,000 lower than last year on the back of fewer skilled and sponsored working visas. From The Guardian: Australia’s migration program has been at 190,000 since 2012-13, but dropped to 183,000 last financial year and will fall further


Queens Birthday Weekend Chartfest 9-11 June, 2018

Australia   Australia – selected growth metrics   Australia – retail sales   Australian Trade Balance   Company Earnings & Wages   Non farm compensation    Effect of Governments personal tax cuts over time   Effect of Governments personal tax cuts over time 2   Sydney – Melbourne Auction Clearances   Distribution of Melbourne house sales


Weekend Chartfest 2 – 3 June, 2018

Australia   Australia – temporary visas   Declines in 457 visa numbers   Australian National Minimum Wage Increases   Australia – Average and Median Incomes   Australia – Capex   Australia – Capex by State   Australia – changes in dwelling values   Australia – share of dwellings by price growth   Australia – Sydney


Weekend Chartfest 26-27 May, 2018

Australia   Australian Housing – Where headed 1   Australian Housing – Where headed 2   Melbourne and Sydney Auction Clearance rates   Australia – House prices and the RBA   Australian Consumer Confidence   Budget Tax exemption vehicles   Australia – International Student Visas   Australia Productivity & Income   Australia – Public Sector Construction


S11D disgorges

Via Creamers: Brazilian miner Vale expects iron-ore output at its premier S11D mine to reach 58-million tonnes this year, above an official forecast of 50-million to 55-million tonnes, a person familiar with the matter said. The expected increase is due mainly to selling more “canga,” or iron-ore with a higher grade of contaminants – along


Rich List reaches peak oligarchy

If you want an example of why the world’s rich are in deep trouble then look no further that today’s repulsive AFR Rich List write-up: It is Saturday night in late April at the luxurious Mar-a-Lago resort in the billionaires’ playground of West Palm Beach, Florida. Inside the dining room – a faithful replica of


“Beijing Bob” whines about China diplomacy he derailed

Give us all a break, “Beijing Bob“: Angela Merkel is the leader of America’s most important ally. The differences between democratic, US-aligned Germany and Communist-ruled China are real. China’s cutting edge industries now challenge Germany’s lead in manufacturing. But today Angela Merkel is in China, to talk to its leaders in Beijing and to promote


Weekend Chartfest 19-20 May 2018

Australia   Budget Estimates and their revision – great chart from Saul Eslake   Australia Hours worked – total hours and average hours per person   Australia – Employment Growth, health, construction and the rest   Australian Employment Growth – monthly change   Australian Employment – labour market   Wages and employment Wages growth – waiting


Tassie World for Chinese tours as Cradle Mountain tamed

Via The Australian: The Coalition’s candidate for the Tasmanian seat of Braddon claims a $60 million cable car project on Cradle Mountain will do for the north of the state what gambling magnate David Walsh’s MONA art museum has done for tourism in Tasmania’s south. Visiting Cradle Mountain to make the announcement alongside Prime Minister


Australia’s farcical dietary guidelines get Four Corners treatment

By Leith van Onselen Over the past few years, I have called for an overhaul of Australia’s dietary guidelines, including Australia’s Health Star Rating System, which has too often ignored the prevalence of sugar while demonising natural saturated fats. Classic examples of this idiocy are illustrated in the below examples (photographed at my local super


Jobs report even weaker than it appears

Via Credit Suisse’s Damien Boey: Soft March employment data Employment came in well below expectations, rising by only 4.9K in March, with February’s 17.5K gain revised down to a 6.3K loss. Full-time employment fell, while part-time employment rose. Aggregate hours worked rose moderately by 0.3% over the month, taking year-ended growth lower to 3.2% from


MB Radio: Australia’s hidden normal comes out

  Ahead of the May budget Gunnamatta spoke with Leith van Onselen and David Llewellyn-Smith about the economic outlook and the unfolding Australian economic narrative.  In a wide ranging discussion Leith and David cover Australia’s reliance on commodity exports and the implication a subsiding global commodity market has for this dependence, as well as the potential


MacroBusiness Weekend Links 14-15 April, 2018

Morning of the Dust Storm, 1960, Daryl Lindsay, National Gallery of Victoria Macro, Markets & Investing US and China told trade war will trash growth and jobs – Telegraph US-China trade war offers Beijing a historic opportunity to forge a new global order – SCMP China and US in backstage talks to avoid trade war, says


Manufacturing PMI goes boom!

Good news from the AIG: ▪ The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI® ) jumped by 5.6 points to a record high of 63.1 points in March, indicating a faster rate of expansion in March compared to February (seasonally adjusted). Results above 50 points indicate expansion with higher results indicating a


Strayan cricket the perfect metaphor for a dirty nation

Just when our excellent bowling attack was luring me back into cricket comes the great debacle: The International Cricket Council has suspended Steve Smith for a Test match over the ball-tampering furore in South Africa, ensuring that Tim Paine will continue to lead the disgraced team for the final leg of the series in Johannesburg. The


Uber fatality the end for autonomous vehicles?

Via Bloomie: Uber Technologies Inc. halted autonomous vehicle tests after one of its cars struck and killed a woman in Tempe, Arizona, in what is likely the first pedestrian fatality involving the technology. The 49-year-old woman, Elaine Herzberg, was crossing the road outside of a crosswalk when the Uber vehicle operating in autonomous mode under the


MB Radio: The meaning of immigration

Ahead of the ABC’s planned 4 Corners report on a ‘Big Australia’ and discussion about Australian immigration planned for Q&A, Gunnamatta spoke with Leith van Onselen about Australia’s immigration backdrop and the significant ramp up of immigration numbers which occurred in 2006, as well as recent calls for immigration levels to be reduced.  In a


Ken Henry warns on lost tax reform

Ken Henry makes a splash today at The Australian: Former Treasury secretary Ken Henry has blamed successive federal governments for presiding over a decade-long failure to ­deliver meaningful tax reform, leaving government unable to fund itself and average Australians shouldering an increasing income-tax burden to pay for it. The National Australia Bank chairman has also


Iron ore booms, Atlas busts

From ATO today: There are a few important observations to make here: the high discounts and shipping costs add roughly $12 per tonne to Australia’s net iron ore price. The Budget has that at $55FOB when in reality it is more like $67CFR; ATO’s move to beneficiate ore will become an increasing trend across miners that


Mortgage stress shifting from mining towns to cities

Via Mortgage Business: Several industry participants have voiced concern over mortgage stress and the rising risk of defaults, as wage growth fails to keep pace with the costs of living. Approximately 51,500 borrowers could be at risk of defaulting on their mortgages in the coming year, with over 30 per cent of Australians experiencing mortgage


Straya in “notable” slide down corruption index

Hoocoodanode, from Transparency International: Wrap from the ABC: Australia has once again slipped in a global corruption index, suggesting Federal Government measures to crack down on bribery and the diversion of public funds are failing. In a corruption perceptions study of 180 countries conducted by Transparency International, Australia ranked as the 13th least-corrupt nation, ahead


Fake Right prints corporate tax cut propaganda

From the AFR today: But the decision of swing senators like Hanson to oppose a Coalition policy endorsed at the last election did demonstrate how a small think tank, aided by a group of politicised commentators, can undermine government policy and disrupt long-term economic planning. The arguments from the Canberra-based Australia Institute, which has emerged as


MacroBusiness Weekend links 20-21 January, 2018

Loading the Jinker, W Lister Lister, 1914 Art Gallery of NSW   Asia China pads GDP with spending boost before party congress – Nikkei Asian Review China’s economy grew 6.9 per cent in 2017, eclipsing official targets but doubts remain – ABC China asked Marriott to shut down its website. The company complied. – Washington