Australian dollar

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Everything I asked about Bitcoin

The econ-blogosphere has been Bitcoin crazy for a while now. I haven’t quite understood what all the fuss is about, and knowing the personalities involved in much of the hype, I was afraid to ask too many detailed questions. But I did anyway. I finally put together my views following Rabee Tourky’s post at Core

9

How to kill bitcoin

Cross-posted from Wolf Richter at Naked Capitalism. The Senate hearing on Monday was the culmination of a three-month investigation into virtual currencies, said committee chairman Sen. Tom Carper (D., Del.). “Virtual currencies, perhaps most notably bitcoin, have captured the imagination of some, struck fear among others, and confused the heck out of the rest of us, including

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RBA misses Australian dollar again

While Ben Bernanke knows how to talk his currency into the ground, our own crop of central bankers have no idea. Guy Debelle appeared this arvo at a conference and, as usual, palavered all around the topic. From the SMH: Debelle says the Reserve Bank would “certainly” welcome moves by the US to return to

1

Australian dollar up as taper fades

The daily proposition that is the taper diminished  Friday as US data came in universally weak and risk was “awn”. The line-up included industrial production for October sliding: Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in October after having increased 0.7 percent in September. Manufacturing production rose 0.3 percent in October for its third consecutive monthly gain.

1

China will weigh on the Australian dollar

According to the SMH: Forecasters are more divided on the outlook for Australia’s dollar than any other major currency as they weigh a boost from a recovery in China against a looming reduction in US monetary stimulus, a Bloomberg has found. The gap between the highest and lowest estimates for the Aussie through mid-2014 is the

12

Australian dollar spikes as ECB, FED print

Sigh, I did warn the RBA to hit the currency again. Instead, the ECB did, from the WSJ: The European Central Bank could adopt negative interest rates or purchase assets from banks if needed to lift inflation closer to its target, a top ECB official said, rebutting concerns that the central bank is running out of

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Australian dollar thumped as taper surges

More taper chatter overnight, this time from noted Fed dove Dennis Lockhart. From Bloomie: LOCKHART SAYS TAPERING ‘COULD VERY WELL TAKE PLACE’ NEXT MONTH LOCKHART SAYS QE NOT MEANT TO BE ‘PERMANENT FIXTURE’ OF POLICY I don’t think so but who cares, the threat is enough. On the data front, it was pretty weak. The

1

Five drivers turning against Australian dollar?

Regular reader will recall that MB uses a “five drivers” model of Australian dollar valuation. One month ago I described how they were turning bullish for the currency. Revisiting those drivers today and it’s a weakening picture: interest rate differentials; global and Australian growth (more recently this has become more nuanced for the Aussie to

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Colebatch: RBA must lower Australian dollar

  Australia’s best non-MB economic commentator, Tim Colebatch is today as eloquent as he right: There is something to be said for conventional wisdom. Since it is widely shared, a government can win support for sensible action by appealing to it. We can’t live beyond our means. Australia has to be a country that makes

2

The users guide to currency warring

Here’s one for the RBA from GS. A guide to the five points of currency warring: Watch for Sudden Policy Shifts – In a regime where stability is achieved via offsetting forces, a sudden change in one of these forces will lead to potentially rapid moves. Changes often result from a major policy shift, as for

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Stop helping the RBA play dead on the dollar

Alan Kohler covers the right subject today but misses a huge opportunity: In essence the desperate fight against deflation in the United States, Europe and Japan as well as China’s incredible infrastructure spending, and now the expectation of reform there, are combining to keep Australia’s currency high. As a result, Australia’s currency is now the

20

RBA bashes Australian dollar in Washington

From the AFR: Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Guy Debelle has said that unintended victims of the US Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary policy stimulus have been told to “suck it up sunshine” because a stronger US economy benefits all nations. Speaking in Washington at an International Monetary Fund conference overnight, Dr Debelle appeared to

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RBA/APRA double team hammers Australian dollar

Can we stop with the ‘central bankers are powerless’ line now? Glenn Stevens hammered the dollar lower yesterday with a blunt warning: Another part of the balanced growth path would involve an expansion in some of the trade-exposed sectors that have been squeezed by the high exchange rate. The foreign exchange market is perhaps another

17

Australian dollar hit by China bubble fears

The Australian dollar got smashed back one cent last night probably as much as anything on having run too far, too fast: But there is also developing meme around China and property prices. Earlier this week, China reported prices rising very strongly. From Bloomie: New home prices in September rose 20 percent in the southern

21

97 cents falls to rampant Australian dollar

Dear God, Australian dollar is rampant, felling 97 cents like it wasn’t there: On the longer term chart, we’re rising as fast as we corrected. The Commitment of Traders Report shows large and small speculators piling in, with oodles of room for more: It’s no secret why. The US dollar is cratering on cancelled taper

4

Crikey laughs as dollar destroys

Bernard Keane and Glenn Dyer at Crikey are busy pumping out macroeconomic smoke again today, this time on the Australian dollar: The problem of dealing with a strong currency when the economy itself isn’t strong isn’t one that that Australian policymakers have had to grapple with before. The policy prescriptions aren’t clear, beyond lowering interest

4

Australian dollar bullish on the crosses

I like short positions on AUD/NZD at current levels (currently trading at 1.1330) from a technical standpoint. The cross is in a strong downtrend and downtrend resistance drawn from the March 14 high is now seen at 1.1407. The daily MACD is below zero, so the recent rally should be confined within this bearish trend.

0

Macro Morning

Cross-posted from ANZ Equities rallied on news that a bipartisan agreement to suspend/raise the debt ceiling until February 7 will likely be reached by the end of the day, thereby ending the shutdown. US equities are up a little over 1% in response, while gains on European markets have been smaller. US Treasuries rallied across the

0

Macro Morning

Cross-posted from ANZ. It was another quiet session overnight. US equities traded in relatively tight ranges early, but lost ground late in the session as US debt ceiling negotiations stalled. US Treasuries were little changed in a quiet session of trading, while both core and peripheral European bond yields sold off. In currency markets, the

0

Macro Morning

Cross-posted from ANZ. It was another relatively quiet session overnight, with US markets closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Markets generally traded within tight ranges, with US equities erasing earlier declines amid tentative signs of progress in resolving the US fiscal impasse. In currency markets, AUD/USD rallied on reports that Republicans and Democrats were close to

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Mrs Watabane returns to Australian dollar

From the SMH: The more than $70 billion a month Japan is spending to end deflation is feeding demand for the higher-yielding Aussie, threatening the Reserve Bank of Australia’s efforts to stimulate its economy. Japanese investors bought 91.3 billion yen ($986 million) more Australian debt than they sold in July, the first overall additions since October