Australian dollar


Bitcoin’s heart of darkness exposed

Some months ago, FTAlphaville’s Izzy Kaminska wrote the following: Once upon a time, eurodollars were dollar-like liabilities issued by non-US entities outside of the reach of regulations that usually govern dollar-issuing entities. No minimum reserve requirements, no access to lender of last resort and no registration applied. Most of the time the assets which underpinned


Morgan Stanley top trade for 2018: Sell Australian dollar

From Morgan Stanley today: We see the RBA firmly on hold in 2018 as the headwinds from a consumer crunch and evolution of a housing slowdown prevent Australia from joining the global tightening bias to monetary policy. The lack of carry for the Australian dollar makes rates differentials and rate expectations much more important in driving near term


Barclays: Australian dollar worst of the G10 ahead

Via Barclays: We see AUD under-performance against G10 currencies. Australia’s growth and inflation are likely to remain subdued. Given its late-cycle position, secular adjustments in the commodity sector and downside risks to construction activity and investment. The AUD remains overvalued and its carry advantage over the USD is likely to continue to narrow, with the


If Bitcoin succeeds, the planet dies

Via The New Daily: The Bitcoin frenzy currently gripping the world is taking an unexpected toll on the planet – in the form of a carbon footprint almost as big as New Zealand’s. And with the cryptocurrency’s astronomical growth showing no sign of slowing, this carbon footprint is likely to grow – prompting some commentators to


How the Bitcoin pyramid bubble will proceed

It’s an eternal story of greed and loss: By the middle of the first decade of the twenty-first century, the psychology of the boom was well established. After multiple years of strong growth and rising asset values, risks seem to diminish in financial markets. The gambler has thrown the dice a number of times, and


Bitcoin is sub-prime currency

The pyramid scheme can always collapse very easily because it relies exclusively upon finding ever greater numbers of fools to keep it rising in price. Usually that’s represented as a pyramid with ever greater numbers required at the base as it grows. But, in truth, it should be represented as in inverted pyramid with ever


The end of Bitcoin

Via the AFR: Currency expert Kenneth Rogoff warns that Bitcoin is “totally a bubble” because governments will ultimately impose regulations on the anonymous crypto currency and depress its value. “But you might get very rich first.” …Dr Rogoff said Bitcoin is “not going to be worth much” within a decade. “I don’t think it will be zero because


Why Bitcoin is not a “big short”

From the suddenly BTC crazy AFR: A bitcoin big short is building. The planned introduction of bitcoin futures contracts at CME Group, Cboe Global Markets and Nasdaq will make it much easier to bet on a decline. Hedge funds, which have largely stayed on the sidelines, are waiting for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s futures market to open for a


Winklevoss Bitcoin billionaires should sell

The Winklevoss twins are back: The twin brothers who sued Mark Zuckerberg claiming he stole the idea for Facebook are worth more than $1 billion after capitalising on the astonishing rise in bitcoin. A $US11 million ($14 million) bet on bitcoin made by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss more than four years ago has ballooned by


Fed warns on Bitcoin

Fed speech last night: Thoughts on Prudent Innovation in the Payment System Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal K. Quarles At the 2017 Financial Stability and Fintech Conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the Office of Financial Research, and the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, Washington, D.C. It is


Bitcoin is a global supernova

BTC surpassed $11k last night: When does BTC become too big to succeed? That’s the question. Not yet clearly but the rate of growth is so out of this world that it is already sight. BTC rose 4200% in 2017. If it repeats that in 2018 then its market capitalisation will be roughly $7 trillion.


Quantum computing will destroy Bitcoin

This is way above my IT pay grade but enjoy, from ENTEXT: Practical ‘Quantum Supremacy’ Demonstration Looms in 2018 ‘It isn’t just a faster computer of the kind that we’re used to. It’s a fundamentally new way of harnessing nature to do computations. People ask, ‘Well, is it a thousand times faster? Is it a


Australia/US yield spread inverts for first time in 17 years

It’s happened. The 2 year Australia/US bond yield has inverted for the first time in 17 years: There’s more ahead as US rate hikes are priced-in and Australian priced-out: Yet the markets remain mis-priced with Australian yields higher out the curve than US: Even though US growth prospects are clearly superior with: looming tax cuts;