Australian dollar

17

Australian dollar coiled spring as ASX warms

Dalian is weak today: But Big Iron firm: Big Gas has finally caught a bid as the oil short covering rolls on: Big Gold trends still look a little sad: Big Bubble is firm just because: And Big Liar: Market of the day is the AUD/USD which remains a coiled spring at long term resistance

23

Australian dollar ramps through 77 cents

Aussie dollar is on fire this afternoon, ramping through 77 cents: The drivers remain: the commodity pain trade; a weak USD and strong EUR as the former has too much tightening priced and latter not enough. These could run right through Q3. That technical pattern is a bullish ascending triangle. If the price can challenge

26

Crypto crashes amid bitcoin “civil war”

I have no idea if any of this madness is real, via Bloomie: It’s time for bitcoin traders to batten down the hatches. Blame the bitcoin civil war. After two years of largely behind-the-scenes bickering, rival factions of computer whizzes who play key roles in bitcoin’s upkeep are poised to adopt two competing software updates at the

28

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker A new financial year begins in Asia with only the Chinese and Australian satellite markets finishing in the red as Japanese stocks react to the weekend elections in Japan. Some of this can be blamed on light volume due to the short week in US trading, which takes Tuesday off. In mainland

28

OMG there actually is a PonziCoin

Via Bloomie: Michael Novogratz says cryptocurrencies could be worth north of $5 trillion in five years — if the industry can come out of the shadows. “The Nasdaq got to $5.4 trillion in 1999, why couldn’t it be as big?” the former hedge fund manager said in an interview, referring the Nasdaq Composite Index. “There’s

3

Iron ore to keep Australian dollar high

From UBS: Is the recent retracement in iron ore bearish for the AUD? No, though further falls would be worrisome. While market woes over a slowdown in China growth appear to have receded somewhat over the past month, iron ore remains fairly depressed at ~$56/t vs. $86/t in Q1-17. However, few believed that iron ore

14

CBA: High Australian dollar “structural”

Amusing stuff from CBA today: It would be surprising if AUD/USD fell below its December 2016 level of 0.7160 simply because there was a negative Australia-U.S. rate differential Structural improvement in Australia’s current-account deficit (to 0.6% of GDP vs 4-5% of GDP in 2001 period) Asian and global GDP growth remains firm, and Asia is

13

Kyle Bass on wrong currency short as Chinese debt “metastasises”

From Kyle Bass today via Reuters: Hayman Capital Management founder Kyle Bass on Thursday said he remains short the Chinese yuan despite the country’s latest change to the guidance rate, because he believes credit bubble problems are “metastasizing.” “What the public narrative is and what they have been doing behind the scenes are two completely