Australian dollar

15

US recession fears push Australian dollar higher

DXY eased last night and EUR rebounded: AUD jumped across the board: With gold: Oil was stable: Metals fell: Miners lifted: EM stocks too: Junk tumbled: Despite crashing US yields: Bunds were bid too: Stock held on: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index – a composite index of 85 indicators that

13

Dovish Fed rockets Australian dollar

DXY fell, EUR and CNY jumped last night: AUD was up against DXY but nobody else: Gold was muted: Oil is rising as a threat to everything: Base metals rallied: Miners were soft: EM stocks too: Junk partied: Treasuries too: The bund curve is still flattening: Stocks also struggled: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap

2

Trade doubts sink Australian dollar

DXY was weak last night as EUR and CNY firmed: AUD was nonetheless down the board: Gold was firm: Oil stable: Metals lifted: So did miners, expect BHP and RIO which fell on Vale’s good news: EM stocks are poised for breakout on dovish Fed: EM junk is already there: Treasuries and bunds fell: Stocks

6

Roaring Euro drags Australian dollar higher

DXY sank last night as EUR took off: AUD was strong against DMs: But outdone by EMs: Gold jumped: Oil too: Metals were mixed: Miners strong: EM stocks firmed: Junk launched: Treasuries were bid: Bunds too: Stocks are off again: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US core PPI inflation rose a benign 0.1% in Feb

13

Westpac: Australian dollar to drop to 0.68 cents

Via Westpac’s March update: It has been an eventful month for the Australian economy, with GDP and other key data surprising to the downside, and interest rate expectations shifting. Regardless, at USD0.7079, the Australian dollar is effectively unchanged from USD0.7093 when our February Market Outlook went to print, having held a fairly tight range of

13

Australian dollar loses the plot on Australia

The Aussie dollar barely budged as consumer confidence, housing finance and the NAB survey rained bad news on the Aussie economy: Bond yields have actually lifted today despite RBA cuts now being all but certain: XJO only managed a modest bounce tracking world markets despite everything exposed to domestic demand being in trouble: Dalian launched

5

Australian dollar pinballs from US to China

DXY was soft Friday night. EUR bounced. CNY fell: The AUD rose against USD but fell otherwise: Gold jumped: Oil didn’t: Nor base metals: Miners fell: And EM stocks: And junk: Treasuries were bid: And bunds: Stocks were flat: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US jobs creation came to a grinding halt in February, payrolls

15

Aussie bonds boom again as NAB mulls full rate cut cycle

Everyone except the lunatic RBA is racing in one direction now, including NAB’s Alan Oster: “We now think that the RBA will make two rate cuts in 2019. Growth appears to have lost significant momentum, placing at risk further improvement in the labour market at a time when inflation poses little constraint on policy and

5

BofAML: China to save Australian dollar

BoaML reckons China will save the Australian dollar: While AUD’s sensitivity to global risk has diminished, China-specific risk still matters despite recent decoupling. AUD could benefit if China’s import impulse strengthens; watch high frequency shipment and steel data for early signs . From an economic perspective, the focus on slowing domestic demand potentially overlooks a

10

ECB slams Australian dollar

DXY took off last night and its bullish ascending triangle is at the breakout point. EUR was smashed. CNY is softening: The Australian dollar was pounded to its recent lows: Though not as much as broader EMs: Gold is in trouble: Oil held on: Base metals did not: Big miners were hit: EM stocks too:

7

Australia’s LNG disaster delivers final, monstrous insult

Examine this chart of Australia’s export performance from yesterday: Coal and iron ore have delivered new export revenue booms. However, the most spectacular surge is the takeoff in LNG volumes, which is now mostly complete. This is one reason why the Australian dollar is not as low as it should be. The commodities driven trade surplus has

11

Trade boom lifts Australian dollar

The Australian dollar has lifted from the canvas this morning on Australia’s epic commodities trade surplus: Bonds are still bid as retail failed: XJO is running wild as the asteroid approaches: Dalian is soft again: Big Iron bashed as Rio  goes ex-div: Big Gas is soft with oil: Big Gold is trying. Still not a