Australian dollar

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Blackrock sees 80 cent dollar

From Bloomie: BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest fund manager, said Australia’s dollar may drop as low as 80 U.S.cents in the coming nine months after bets against the currency helped give one of its bond funds the nation’s best returns. The strategy profited as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates while U.S. yields rose,

3

How low will dollar have to go?

UBS is out cutting its Australian dollar forecast to 85 cents: …replacing the lost (domestic) growth from mining capex over the next few years will critically need more than just a moderate housing recovery (which is clearly underway). The economy’s successful transition will need a lift in non-mining capex and activity to both support growth

1

Macro Morning: Aussie dollar tanks

Friday was a huge reversal of fortune for the Aussie dollar after the widely reported comments from the Chinese Finance Minister which suggest that growth is going to be lower in the second half of the year. While the debate seems to be raging about whether or not he has downgraded policy I think that

4

Return of the King (dollar)

As the US dollar hits a four year high this afternoon, find below a useful note from ANZ on the Return of the King! The market is pushing aside any contrarian USD arguments and focussing on the relativity of central bank forward guidance as the key dynamic in currency markets at present. The dollar has

12

Australian dollar smashed on Stevens’ joke

From FTAlphaville this morning: Central bankers can do many things but they should never, ever attempt humour. To illustrate the point we present the price action in the Australian dollar on Wednesday. That’s a three year low of $0.9055 against the greenback and it followed a ‘gag’ from Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank

16

Macro Morning: Gold tanks

I have to hand it to the Fed they have been as transparent as a central bank can be with regard this taper caper and although the market took heed of more soothing words last night the fact that so many Fed Presidents and Governors are addressing the markets reaction to last week’s FOMC announcement

3

Macro Morning: Dead cat

I don’t trust last night’s rally in US stock markets. Sure everyone in equity land was happy that Shanghai scrapped its way back from nearly 6% down to close to square on the back of PBOC hopes but if markets last week sold off on the basis that the taper is coming and that central

2

Macro Morning: Gold spanked

Markets all over the world came under pressure last night as much from the directness of the Fed’s words and intentions and then a little bit of strong US data and as much from position squaring as investors and traders all over the world reduce their bets and get their funds closer to their index

22

Australian dollar to soar, bellows bull’s bull

From CNBC, Clifford Bennett, perhaps Australia’s most irrepressible bull, has some good news for you: Australia’s economy has been clouded with negative forecasts in recent weeks with some even warning of a dip back into recession, but a recent report argues the economy is poised for a rapid acceleration in the coming months. According to

1

Macro Morning: Crash, bang, wallop

Rightyo, what a night! Bernanke didn’t fluff his words last night as he looked the camera in the eye and said that if things go as the FOMC thinks they will then the taper is on track to begin this year, and that the unemployment rate in 2014 is going to be in the 6.5-6.8%

0

Macro Morning: Shifting sentiment

Is it possible that for all the criticism that has been directed at the Fed that the nuances are actually starting to become apparent between a “taper” and a withdrawal of stimulus? I’ll have a chat about it below but as a recap stocks did really well last night, better than I would have thought

3

IMF to publish Australian dollar reserve holdings

From the AFR: The Australian dollar will from next week be included in an influential global database of central bank foreign exchange holdings, potentially supporting its status as an emerging reserve currency. The International Monetary Fund will on June 28 publish for the first time quarterly central bank reserve holdings of the Australian currency. The

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Macro Morning: Australian dollar sell

Given the choice was extreme volatility or mostly quiet trade in the lead up to the FOMC meeting later this week I’m guessing there are a huge number of traders who are happy that it was quiet market trade that prevailed in the end. All except the Aussie dollar which had another wild night opening