Chris Becker

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Macro Afternoon

Not a good finish to the week here in Asia with all stock markets reporting a loss as pessimism around any trade deal between the US and China builds, with Trump’s focus on domestic issues and creating an “emergency” as political theater. The USD has reversed again with gold prices lifting slightly. The Shanghai Composite

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed day here in Asia with most stock markets treading water as everyone awaits the outcome of the ongoing US/ China trade talks plus the possibility of another Trump shutdown later in the week. The Shanghai Composite finally put in a scratch session after riding a big wave all week, closing just a few

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are still floating along on a positive sentiment vibe while the USD reversed course overnight, surging against the majors and knocking gold back to its lowest level in two weeks. Treasury yields continue to climb, now above 2.71% as the latest CPI print came in a little hotter than expected.

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Macro Afternoon

Another solid day on stock markets across Asia following the moves higher on Wall Street overnight with Chinese stocks leading the way as expectations for the US/China trade deal become more positive. The Australian dollar launched on the sentiment survey while the Yuan remained firm against USD. The Shanghai Composite closed nearly 2% higher, making big

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets were buoyed last night by another government shutdown aversion and hope that the US/China trade talks will amount to something, as rationale repairs Trumps ridiculous policies. The USD reversed course as a result, with both Pound and Euro surging, while US Treasury yields lifted again to a new weekly high.

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Macro Afternoon

The poor showing on Wall Street overnight was brushed aside here on Asia with solid lifts across all stock markets today with a big return from Japanese stocks due to the long weekend and much weaker Yen. The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 0.6% going into the close, currently at 2671 points and building on

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are very mixed with a stall on Wall Street not replicated in Asian or European markets, with the latter helped by a much stronger USD. Although US Treasuries sold off slightly, the lessening prospect of any further interest rate rises by the Fed was overshadowed by concern of the continuining

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed start to the week on risk markets here in Asia with another public holiday in Japan taking a lot of volume off the table, while the welcome return of Chinese markets is seeing confidence lift, at least on the mainland. The USDCHF pair had a big flip higher on what looks like another

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Macro Morning (Trading Week)

By Chris Becker  Looking at Chinese stocks first, where last week saw the Shanghai Composite closed for most of the Chinese New Year holiday, reopening on Friday with a solid close to be 1% higher and continuing to stabilise above tentative support at the 2600 point level. With the US/China trade talks the main focus, possibly

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Macro Afternoon

The lack of progress in both the Brexit no-deal and the US China trade talks continues to weigh on risk markets with overnight losses festering into the Asian session today as some Chinese markets return from holiday. In currency land most undollar assets are unchanged but the Aussie dollar is failing against the crosses, notably

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are selling off going into the end of the week with a lack of progress on the US China trade talks to blame while the European Commission downgraded their latest growth forecasts. A run to safe havens was the result overnight with US Treasuries rallying while European currencies stabilised after

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Macro Afternoon

The biggest loser in the Asian session today was the Kiwi on a big job number miss first up this morning, falling more than 100 pips against USD and AUD. Aussie stocks lifted on the back of a much weaker Australian dollar and a continued rebound in bank and financials. US and Eurostoxx futures are

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Equity markets were subdued overnight with both sides of the Atlantic registering minor losses as traders take a pause amid a much stronger USD surge. Treasuries were bid slightly while the Australian dollar continued to fall on the change in the RBA’s bias from yesterday’s speech from Governor Lowe. Looking at the

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Macro Afternoon

The Asian session was generally upbeat today followed the positive lead from European and Wall Street overnight. The bottom fell out of the Aussie dollar as Governor Lowe indicated a “more evenly balanced” approach to interest rates – read: they’re gunna cut! Due to the Chinese New Year holiday only a few share markets are

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A big rally in shares on European markets overnight, followed by solid moves on Wall Street will ensure a robust session here in Asia on the open. The USD rose slightly although gold came back, but the biggest casualty was Pound Sterling dropping to a near monthly low. Looking at the action

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Macro Afternoon

The Asian session was mixed today due to the Chinese New Year holiday with only a few markets open, Japanese bourses put in a scratch session while the ASX200 launched higher on the post-slap on the wrist “don’t do that again” bank trade. The RBA did nothing at its meeting this afternoon, keeping rates steady

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A mixed session in overnight markets with European stocks retreating while US bourses advanced alongside the USD with bond yields also on the up and up. Without much dataflow except some earnings reports, markets have nothing but the new Fed trend to go on, and no news is good news for most

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Macro Afternoon

The Asian session starts the week in a strong position, stocks bouncing after the coming and going of Friday nights US unemployment print, which saw a general advance in the USD. Australian macro news was not good today, sending the Aussie lower before tomorrow’s RBA meeting while offshore trading in Yuan was quite volatile due

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Macro Morning (Trading Week)

By Chris Becker  The February non-farm payroll numbers came and passed on Friday night sending markets back into caution mode as the print solidified the Federal Reserve new-ish dovish mood that patience on further interest rate rises is warranted. Looking at Chinese stocks first, where last week saw the Shanghai Composite finally stabilise above tentative

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Macro Afternoon

Outside China it’s been a flat finish in the Asian session with most stock markets putting in scratch results as the US/China trade talks recommence. Currency markets are also sanguine although the Yuan has weakened for the first time this week leading into tonights NFP print. Chinese shares continue to move higher with the mainland

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Daily iron ore price update (ore really)

by Chris Becker We’re still seeing jumps in prices across the iron ore complex as reaction to Vale’s failed mining operations continues to spread: Meanwhile locally, Fortescue are continuning to ramp up production, with a 5% lift in its second quarter shipments, particularly the mid-grade ore. More from AFR: The world’s fourth-largest iron ore producer

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The USD has recovered slightly from the post FOMC dovish sentiment move as US stocks continued their rally as solid earnings reports keep coming in. European shares are a little rattled by the Italian recession now baked in while German unemployment was unchanged, the ECB is looking down the barrel of more

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Links 1 February 2019

Global Macro/Markets Central bank gold-buying reaches half-century high– Financial Times OPEC oil output drops in January on Saudi cut, outages and sanctions – Reuters Americas Family Behind OxyContin Maker Made Billions, Say Court Papers – Wall Street Journal Sarah Sanders: God ’wanted Donald Trump to become president’ – The Hill (same God who gives kid’s terminal cancer?) U.S.

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Macro Afternoon

The Asian session was dominated by the release of the latest Chinese PMI manufacturing numbers, which remained in contraction mode, while the PBOC gave the Yuan a big push higher against USD, manuevering before the latest round of trade talks with the US. The reaction to the Federal Reserve’s meeting overnight has seen most undollar

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The Fed gooses the golden egg

by Chris Becker Gold has tracked higher alongside the Trump government shutdown and following the January FOMC meeting overnight, has now burst through the $1300USD per ounce level to make a new six monthly high priced in USD: The Fed’s shift into a somewhat dovish stance was not based on the underlying US economy – although

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Yuan fix goes long and strong into US trade talks

by Chris Becker Big moves by the PBOC today after the release of the Chinese PMIs which remained in contraction. The official fix was strengthened to 6.7025 from 6.7343 with offshore Yuan trading catching up quicksmart: This has been part of a greater move, orchestrated since the beginnings of the US/China trade talks to give

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Hard Brexit looking more likely

by Chris Becker A little primer first to get you up to date on the mess that is Brexit – from The Economist:   Amid the farcical scenes within the Parliament, overnight a hard Brexit – i.e no deal, just get on with it – looks more and more likely. From the ABC: European Union

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Daily iron ore price update (Vale spike)

by Chris Becker Huge spikes in spot and future iron ore prices in reaction to the Vale mine disaster yesterday: Is iron ore on track for the elusive $100 per tonne level again? Many think so, and it may not need the usual Chinese stimulus to do so. From AFR: “While there is uncertainty around

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A newly dovish Fed is goosing risk markets and sending the USD into a tailspin overnight, with the latest FOMC Meeting resulting in a hold on any further rate rises. The Brexit shenanigans continued but had no material impact on Pound while other undollar currencies like gold lept higher. Today will be

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Links 31 January 2019

Global Macro/Markets The Shutdown Is Making it Harder for Economists to Understand the Shutdown – Time (now that’s some 3D Trump Chess going on there!) Malpass emerges as leading contender to head World Bank – Financial Times No correlation between top tax rates and growth rates – On The Economy The Case for More Short Selling – Institutional Investor