Via CBA: And more: Commonwealth Bank’s economics team, which is tipping another 25 basis point cut to the cash rate in August, which would reduce it to 1 per cent, is doubtful that QE will be introduced “in this economic cycle,’’ arguing there is significant stimulus in the pipeline. …CBA estimates that a local QE program
DXY took off last night as EUR rolled with CNY: The Australian dollar was belted across DMs: And EMs: Gold jumped despite the strong USD: Oil was smashed: Metals rolled: Big miners were OK: EM stocks rolled: But junk is strong, supported by the big bond bid: Treasuries roared: German long bonds hit their lowest
DXY pulled back last night as EUR and CNY fell: The Australian dollar was mixed against DMs: But weak against EMs: Gold held on: Oil eased: Metals climbed: Big miners too: And EM stocks: Junk was OK: Treasuries sold: Bunds too: But Aussie bonds were bought: Stocks flamed out: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap
Via Bill Evans at Westpac: As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25bps to 1.25%. This action is very much in line with Westpac’s forecast first set out on February 21, although it comes two months earlier than our original timeline. The basis for the RBA decision was “to
DXY rebounded strongly overnight. EUR eased and CNY was belted: The Australian dollar was clubbed across the board: Gold sank: Oil too: Metals were better: Big miners were strong: EM stocks struggled: But junk is back big: Treasuries were sold: And bunds: Plus Aussie bonds: Stocks are cock-a-whoop again: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap
DXY was whacked Friday night and has broken its uptrend line (though not necessarily its up trend). EUR leaped. CNY was flat: The Australian dollar jumped to new highs above 0.7 cents but fell against the roaring EUR: It was flat against EMs: Gold firmed again: Oil too: But not metals: And miners were only
Via Bill Evans today: Data supports our view of need for August and November cash rate cuts following June decision. FOMC to act in September and December. Developments since the RBA rate cut on Tuesday 4 June have provided us with further confidence that our forecast for three rate cuts in 2019 will prove accurate.
DXY posted a minor recovery last night as EUR fell and CNY was stable: The Australian dollar fell popped and dropped against DMs: It was mixed against EMs: Gold still hinting at further DXY weakness: Oil is screaming trouble for growth and markets: Metals were weak: And minors: EM stocks fell: US junk gained again,
Aussie GDP was terrible today with absolutely nothing growing beyond a few bureaucrats, via Westpac: Key surprises were: (1) consumer spending disappointed, 0.3% vs a f/c 0.4%; (2) ownership transfer costs (relating to real estate turnover) fell very sharply, -13%; and (3) inventories were a negative, -0.1ppt vs a f/c flat ~ suggesting a larger
DXY fell again last night as EUR rose and CNY was soft: The Australian dollar blasted through 0.7 cents and against DMs: Not so much EMs: Gold firmed: Oil struggled: Metals too: Big miners lifted: EM stocks too: US junk roared back but not EM: Treasuries pulled back: Bunds were bid: Stocks took off: The
DXY sank overnight. CNY fell but EUR jumped: The Australian dollar jumped against the US: But was soft against EMs: Gold confirmed DXY weakness: Oil was smashed: Metals were mixed: Big miners rose: EM stocks too: US junk was hammered. EM will follow in due course: Treasuries are on fire: Bunds were bid: Aussie bonds
DXY dumped Friday night. EUR rose and CNY fell: The Australian dollar jumped against the US but fell against just about everyone else: Gold took off as DXY weakened: The major driver of it all is oil which crashed: The outlook for energy inflation is now completely the reverse: Metals dribbled lower: Big miners fell:
Via Michael Every at RaboBank: There are lots of theories about what factors drives FX markets: interest rate differentials; real interest rate differentials; central bank actions like QE; real effective exchange rates; ‘fair value’; the fiscal deficit; the current account deficit; capital flows; speculation; sentiment; and technicals. (Add your own if I missed one.) Of
He’s going off. Via the FT: Donald Trump will threaten to limit intelligence sharing with Britain if the UK government allows Huawei to build part of the country’s 5G mobile network, a message he plans to deliver in person during his visit to London next week. …One White House official said Huawei would “obviously be
DXY is still strong and has a bullish ascending triangle pattern. CNY firmed and EUR fell: The Australian dollar was soft against DMs: Mixed against EMs: Gold firmed: Oil crashed: Metals were weak: Big miners too: EM stocks did better: High yield is still soft: Treasuries are on a rampage: Bunds too: Stocks held on
Via ANZ: The Australian dollar’s recent leg down has pushed it below USD0.70 – that is, below the trough we forecast for this cycle. The global outlook has deteriorated sufficiently that it no longer provides a plausible cushion to the inevitable reduction in domestic rates. As such, we have lowered the trough in our forecast
The Australian dollar is still well bid in the low .69s this morning: Even as bond yields crater: XJO is cruising for bruising at 16.2 x forward earnings, discounting only iron ore and housing booms ahead: As it chases yield uber alles: Dalian volatility keeps rising: Big iron is off: Big Gas more so: Big
DXY was strong last night as EUR and CNY wilted: But the Aussie dollar was just as strong versus DMs: And plunging EMs: Gold got hit: Oil was soft: Metals fell: Miners soared: EM stocks are stuck: Junk is weakening: Treasuries were on fire: The bund curve bashed: Aussie bonds bid: And stocks are sitting
The Australian dollar is a little bid through the morning as iron ore flushes cash into everything Aussie: XJO too: Bonds not so much, with curve steepening still elusive: Dalian is flat after another overnight party: But Big Iron is up and away. Can RIO run to a pre-GFC record high above $120? Big Gas
DXY was weak Friday night as CNY and EUR rallied: The Australian dollar bounced against DMs: But not EMs: Gold remains quiescent: Oil rebounded: And metals: Plus miners: But not EM stocks: Nor junk: Treasuries were soft: Bunds bid: And Aussie bonds: Stocks added a little: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US April durable
Via Bill Evans at Westpac: Earlier this week Westpac moved forward its forecast for RBA cash rate cuts from the original forecast on February 21 of cuts in August and November to June and August. The June cut remains almost certain; a second in August is our expectation and the November cut should also proceed.
DXY was soft last night as EUR lifted: That was enough for the Australian dollar to lift a little against the USD but the trend lower is clear: EMs cracked: Gold firmed: Oil was smashed: Metals soft: Miners too: EM stocks belted: Junk belted: Treasuries soared: Bunds soared: Aussie bonds soared: As stocks were belted.