Miscellaneous

14

NDIS to leave most vulnerable behind

By Leith van Onselen I labelled the $22 billion National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) a “bureaucratic nightmare” citing my family’s own personal experience with our 10-year old autistic son. Despite being diagnosed in the “severe range” of autism spectrum disorder, unable to converse or read, and attending a special school, my son was denied funding for

15

2018 MB Fund Melbourne Seminar announced!

After a full year in the office, we are happy to announce round two of the MB Fund seminar series. This year’s agenda is of course The Great Australian Housing Crash! Come one and come all to see (and meet) Leith van Onselen, David Llewellyn-Smith and Damien Klassen as they discuss just how fast and

37

Why Netflix will continue to dominate Foxtel

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s Roy Morgan Research survey revealed that Netflix had lifted its Australian subscriber base to 9.8 million households after a 30% annual surge in subscribers. By contrast, Foxtel’s subscriber base slid by 2.7% to 5.4 million households: As Foxtel has lost its monopoly grip on the pay TV space, it has pivoted

38

Disruptive technology and investment

Here is an interesting table from Technology Foresight showing the most disruptive technologies and a timeline for when they are expected. I have shown the most imminent ones below, click the image below for the full table as a pdf: I’m interested in your thoughts (preferably with supporting research or at least some sort of reason to

29

As Netflix rises, Foxtel falls

By Leith van Onselen Online streaming services Netflix and Stan have seen their subscriber base lift while Foxtel’s has fallen, according to Roy Morgan Research: Subscription Video On Demand (SVOD) juggernaut Netflix has continued its impressive growth over the last year with over 9.8 million Australians in the June 2018 quarter now having a Netflix

12

Weekend Chartfest: 4 – 5 August, 2018

Australasia     Australia & New Zealand – Unemployment     Australia & New Zealand – Participation     Australia – Housing Credit & House Prices       Australia – House Prices to Median Income       Australia  – Mortgage broker Share of New Home Loans to 3Q 2017       Australia

14

Weekend Chartfest: 28-29 July 2018

Australia       Australia – Dwelling Prices – Expected v Actuals     Australia – Graduate Visas     Australia – Core Inflation     Australia & New Zealand House Prices and Global Equities     Australia – Employment Growth     Australia -Underlying CPI     Australia – Unemployment & Participation    

39

Weekend Chartfest 21-22 July, 2018

      Australia       If the Next 25 Years are like the last 25       The Descent from the RE Peak       Sydney & Melbourne, Prices and Time on Market       Sydney Auction Clearance Rates       Mortgage Rates       Regional Australia Proportional

9

Weekend Chartfest, 14-15 July, 2018

Australia       Major City House Values over last 25 years       House Price growth – Major Cities       Population Increase and Dwelling Investment       Population Growth       Net Overseas Migration by Visa – From July 5 Presentation made in Wollongong by Alexandra Heath    

32

AMP hikes mortgage interest rates

From AMP: We are managing our portfolio in a very active market and our decisions on rates are never taken lightly. We have held off passing this cost on to customers for as long as we can and in fact have not increased interest rates for existing customers since June last year. With any change,

6

Chronically stupid ACCC pushes wrong energy intervention

Here it is: The Australian Government should operate a program under which it will enter into low fixedprice (for example, $45–$50/MWh) energy offtake agreements for the later years (say 6–15) of appropriate new generation projects which meet certain criteria. In doing so, project developers will be able to secure debt finance for projects where they

53

Stress-testing a captured APRA

From the boys at LF Economics: So yesterday APRA came out and said that if unemployment rose to 11%, House prices fell by 35%, and the Chinese economy tanked, that the Australian banking system would be able to withstand the economic stresses associated with this type of economic destruction. So let’s use a bit of

6

Daily iron ore price update (buy the trade war?)

Iron ore prices for July 11, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 50 cents to $62.70. Paper was bid overnight. Steel firm yesterday. CISA late June steel output eased 1.8% to 1.955mt. It should approach last year’s levels more and more as the artificial lift from illegal mills shifting to legal washes through the data. The bulks

50

Go the Poms

Forgot to post this earlier but I’ll just leave it here. In 1990 I lived in London and enjoyed the World Cup first hand as the Poms made the semi-final  versus Germany. When Chris Waddle hit the post in extra time I nearly ruptured my melon on the ceiling fan in the local pub. Then

13

What next for the trade war?

Soc Gen says brace for more: The temptation (primarily for the US but for trading partners as well) is to keep ramping up measures to convince the other side that they are serious about staying the course. Tariffs can be rolled back quickly when an agreement is reached. Because the long-term consequences are likely to be

8

What is the tumbling Shanghai bourse telling us?

From UBS: Trade tensions and deleveraging take a toll on performance Since the 15 June announcement of tariffs between the US and China, MSCI China and CSI 300 indexes lost 7% and 9%, respectively. The selloff is broad-based and reflects market concern about the longer term impact at the macro level. Prior to this, MSCI

11

Bike sharing companies leave Sydney and Adelaide

By Leith van Onselen Last month, bike sharing company, oBikes, announced that it would leave Melbourne following the Victorian Government’s crack-down on the company, which classified abandoned bikes as litter and potentially liable for $3,000 fines. Now bike sharing companies, Reddy Go and Ofo, have announced that they will exit Sydney. From SBS News: Two

13

Weekend Chartfest 7-8 July, 2018

Australia       Australian Gas       Australia Money Growth & Credit       Australia Building Approvals       Australia Dwelling Price to Household Income &  Interest Rates       Australia Temporary Migrants       Australia Underemployment & Wages       Victoria Real Compensation per Employee    

45

Macro Afternoon

As the traders on Wall Street return to their yachts for a night of fireworks, their customers are left with a dour prospect on the return of the bears, as Asian markets continue to selloff. Combined with the US unemployment print on Friday, the mood is seeing USD weakening against the majors with gold rallying

10

Aussie mortgage arrears stable

Via S&P: Australian home loan arrears fell in April. The Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages decreased to 1.36% in April from 1.37% in March, according to a recent report by S&P Global Ratings. The SPIN for nonconforming mortgages fell to a record low for April of 3.86% from 4.19% the

18

Weekend Chartfest June 30 – July 1, 2018

  Australia       Australian dollar and yield differential RBA and US Federal Reserve     BBSW 2018       Australian Short Term Funding 2017 onwards       Funding Costs (BBSW) and Mortgage Rates       Australian interest rate hikes – potential implications for $500k mortgage       Australian Household

449

Weekend Links June 30-July 1, 2018

Vertigo, 1986, Magda Matweijew, National Gallery of Victoria   Macro & Markets Trade and investment between China and the US must be based on reciprocity – SCMP EU cuts migration deal after marathon talks, differences remain – Reuters Global market power and its macroeconomic implications – VoxEU Dollar Squeeze Coming? Watch Asia’s Politicians – Bloomberg

10

Weekend Chartfest 23-24 June, 2018

Australia   The in the pocket impact of Pauline’s sellout tax cuts (…..and the payoff is?)   Total Housing Finance & House Prices (and if the banks are lending less then….)     March Quarter Residential Property     Sydney 6x DTI       Australian Mortgage Payments as percentage of household income    

179

Weekend Links 16-17 June, 2018

All night joint, Frank Andrew, 1946, Art Gallery of NSW I will load more later but I need to run kids around first – G   Global Macro, Markets & Investing Trump announces $50bn in China tariffs, escalating possibility of trade war – Guardian Here’s How a Trade War Between the U.S. and China Could

32

Weekend Chartfest 16 – 17 June, 2018

Australia Australia – change in 20% deposit for median priced dwelling, major cities 2008-2018     Australian mortgage rates     Australia – Credit impulse and house prices (1)     Australian lending growth and house prices (2)     Housing Finance, Annual Growth – Owner occupiers     Housing Finance, Annual Growth – specufestors

57

oBikes suffered from the “tragedy of the commons”

By Leith van Onselen Bike sharing company oBikes has announced that it will leave Melbourne following the Victorian Government’s crack-down on the company, which classified abandoned bikes as litter and potentially liable for $3,000 fines. From The ABC: …oBike announced it would abandon its problematic local hire scheme. …the distinctive yellow bicycles quickly caused headaches