Chris Becker

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Macro Morning

Risk markets ran out of puff overnight as the prospect of a meaningful stimulus package from the US Congress waned, with Treasury yields moving higher and risk currencies rangebound as a result. Commodities prices moved higher in the confusion, but gold and Bitcoin suffered large drops before later recovering somewhat. Volatility is tracking low which

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Macro Afternoon

Outside China, Asian stock markets are pushing higher today despite dashed hopes of more stimulus from the US Congress, and some of the worst days in Europe for new COVID-19 infections and deaths, let alone the out of control pandemic in the US. Bitcoin has broken down after being relatively steady above the $19200 level,

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Macro Morning

Wall Street re-engaged the fear of missing out rally again overnight, sending the S&P500 to a record high in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic at its worst stage (so far). Risk taking didn’t extend to anything else however, with Treasury yields lower while commodities prices were largely unchanged alongside major currency pairs, although Bitcoin

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Macro Afternoon

Most Asian stock markets are struggling to find direction today after the tepid sessions on Wall Street overnight as traders remained confused to the response of the latest US unemployment print.  Bitcoin is still relatively steady at the $19200 level, while gold has leapt to a two week high, finally back above its pre-breakdown levels

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Macro Morning

A wobble in the risk complex overnight, put down to concerns over the out of control pandemic in the US but really due to a lack of economic events and/or news about further stimulus from the US Congress. The USD rose slightly while bond yields fell back from their recent run higher as the 10

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Macro Afternoon

Outside local markets its been a very poor start to the trading week with most Asian stock markets closing with solid losses, following what was a very upbeat night on Wall Street in response to the latest – and poor showing –  US unemployment print.  Bitcoin is still relatively steady at the $19400 level, while

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Macro Morning

Bad news is good news as Friday night’s NFP (non farm payrolls aka US unemployment print) was so bad, it was good news for stocks as Wall Street headed to record highs in the middle of a severe pandemic and growing recession. Why? Because worser jobs figures equals betterer stimulus chances coming from Congress which

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Macro Afternoon

Outside local markets its been a tepid end to the trading week with most Asian stock markets looking to close with minor losses going into tonight’s US unemployment print.  Bitcoin is relatively steady at  the $19400 level, while gold has put on more gains, slowly climbing higher to be at $1841 as it struggles to

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Macro Morning

Wall Street stalled out again with only tech stocks gaining while the USD fell back against most of the majors despite better than expected initial jobless claims in the US in a fairly tepid session that only really saw the FTSE and Pound Sterling gain on continued Brexit talks. Commodities kept pushing higher in the

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Jess Irvine pretends to care about freedom

The Age’s Jessica Irvine is suggesting Australia needs to avoid a Trumpian trade war with China at all costs, dumping the textbook “free trade is always good, everywhere” excuse without even considering a nuanced – or assertive – middle ground approach. To wit: Trade wars are dumb. That’s why it’s usually politicians who start them.

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Links 4 December 2020

Macro & Markets UN: COVID-19 to worsen poverty in 47 poorest nations – DW Americas U.S. bans cotton imports from China producer XPCC citing Xinjiang ‘slave labor’ – Reuters (cue the cotton picking cartoons) Democrats took a risk to push mail-in voting. It paid off – Guardian (hasn’t paid off yet….) Hundreds of Staten Island

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Macro Afternoon

A small rebound in risk appetites here in Asia today despite the mixed messages overnight with most stock markets rising on the chances that more stimulus from the US Congress may actually be on the way (Mad King aside not signing it). Bitcoin is relatively steady below the $19000 level again, while gold has put

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Macro Morning

Wall Street stalled out at record highs again overnight with tech stocks retreating slightly as no news of the proposed stimulus from Congress pulled USD back again. US Treasury yields made a new monthly high as they barrel into the 1% level while commodities saw some upside action with oil gaining over 2% alongside copper

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Links 3 December 2020

Macro & Markets Humans waging ‘suicidal war’ on nature – UN chief Antonio Guterres – BBC Warren Buffett’s favorite market indicator nears record high, signaling stocks are overvalued and a crash may be coming – BI The west must live up to its own principles on democracy  – FT Americas Canada PM Trudeau indicates U.S.

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Macro Afternoon

The expected follow through of risk taking from Wall Street has not occured in Asia today with scratch sessions throughout the region on stock markets. Bitcoin  has fallen back below the $19000 level again, while gold has stalled out above the $1800USD per ounce level following its bounce overnight: The Shanghai Composite is up only

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Aussie offshore debt plunges

Westpac have their latest note out on the country’s financial account: The COVID-19 pandemic sent shock waves through Australia’s financial account in the first half. The September quarter has since seen a return to more normal conditions. From the data for the nine months to September, it is evident that foreign investors’ appetite for Australian

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CBA sees a big boost in 3Q GDP

CBA are out with their expectations for Q3 GDP, which they reckon will increase on a real basis by 2.5%, easing the 2020 COVID recession losses. Here’s the report:   ■ Annual growth, revisions aside, should lift to ‑4.4%. ■ Household consumption will increase sharply while dwelling investment, public spending and inventories will add to

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Macro Morning

Another swing back to risk sentiment overnight with stocks on both sides of the Atlantic surging while the USD fell back against the majors as gold also lifted back above $1800USD per ounce. This was mainly on the back of some possible good news around US fiscal stimulus and some progress in the EU/Brexit divorce

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Links 2 December 2020

Macro & Markets Copper on course to notch seven-year high as Goldman calls bull market – FT The coronavirus pandemic has translated into a decade’s worth of growth for e-commerce – IBT Leaked documents reveal China severely underreported coronavirus cases as the pandemic spread – Business Insider Fears grow over mysterious, massive Chinese fishing fleet

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Macro Afternoon

Risk appetites are back with generally good sessions across the regions stock markets with the latest RBA meeting – a hold – not exciting animal spirits that much in currency land. Bitcoin is only $400 or so off its record high from 2017, staying well above $19000, while the weaker USD is finally helping gold

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CoreLogic November Home Value Index up 0.8%

The bubble is back baby! CoreLogic’s November data shows that by early 2021, COVID losses will be filled in and its onward and upward to more housing wealth for all*. Here’s the report: Australia’s housing market continued along a recovery trend through November.  CoreLogic’s national index recorded a second consecutive monthly rise in November, with dwelling

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Macro Morning

Month end selling dominated overnight markets but it was also a big bounce in USD fortune that dampened risk appetite, with European stocks off by more than 1% while Wall Street eventually stumbled to about half that loss. Pending home sales in the US surprised to the upside, while commodities were all over the place

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Macro Afternoon

The higher than expected PMI prints in China today and sending stock markets in the Middle Kingdom higher while other bourses across Asia are in retracement mode despite the solid lead from Wall Street from Friday. Bitcoin is bouncing back harder, now well above $18000, while the weaker USD is still not helping gold at

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Australian dollar peaking before RBA meeting

The Australian dollar has been on fire since the US presidential election and the announcement of some successful COVID vaccines, having breached 74 cents against USD and matching its August highs: This has been a long road of recovery for the Pacific Peso, having dropped from circa 70 cents to the low 50’s before matching

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Macro Morning

The Tesla bid sent Wall Street up higher on Friday night following the return on traders from the Thanksgiving holiday with European markets putting in a good show despite a big spike in Euro, as the USD went down across the board. Gold stumbled again, falling to a new monthly low while Bitcoin held off

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Links 30 November 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Norway makes its first discovery of highly pathogenic bird flu, H5N8 – Reuters The ASX is set to close out its best month since 1988 on Monday and investors are hopeful the strong rally will continue – AFR HSBC considers exit from US retail banking – FT $15 trillion

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Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are stumbling along across Asia after no lead from Wall Street overnight due to the US thanksgiving holiday. Bitcoin is trying to maintain itself above $17000 after getting tripped up falling over 10% yesterday, while a weaker USD is not helping gold much, still at a monthly low as it barely hovers above

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Macro Morning

A very quite night on risk markets with most US markets closed due to Thanksgiving with an expected slow and quiet end to the trading week here in Asia. European markets followed the trend and did almost nothing, with all eyes on Bitcoin which dropped over 10% in a single session, as bond markets also