Australian Dollar

Australian Dollar Analysis, News and Forecasts

The Australian dollar, Aussie dollar (AUD) is one the world’s great commodity currencies. Founded in 1966 and floated in 1983 the Aussie “battler” is the 5th most traded currency in the world despite the economy being only the 12th largest by GDP.

The Australian dollar spent much of its first two decades post-float consistently devaluing from the pre-float value of $1.48 US dollars in 1974 to a low of 47 cent in 2001.

Subsequently it broke this huge downtrend with the rise of the Chinese economy and it’s insatiable demand for raw materials – especially those inputs into steel production, iron ore and coking coal – which Australian was endowed with in abundance. It topped this enormous turnaround in 2011 at $1.11 versus the US dollar.

As the super cycle entered decline so too did the Aussie, falling to a low of 68 cents in 2016 and still falling.

However, the Australian dollar  had became popular as a small reserve currency holding with foreign central banks. As the value of the currency virtually halved during the bust they kept buying. Because global central banks were fighting both low inflation and oversupply worldwide, many engaged in an overt currency war, deliberately devaluing their currencies to capture or protect global market share of production. This was exacerbated by private sector flows pursuing the “chase for yield”.

This proved a challenge to Australian macroeconomic managers as the commodity bust persisted. Without the lower value, the Australian economy was unable to compete in non-resource sectors. The Reserve Bank of Australia embarked on a series of interest rate cuts, jawboning and, eventually macropudential policy, to bring the Australian dollar to fair value.

There are five drivers to the currency. Australia’s relative position vis-a-vis Chinese and its own growth; interest rate differentials, the strength or otherwise of the US dollar; the terms of trade and sentiment. Each of these tips into any fair value model but over time the primary driver is the terms of trade. The relative strength of each waxes and wanes with wider trends. For instance, during the “tech bubble” of the late nineties the Australian dollar was battered lower by poor sentiment as it was seen as a pre-tech dinosaur. After the “tech bust”, the currency rapidly recovered as sentiment turned favourable for real assets like commodities.

MacroBusiness covers all apposite data and wider analysis of these issues daily.

20

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are likely to finish the week on a sour note as the expected Brexit extension from the EU plus some very modest inflation and economic figures from Japan combined to dampen overnight positive sentiment. Australian stocks were the only ones to advance as the Aussie dollar remained depressed after its overnight reversal

48

Macro Afternoon

Asian markets are mixed today in response to the overnight FOMC Meeting with much higher undollar assets providing headwinds. Japanese stock markets were closed, while the Yuan appreciated as the PBOC set the strongest rate since July last year. The Shanghai Composite is back over 3100 points, currently up 0.7% to 3113 after yesterdays sudden

69

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are down again today with risk sentiment slumping both locally due to the dour speech by RBA Assistant Governor Bullock while regionally caution reigned as traders await tonight’s Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Currencies slid against USD as a result, with a lower Aussie the standout. The Shanghai Composite has dropped suddenly after

54

Macro Afternoon

A generally poor session across stock markets here in Asia with a run to Yen not helping while the Aussie dollar remains elevated, pumping the brakes on any advance on the ASX200. The Shanghai Composite is having a breather, after yesterdays 2% pop, currently down about 0.2% to 3091 points but still looking strong. The

91

Macro Afternoon

Following the very positive finish on Wall Street on Friday night, risk markets here in Asia have popped higher, with the Australian dollar advancing strongly, albeit on the tightening yield spread with US Treasuries. The Federal Reserve meeting this week will affect sentiment, along with a series of important economic releases – let alone the

46

Macro Afternoon

Today’s BOJ interest rate meeting came and went without much fuss, as Chinese markets were buoyed by higher house price growth. The USD retreated against all the majors, particularly offshore trading in Yuan. The Shanghai Composite was doing well mid session but is now heading towards 3000 points, still up over 0.5% to end the week

99

Macro Afternoon

It was a mixed repsonse to the trifecta of Chinese internal economic data, slightly overshadowed by the Japanese government looking to downgrade its growth forecasts, which sent Yen falling against USD. The Yuan fell too on the lower PBOC fix, while Pound Sterling continued its no deal Brexit reaction and sold off throughout the usually

76

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are fighting poorly against a risk off sentiment with the fallout from the failed Brexit deal last night in the UK still reverberating. The Aussie dollar alongside the Kiwi has fallen while Yen remained firm with the latest consumer sentiment data locally hurting the Pacific Peso. The Shanghai Composite is selling off

83

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are doing well following the solid Wall Street lead with the USD still looking weak heading into tonights CPI print. The Australian dollar has continued its bounce off the 70 cent level while Yen has sold off giving Japanese stocks a small boost to start the week. The Shanghai Composite is putting on

52

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are mixed following the disappointing NFP print on Friday night, although it seems risk off has been priced in by most markets as the USD takes a breather. The Australian dollar has bounced off the 70 cent level while Yen has sold off giving Japanese stocks a small boost to start the week.

59

Macro Afternoon

The big fall in Chinese trade for February has seen a big slump on stock markets across Asia, not helped by the poor showing on transatlantic markets as the ECB plays catchup to the prospect of a Euro-wide recession. Yen has surged against the USD on the safe haven bid, while the Aussie dollar is barely

86

Macro Afternoon

The confluence of a poor night on Wall Street, a stronger Yen, the Huawei story, plus a bunch of nasty local data has seen risk mainly taken off the table throughout Asia. Locally, traders are bidding a pup to the moon on the ASX200, while the Aussie dollar tears back on the record trade surplus,

132

Macro Afternoon

A mixed day here in Asia as Japanese stocks take a dive while locally, the ASX200 is supported by the almost baked in rate cuts coming for the Australian dollar as the GDP print comes in lower than expected. The Shanghai Composite is the standout, up 1% going into the close and remaining well above

99

Macro Afternoon

Risk is taking a holiday here in Asia in response to the slump overnight on Wall Street with the USD gaining strength against most of the majors not providing the usual help. The RBA meeting also failed to ignite animal spirits with the Australian dollar largely unchanged. The Shanghai Composite is the standout, up 0.4%

57

Macro Afternoon

A generally positive end to the week here in Asia with most stock markets putting on meaningful gains, buoyed by positive numbers out of China and Japan, plus a higher USD suppressing local currencies. The Shanghai Composite is ticking along, only up a few points going into the close and remaining above 2900 points at 2945.