Australian dollar


Solid gold Australian dollar outshines all

DXY rallied last night: But that couldn’t stop the solid gold Australian dollar against DMs: And EMs: Actual gold tumbled: As did oil: Base metals were mixed: EM stocks flamed out: Junk is still OK: The Treasury curve steepened for once: Bunds went the other way: Stocks flamed out: A range of tidbits combined to


Fundies add shorts to Aussie dollar rocket

Via Bloomie: The Aussie is poised to go into reverse as the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates, while the Reserve Bank of Australia leaves borrowing costs at a record low, said James Athey at Aberdeen Standard Investments in London, who is adding to his short positions. Schroder Investment Management Australia Ltd., which is also


Five drivers suggest boom and bust for Australian dollar

The Australian dollar took out its September ’17 peak on Friday night with a new intra-day and closing high: How much higher will it go? MB’s five drivers model for fair value is: global and Australian growth (or, more recently, Chinese growth and Australia’s terms of trade); interest rate differentials; investor sentiment and technicals; and


Weak Kiwi inflation drops Australian dollar

From Stats NZ: Prices rose 0.1 percent in the December 2017 quarter, Stats NZ said today. Higher petrol prices, air fares, and housing-related costs were countered by lower prices for vegetables, new cars, and a range of household goods. The relatively flat result this quarter leaves the consumers price index (CPI) inflation rate at 1.6


Aussie crypto fund opens (to the sound of crickets?)

Via Financial Standard: One of Australia’s first funds to specialise in crypto asset investments is now open to wholesale investors with its first investment planned for February 1. Apollo Capital is accepting minimum buy-ins of $50,000 and will invest in digital currencies, other blockchain-based assets and initial coin offerings (ICOs). Described as an actively managed


Goldman: Bitcoin is “human insanity”

Via MarketWatch: The latest to issue a stern warning against the world’s largest digital currency is Goldman Sachs’s investment management division, which wrote that there is “no doubt” that the cryptocurrency’s astronomical rise over the past year “has pushed it into bubble territory.” The firm added that bitcoin’s “meteoric rise in a short time has


Westpac: Australian dollar “expensive” again

Via Westpac comes the factors in the Australian dollar rise: Westpac Australian export weighted commodity index is at 1yr highs; Risk sentiment in global financial markets has also been positive; AU-US 2yr swap spread is at fresh lows back to December 2000; Our fair value model framework thus suggests that as much as 70% of


Bitcoin crashes again as Korea moves to tax it to death

Via Fortune: South Korea’s government is hitting the country’s cryptocurrency exchanges with massive tax demands, in its latest attempt to rein in the booming and volatile sector. According to a finance ministry official, cited in a Yonhap report on Monday, South Korean cryptocurrency exchanges will this year need to pay 22% corporate and 2.2% local income


Kohler’s cryptoconfusion deepens

From Alan Kohler today, who can’t make his mind up about cryptocurrency: Much the same bafflement applies to the rest of the great and the good choppering into Davos today, and let’s face it: it IS hard to know what to make of bitcoin, and the other cryptocurrencies. …There are initial coin offerings (ICOs) almost


More notes on a falling USD

A couple of factors to mention that can be influential in sending DXY lower the very short term. The first via the ABC: The weak performance in US markets overnight was partly due to investors’ concerns about a potential government shutdown tomorrow. This could be averted if Republicans and Democrats in Congress can agree to


Australian dollar rocket still hot

DXY is trying to find traction but without much success yet: AUD remains hot against DMs: Less so against EMs: Gold is also sniffing around for DXY strength: Oil was firm: Base metals too: Big miners were soft: EM stocks weren’t: Junk fell: US yields rose and the curve steepened: Bunds are stuck still: Stocks paused:


Is North Korea behind the Bitcoin crash?

Cross-posted from FTAlphaville: Note: this is just a theory. One of those of things that pops into your head when you’re in the shower after a long run. It may be nuts — and we certainly can’t prove it — but it happens to be consistent with publicly-available information. Part 1: The North Korean regime


Bitcoin crash intensifies

It’s turning nasty for BTC with $10k now history: A note from Capital Economics is uncharacteristically blunt: Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish; our view is that Bitcoin is a bubble. Indeed, the latest price falls suggest that the bubble is bursting – although with prices still ten times higher than


Joke cryptocurrency passes $2bn

Via Motherboard: Jackson Palmer is an Australian entrepreneur and technologist best known for creating the infamously successful “joke” cryptocurrency Dogecoin. Currently based out of San Francisco, Jackson works as a product manager but is still active in the cryptocurrency space. Jackson has holdings in various cryptocurrencies, including less than $50 worth of Dogecoin. You can


Fundie: Sell Bitcoin

So says fundie Michael Glennon: When I start to see retailers accepting bitcoin or utility companies accepting it then I will believe that it’s not just a quasi-ponzi scheme, selling something that has no value. It’s a currency that doesn’t do anything, is not backed by any sovereign nation, is not accepted anywhere, is hard


NAB: Australian dollar to fall in 2018

Via NAB: The underpinnings of the current uptrend are likely to be eroded as 2018 progresses leading NAB to keep their forecasts for the Aussie Dollar bearish. The Australian Dollar’s recent rally has been built on a combination of factors, including rising commodity prices, M&A flows, demand for bonds and rising risk appetite, but will


Webinar: Bitcoin or Bitcon?

Enjoy: ———————————————————————– David Llewellyn-Smith is chief strategist at the MB Fund which is currently long local bonds and international equities that offer superior growth and benefit from a falling AUD so he is definitely talking his book. Here’s the recent fund performance: Source: Linear, Factset The returns above include fees and trading costs on a


Bill Evans: Australian dollar to slump

Via Westpac: We confirm our forecast that the AUD will drift even lower in 2018 ending the year at around USD 0.70. Readers will be aware that one core driver of this expected deterioration in the AUD is our view that the overnight yield differential between Australia and the US will narrow significantly. Our target