Chris Becker

112

Macro Afternoon

Risk is wavering throughout Asian stock markets with only Japanese stocks advancing as the USD firms against most of the major currencies in the lead up to tonight’s Federal Reserve meeting. While half of Reddit is watching GME, the other half are still watching Bitcoin which still can’t get out of its Friday night breakdown

3

Macro Morning

Last night saw a wobble in Wall Street despite the IMF upgrading global economic growth projections and a fall in the USD. European stocks lifted strongly to the upside, but US stocks couldn’t follow in kind despite some vaccine good news.  Treasury yields lowered slightly, the 10 year remaining above the 1% level while commodities

131

Macro Afternoon

Risk is back on the table with Asian stock markets up across the board as the USD reverses its short term strengthening as we start another trading week and look towards the FOMC meeting. All eyes on Bitcoin which broke down on Friday below the $30K level but has come back in weekend and start

2

Macro Morning

Friday night saw the release of the latest PMI surveys on both sides of the Atlantic, with the US print unexpectedly higher but that economic recovery didn’t help risk markets higher with Wall Street finishing the trading week on a sour note. The USD came back slightly in defence while US Treasury yields lowered slightly,

111

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets end the week on a poor note, having absorbed the Biden inauguration and initial policy reversals, with commodity currencies weaker against USD as gold and silver remain relatively steady. Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $30K level but has had a small boost this afternoon, but is this enough to stave off a

6

Macro Morning

  Last night saw the frothiness in risk markets take a small pause as bond yields rose slightly on the lower than expected US weekly jobless claims, as the latest ECB meeting also made no waves. The USD continued its retreat however, while commodities were mixed, Bitcoin crashed to a new monthly low. The cryptotulip was

105

Macro Afternoon

Share markets are rising in co-ordination following the Biden inauguration, with risk appetite soaring overnight, with the USD in full retreat as gold and silver is breaking out to new highs. The latest numberwang saw the Aussie dollar reach new highs, but Bitcoin is slowly deflating however, again selling off throughout the session to be

84

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are somewhat mixed and unsettled going into tonight’s newsflow with Trump “serving” his last day as US President, with focus and realisation of both further stimulus and big tax increases confusing risk appetites. Bitcoin is at another crossroads, having sold off throughout the session to be back below the $36K level and

4

Macro Morning

Two events changed risk appetite overnight with the closely watched German ZEW survey and Janet Yellen’s testimony in Congress supporting the bullish mood on Wall Street as traders returned from the US long weekend. Oil prices lifted more than 2% while the USD retreated against most of the majors. Bitcoin continued its tepid start to

101

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are no longer unsettled as the realisation that an adult will be in the Oval Office in a few days kicks in the risk spirits with broad gains across most markets and S&P futures looking bright for the return of traders from the US long weekend. Bitcoin is a bit disappointing, not

4

Macro Morning

The US long weekend had a deleterious effect on trading volume and hence volatility overnight with most risk markets remaining in stalled mode as they await there queues from Wall Street. European bourses had slight rises while currency markets were equally sanguine. Bitcoin started the week with lower volatility than usual, hovering around local resistance

89

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets remain unsettled after Friday’s fizzer on Wall Street, as the upcoming Biden presidential inaguration later this week is possibly hindering risk taking. Gold and silver had wide trading ranges to start the week while Bitcoin has been falling sharply later this afternoon after it failed to breach the $40,000 level late last

6

Macro Morning

Friday night saw risk markets continue their reversal of confidence as Biden gets closer to taking the presidency and a very large – and taxing (sic) – stimulus package comes forth. The latest consumer confidence numbers doubled down on the weak US economy meme following the initial jobless claims surprise, putting pressure on the Fed

171

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are very unsettled going into the final trading session of the week, with the Biden stimulus plan not landing on the right note for risk takers as higher taxes are definitely on the agenda. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are not pulling back to any new session lows, while Bitcoin

10

Macro Morning

Action on risk markets was muted last night due to the release of the latest jobless claims in the US, followed by the post-close Biden stimulus package announcement, with the former unexpectedly nearly hitting the 1 million mark. This has reassessed chances of a taper by the Fed, with bond markets starting to trickle higher

2

Daily iron ore price update (record imports)

The iron ore complex settled a little on Thursday, although shorter-term futures pushed higher as restocking demand increased at mills across China. Texture from Reuters on the record levels of imports of iron ore: “(Mills) are currently at pre-holidays restocking period, adding that steel profits are good, there’s a possibility that they will increase purchase

39

Links 15 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Trump signs amended China investment ban, requiring complete divestment by Nov. 2021 – Reuters Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII – BBC Moderna CEO says the world will have to live with Covid ‘forever’ – CNBC Bitcoin closes in on $40,000 as bulls flood

104

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are moving higher almost in unison, with Australian shares lagging but finally putting in a decent bid as Japanese stocks head above new decade highs. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed with both unable to put in new session highs, while Bitcoin continues to hang on above its technical breakout level above

5

Daily iron ore price update (steel reductions)

The iron ore complex was still elevated in trading yesterday, but coking coal futures took a dump as spot iron ore remained bid above the $171USD per tonne level: Having run at huge levels through much of last year, Chinese steel inventories have corrected to normal levels: This leaves mills with less scope to manage

2

Macro Morning

It was the return of the king last night – king dollar that is – with yet another reversal in USD due to a very solid US inflation report, with core inflation bang on target while year on year inflation actually ticked higher than expected. This saw a selloff in the majors while the usual

19

Links 14 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Oil prices rise to near 1-year highs as vaccines, stimulus and Saudi Arabian production cuts lift the energy outlook – Business Insider Benchmark LNG cargo prices soar 18-fold in less than nine months, outperforming other commodities – Bloomberg COVID herd immunity will not happen in 2021, says WHO –

33

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are quite mixed with a big inversion in direction today as Japanese stocks rallied, Chinese bourses dropped while the ASX200 did 2/5ths of nothing again.  Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are putting in mild upswings in the short term, while Bitcoin is at a key technical point here, ready to

14

PBOC strengthens yuan as China goes into lockdown

The PBOC has been strengthening Yuan against USD throughout 2020 and that trend is not stopping in the new year, with the latest onshore fix set at 6.4605, a big drop down from yesterday’s 6.4823 as offshore trading (USDCNH) gets below the 6.45 level. The weekly chart shows the strength of this trend with the

5

Macro Morning

Last night saw a solid reversal in USD, blamed in part on the Fed with several speeches by Federal Reserve officials overnight putting a hawkish bent on their position in 2021. Furthermore, US Treasury yields fell back on some soft auctions with bond markets starting to broadcast further volatility ahead. Oil prices lifted again alongside

6

Daily iron ore price update (restocking blues)

Winter restocking in China has disrupted steel prices across the iron ore complex with rebar futures down more than 3% during Tuesday’s session before slightly recovering, as coking coal also dropped. This hasn’t effected the spot iron ore price, or indeed Dalian futures which are treading water: The fallout from the WA government’s cash grab

15

Links 13 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Scientists Warn of an ‘Imminent’ Stratospheric Warming Event Around The North Pole – ScienceAlert Norway to increase carbon tax from $95/tonne to $240/tonne – Upstream The next big risk: Three Wall Street leaders reveal what worries them – Bloomberg Chinese start-up leaks 400GB of scraped data exposing over 200

123

Macro Afternoon

Asian markets are still very hesitant to take on more risk with the return of Japanese markets still not providing any catalyst for more upside, except on mainland China. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are finding some life later this afternoon, while Bitcoin is rallying again after dropping down towards the $30,000 handle,

7

Macro Morning

Markets restarted the week with volatility, as hopes and fears over stimulus and 2nd Trump impeachment collided with the USD providing the safe haven of choice. Oil prices came off only slightly as a result while other commodities pulled back, but the real news was in “stable next currency to replace everything” Bitcoin. After breaching

99

Links 12 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: U.S. Capitol siege a ‘wake-up call’ for democracies, top EU diplomat says – Reuters (beware the dangers of populism and nationalism) Boeing to pay $2.5 billion to settle U.S. criminal probe into 737 MAX crashes – Reuters Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan will delist some Hong Kong-traded structured