Australian dollar

9

Farewell non-mining tradables recovery

MB has for a long time championed an externally led post mining-boom adjustment for Australia. By that we’ve meant that when Australia found itself with an enormously bloated real exchange rate in 2011, so bloated that everything tradable was being thrown into the sea, including the car industry, the nation needed to do what it

47

ASX staggers as Australian dollar goes ballistic

A currency shock is being unleashed upon Australia: How high it goes is anybody’s guess. I still say low 82-83 cents with DXY falling further yet as EUR powers on. But everything is sure getting overheated. Dalian is falling: The ASX is staggering under the load. Big Iron is trying but can’t get far: Big

5

Westpac: RBA to cap Australian dollar?

Via Westpac’s Robert Rennie: The A$ is toying with top of my fair value model output – above 0.7950 its more than 1stdev above FV. RBA Debelle’s comments enough to cap? I remain of the view that the rush to EUR will still push the Aussie above 80 cents short term. But it’s splitting hairs,

28

Has the Australian dollar already topped?

Friday night saw more DXY weakness: Driven largely by EUR strength: The Aussie pulled back against both: And EM forex: Gold took off, reaffirming more USD weakness: Brent was pounded: Base metals held up: Big miners didn’t: EM stocks sold: But high yield rallied: US bonds were bought: And European: Stocks eased in the US

2

Australia dollar rockets still on fire

DXY is sinking like a stone: The driver is EUR which has broken out big: AUD sold yesterday afternoon but is still afire: Gold was firm but is still weak relative to DXY weakness: Brent was soft: Base metals mixed: Big miners sank: EM stocks stalled: Lead by high yield: US bonds were bid: And

28

Well done, RBA, you now have the hottest currency on the planet

It’s congratulations all around as Australia’s failing post-mining boom adjustment takes another blow today from the hottest currency on the planet. Against DMs it is on fire: Against EMs it is on fire: Gold has nothing on the Aussie: Though oil pretended everything is OK for now: Base metals fell: Big miners eased: EM stocks

1

Westpac sings from MB’s bearish Australia hymn sheet

Nice video here of Westpac’s Justin Smirk on the outlook for China, iron ore and the Australian dollar: Absolutely right. Westpac’s AUD fair value is already stretched and getting stretcheder: The MB Fund offers you the perfect vehicle to maximise returns via a temporary rise  in the Aussie dollar in its pure international equities portfolio of 50 hand-picked stocks:

4

Australian dollar breakout!

And how. The Aussie flew Friday night to new closing highs against USD, breaking out of its ascending triangle pattern and pointing to more ahead: The primary driver was weak US inflation (chart from Calculated Risk): According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.1% annualized rate) in

17

Australian dollar coiled spring as ASX warms

Dalian is weak today: But Big Iron firm: Big Gas has finally caught a bid as the oil short covering rolls on: Big Gold trends still look a little sad: Big Bubble is firm just because: And Big Liar: Market of the day is the AUD/USD which remains a coiled spring at long term resistance

23

Australian dollar ramps through 77 cents

Aussie dollar is on fire this afternoon, ramping through 77 cents: The drivers remain: the commodity pain trade; a weak USD and strong EUR as the former has too much tightening priced and latter not enough. These could run right through Q3. That technical pattern is a bullish ascending triangle. If the price can challenge