Australian dollar


Asian PMIs sink

Trade truce, trade schmuce. This morning’s most China sensitive Asian PMIs have swamped any fallacious good news before it even got off the launch pad. The Korea PMI: “The continued weakness exhibited by the South Korea Manufacturing PMI during June primarily reflects the ongoing global trade slowdown. Panellists reported that this is taking its toll


The Bitcoin crash is rational

Via Bloomberg: Bitcoin’s rise was meteoric this week — and its decline has been just as swift. It’s easy come, easy go in the crypto world, where a frenzy over Bitcoin pushed its price to nearly $14,000 on Wednesday, its highest level since January 2018. The largest digital asset then reversed course in a matter


Australian dollar soars on trade war hopium

DXY was firm last night, EUR and CNY soft: The Australian dollar is suddenly everybody’s favourite currency: Gold eased: Oil was mixed: Metals too: Miners struggled after a GLEN mine collapse in Congo: EM stocks are trending higher again: Junk too: Treasuries were bid: And bunds: And Aussie bonds. Stocks lifted: Westpac with the wrap:


Goldman: Sell Australia!

Via Goldman today comes an ASX downgrade: “At this point, the relative risk/reward seems to favour fading this outperformance in favor of the north Asian markets.” “First, valuations have inflated to nearly 16 times forward earnings per share and 2.1 times trailing book, which are the most expensive in the region relative to the 10-year


Will Zuckerberg destroy Bitcoin?

And herein lies the problem for all crypto, via the FT: Facebook’s hopes of launching a new virtual currency have suffered another blow, as two more financial regulators said on Tuesday they are paying close attention to the social media company’s plans. Both the international Financial Stability Board and the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority have


More on Aussie QE

From Westpac this time: • As mentioned in our front page essay, last week’s RBA Board Minutes did nothing to silence the increasing market focus on the potential for the RBA to venture into more unconditional forms of monetary policy, such as quantitative easing. That is despite RBA Governor Lowe stating later in the week


Australian dollar roars into the G20

DXY was soft again last night. EUR up and CNY down: The Australian dollar lifted against all DMs: And EMs: Gold broke out of its giant, bullish ascending triangle: Oil fell: Big miners rose: With metals: EM stocks were stalled: Junk stable: Treasuries were bid: And bunds: And local bonds: Stocks held on: Westpac has


Westpac: Australian dollar will fight the Fed to fall

Via Westpac: For the FOMC, “uncertainties” now dominate At the June meeting, the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy shifted materially. While their core view of the economy remains positive, “uncertainties” now dominate. Beginning with the core view, it clearly remains constructive. The only real economy forecast to see material revision in June was the 2019


BlackRock: Australian dollar to 0.65 cents

Via Bloomie: The Aussie will extend this year’s decline and probably fall as low as 65 U.S. cents next year, said Craig Vardy, head of fixed income for Australia in Sydney at BlackRock, which oversees $6.52 trillion. The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep easing as the economy cools and U.S.-China tensions weigh on global


Is Bitcoin back?

Bitcoin is back: I won’t even pretend that this is sustainable. Nothing has changed for crypto in my book. It is as worthless and useless as ever. With the same inbuilt contradiction: that if it succeeds it can only fail, given it’s only purpose is subvert a fiat currency system that it does not control.


Gold shines for Australian dollar bears

From some dill at Domain: Gold has just had its longest winning streak in 18 months, as investors get nervous about the impact of the Trump trade wars on economic growth, and the US Federal Reserve looks likely to cut rates. Once again, excitement surrounding the “quasi-currency” metal is building – and the gold bugs