Australian dollar


Australian dollar technicals

From FL comes some neat technicals for the Aussie dollar via Soc Gen: AUD/USD has recently tested a projection at 0.7650/30, also the 76.4% retracement from last December and the 38.2% retracement from 2016. It is worth noting that since 2016, the corrections in the pair tend to bottom out near the 76.4% of previous


Bitcoin’s chart disaster

BTC was hammered last night over new fear of a hack at Binance: More importantly, it drove the price back to its recent support range in the high $6ks: Anyone with half a charting brain can see how important this support has become. That’s a giant bearish descending triangle pattern. Of course, you could argue


Australian dollar breaks support

The Australian dollar broke support last night and headed into the mid-76ers: The key up trend line is still about one cent lower. That’s providing succor to some rusted-on bulls, via Kit Jukes at Societe General: In both Asia in February, and in Spain last week, I have been taken to task for expecting the


Bitcoin crushed again as noose tightens

Here’s the chart: The trigger was this: “Today’s news on Twitter’s ban is likely a significant contributor to the steep sell-off,” said Timothy Tam, co-founder of crypto-market intelligence platform CoinFi. “As new retail investors enter cryptocurrency, a large portion of them are trading on raw emotion.” Which outweighed this: In an open letter to the Securities and


What’s holding up the Australian dollar?

The Aussie dollar is falling but some are asking why it’s not faster, from the AFR: Australian dollar shedding its risk proxy tag. Investors are asking if the Aussie has quietly started to lose its risk barometer role. Indeed, up until mid-last week, markets were piling into the Aussie with a big jump in long


Australian dollar breaks again

DXY took off last night: The Australian dollar took it for the team against DMs: And EMs: Gold may be breaking down: Oil took off as the Sauds and Trump plot against Iran. Even if they succeed I don’t think Europe will join them: Base metals sagged: Big miners dead cat bounced: EM stocks rose


Bill Evans on the driver’s of a weak Australian dollar

Nice video below from Westpac’s Bill Evans summarising his recent Asian tour: I agree with pretty much all of it except I’m more bearish, more quickly on the AUD. FYI, MB has launched a new Australian dollar forecast index which will be updated regularly to keep you abreast of market outlooks. See it here. ———————————————————– David Llewellyn-Smith is


Macro Afternoon

A mixed day here in Asia with most stock markets putting in scratch sessions following the poor lead overnight from Wall Street. The White House is getting a new economic advisor – Larry “I’m never right really” Kudlow, so that should work out fine. US stocks are facing their fourth night of losses if confidence


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Last night saw continued withdrawal of buying confidence this time with economic news actually having an impact as US advanced retail sales surprised to the downside. US stocks led the charge down with the Dow off 1% but commodities recovered on the Chinese retail sales/FAI/production figures yesterday. Risk markets are waiting patiently for


Bitcoin bull trap snapping shut

Here’s the chart: And the analogy that matters. You are passing through “return to normal” on your way to “fear”, “capitulation” and “despair”:  It’s not complex. BTC is simply in the process of being shut down: ATO warns Google bans ICO ads G20 to apply AML to crypto Mt Gox liquidation It will intensify and


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Last night’s February CPI print for the US was overshadowed by continued chaos in the White House with the Russians sacking the Secretary of State via Trump. Stocks fell alongside oil prices as Treasuries rallied and the USD fell against the majors. The so-called recovery from the January correction is not yet


Macro Afternoon

Its been quite mixed across risk markets in Asia today with Chinese markets and their satellites retreating while Japanese stocks put on gains as Yen weakened considerably in the afternoon session. Traders are positioning for a potential spike in USD on the February CPI print later tonight while commodity prices continued to come off the


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker The positive session in Asia yesterday did not translate to further gains on European or American markets as traders await the inflation report after Friday nights stonking NFP print. This sent US Treasuries higher with yields dropping while the USD recovered, stocks were mixed and commodities dropped, with futures suggesting a quiet


Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia reacted very positively to the Friday night US unemployment print and Korean detente. The concerns over a growing trade war were also put aside with sovereign bond yields continuing to rise, while commodities were relatively unscathed by a stronger USD. The Shanghai Composite is making good on its recent close above the


Westpac: Australian dollar to fall and fall

Via Bill Evans: Prospects for the Australian Economy; Markets; and Global Risks As we contemplate 2018 there are a number of key themes that we believe will dominate economic and market developments. Our advice to customers throughout 2017 has been to expect Australia’s growth rate to likely be anchored below trend in both 2018 (2.7%)


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Trump’s titillating trade war simmered down overnight as the exemptions for Canada and Mexico soothed risk markets, while the ECB change on their view on asset purchases slammed Euro from its lofty heights. Commodities fell on the stronger USD as traders start to weigh up tonights NFP print. Recapping action in Asia yesterday