Australian dollar


Will iron ore drag the Australian dollar lower?

No, says ANZ boldly, via BS: ANZ analysts Daniel Been and Giulia Lavinia Specchia said that the falls only present limited downside risk for the Aussie. For starters, they noted that the recent correlation between iron ore prices and the AUD/USD exchange rate is below it’s long-term average. In addition, “the low correlation between the


China intensifies Bitcoin smash

Via WSJ: The crackdown on the bitcoin ecosystem represents Beijing’s possibly biggest effort so far to limit expansion of a system to rival the yuan. In a previous crackdown, in 2009, the central bank banned the use of tokens valued at billions of dollars created in China’s massive online-gaming networks for real-world purchases. A quasiregulatory


BIS warns on Bitcoin

Cross-posted from the BIS: New cryptocurrencies are emerging almost daily, and many interested parties are wondering whether central banks should issue their own versions. But what might central bank cryptocurrencies (CBCCs) look like and would they be useful? This feature provides a taxonomy of money that identifies two types of CBCC – retail and wholesale


Bitcoin crashes as China closes in

The Bitcoin ponzi-scheme is imploding as I write, down by more than one third from its peak: As China shuts the exchanges, from Yicai: September 14, the first financial reporter from the local Internet Financial Governance Office of the regulators exclusive informed that the regulation has been on the domestic bit currency trading platform under


JPM redoubles assault on bitcoin “pyramid scheme”

Following JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, comes notorious quant Marko Kolanovic: Are Cryptocurrencies a New Asset Class or a Pyramid Scheme? What are Cryptocurrencies? Recently, a number of sell-side market strategies and researchers opined on the merits of investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Some went as far as introducing price targets and making relative value


Dimon: Bitcoin is a fraud

Last night we saw some great discussion about bitcoin at the Brisvegas Mb Fund meet, with myself in the “ponzi scheme” corner versus a bunch of readers. Today, alas, my position is endorsed by Jamie Dimon: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon took a shot at bitcoin, saying the cryptocurrency “is a fraud.” “It’s just not a real


China kicks off the great bitcoin policy smash

I’m not going to say sell bitcoin because none of it’s pricing makes any sense anyway. What I am going to say is that policy risk surrounding bitcoin just turned from theoretical to very real, via Caixin: Chinese regulators ordered a halt to all virtual currency trading platforms in the country, acting to further rein


Perfect storm drives Aussie dollar super spike

It’s awwn. DXY broke last night: The next chart support is around 88 cents… AUD took off: Chart resistance does not register until 86ish cents… Gold broke out: Brent too: Base metals were flat: Big miners lifted: EM stocks lifted: Hugh yield too: US yields cratered: As did European: Stocks were flat: It went pretty as


China squashes Bitcoin

I suppose I had better note that: Chinese authorities banned a type of fundraising using cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, dealing a blow to start-ups and other businesses that seized on the relatively new method of raising capital. China’s central bank, cyberspace administration and banking, securities and other regulators have declared what are known as initial coin


“Fuck” crypto surges 400%

Lol, cross-posted from Sovereign Man: I vividly remember having a conversation several years ago with a woman about her real estate investments in the United States. It must have been around 2005 or 2006… the peak of the property bubble. She was a psychologist from somewhere in the midwest, telling me about how she was flipping off-plan condominiums


CBA: Australian dollar on its way to 85 cents

From CBA via the AFR: A continued slide in the greenback could see the Aussie dollar push as high as US85¢ by the end of next year, analysts at Commonwealth Bank say. …Weakness in the US dollar explains much of this expected strength in the local currency, CBA chief currency strategist Richard Grace said in a note


What’s holding up the Australian dollar?

A couple of takes. First ANZ: The run-up to 0.8000 looks stretched. Continued uncertainty about the USD may hold the AUD up, however We see rates on hold at 1.5%. Recent data suggests the risks to the upside are rising. We have used statistical techniques to analyse the language in the RBA’s post-board meeting statements.


NAB raises Australian dollar forecasts

Seems reasonable to me: Having held our nerve through the first seven months of 2017 with our long-standing call for the AUD/USD to fall to 70 cents by the end of this year, the ever-diminishing prospects for a significant near-term recovery in the US dollar now forces us to acknowledge that it is now difficult


Where Trump goes, the USD follows

by Chris Becker Reporting and analysing the demise of the Trump Presidency is not hard work, but it bears well in protecting your portfolio. While a handful of US stocks have benefited since the election, leaving most other markets in limbo, currency-land has been upended as the realisation of a stalemated Congress that cannot enact


NAB: Aussie dollar headed for 83 cents

Via NAB forex: The positive outlook that we have identified in the recent months has shifted to a new level upon the July breakout close above key resistance levels. Both price and momentum triggers remain positive at a LT level. Recent negative price and ST/MT momentum triggers highlight risk of a further correction towards 0.7710/30.


JPM: Aussie dollar to keep falling

Via AFR: Currency experts have had to overcome their pride, and their persistently wayward Australian dollar forecasts, and instead develop a different model for charting the direction of the local currency, as it moves against the US dollar. Shifting commodity prices and a gap in interest rate spreads are complicating Aussie dollar forecasts, but JP Morgan


Bitcoin versus gold

Via Morgan Stanley: ‘…so you’re a commodity analyst, and you don’t track bitcoin? Should I be worried about that?’ – bitcoin enthusiast Latest fiat money: Bitcoin’s value has lifted about 5x since a period of relative stability pre-Nov-16, to over $4,000/bitcoin (Exhibit 1,2), on mainly rising geopolitical tensions. Curiously, we’re receiving investor queries on this