Chris Becker


World Bank cuts growth forecasts

by Chris Becker Following on from the dreadful German industrial production print overnight, there’s more signs that the global growth machine is sputtering. The World Bank is out with it’s latest growth forecasts, and have slashed away, with advanced economies to drop to 2%: Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2019.


Links 9 January 2019

Global Macro/Markets Washington downgrades EU mission to US – DW.COM Nellie Liang Withdraws From Consideration for Fed Board Seat – Wall Street Journal 10 Major Trends Driving Banking in 2019: Banking’s Evolution Accelerates – Forbes World Bank president resigns, paving the way for a Trump appointee at the helm of this global lender – NBCNews Americas Mick Mulvaney is


Macro Afternoon

A fairly positive day on equity markets across Asia in response to the solid uptick on Wall Street overnight, although caution reigns as the US China trade talks get underway so Chinese shares are slowly retreating as Yuan appreciates against USD. The Shanghai Composite is down around 0.3% or so at 2524 points as confidence wavers,


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker As the US-China trade talks get underway, sentiment in risk markets remained buoyant overnight, with USD retreating and oil rising more than 2% as equities continued their Christmas bounceback. The US government shutdown maybe nearing its end but this news has already been priced in, while currency markets are returning to more


Links 8 January 2019

Global Macro/Markets Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha ends 2018 with 14.6 pct gain -source – Reuters Double Whammy: High-Fee Mutual Funds Do Worse – Wall Street Journal Economic worries hang over U.S.-China talks – Politico Krugman on optimal taxes – The Grumpy Economist World unprepared for slowdown, says IMF’s Lipton – Financial Times Americas As shutdown drags on, Trump officials make new


Macro Afternoon

A strong start to the week here in Asia in reaction first to Friday’s US unemployment print but then Chinese stimulatory support and the lower volatility on currency markets. Risk proxies like the Aussie and Kiwi are up despite the fall in the USDJPY pair, while Chinese equity markets advanced but not as strong as others,


Moody’s adds to the Melbourne property gloom

by Chris Becker Moody’s are out with their suburban forecasts for Melbourne, pipping another 6% fall across the city and even double digit negative growth in certain areas: Australia’s Ongoing Housing Correction, Based on the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast Moody’s Analytics forecasts that the Australia’s housing market will continue to correct in 2019, after


Australian dollar is a loser

by Chris Becker It’s the official start to the New Year after the two week break and of course, all the economists are out with their *predictions (YMMV) about the direction of the Aussie dollar. To wit, ABC: Citi’s Paul Brennan described the bank’s forecasts for the end of 2019 as “not particularly exciting, with


Links 7 January 2019

Macro/Markets The Economics of Soaking the Rich – New York Times American Economic Association: How Can Economics Solve Its Gender Problem? – American Economic Association Fed Chairman Powell to Markets: I Hear You – New York Times History has some troubling lessons on bear markets – Financial Times Apple Beware: Samsung’s Great Fall in China Was Swift – Wall Street


Weekend Links 5-6 January 2019

Artist : Jeffrey Smart (Australia, b.1921) Macro/Markets What the market forgot about Trump: The fiscal boost was temporary, but the chaos was permanent – Marketwatch Investors pile into money market funds amid market turmoil – Financial Times Last Month, Investors Seemed Too Pessimistic. Now, They Seem Prescient.– New York Times Google shifted $23 billion to tax haven


Macro Afternoon

Diverging fortunes here in Asia today as Chinese stock markets rallied while re-opened Japanese bourses slumped, catching up to the NY party. Currencies also diverged with a selloff in Yen followed by a gain in Aussie dollar as traders pre-position for tonight’s US unemployment print. The Shanghai Composite rallied hard from the open to be up 1.4%


2019 to be a volatile year for Australian foreign policy

Cross posted from The Conversation by Susan Harris Rimmer Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Griffith Law School, Griffith University By the end of 2019 we should be able to assess how Australia is travelling with the grand plan laid out in the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper. In this, an election year, I examine the status of


Fake News: Last chance for FHBs!

Via News comes today’s headline grabbing news: With a state and federal election just months away, the recommendations of the banking royal commission expected within weeks and several crucial policies hanging in the balance, the fortunes of young buyers could reverse swiftly. chief economist Nerida Conisbee said first homebuyers were now faced with a crucial


Gold hits record high in Australian dollar terms

by Chris Becker Yesterday’s flash crash on currency markets had another silver lining – the price of gold in AUD reached a new record high at over $1879AUD per ounce: It’s been a near rocket ride since the equity slump, proving gold’s usefulness as a Minsky Metal in times of stress: Although the daily chart


Bad Santa lands on Kathmandu

Via KMD: Same store sales down is very poor trading. The response for retail stocks was predictable: We also saw this a few days ago: The softening housing market is affecting the tourism sector, with Flight Centre reporting tough leisure travel conditions and Sydney Airport revealing domestic traffic dropped by more than 1 per cent


Moody’s: bonds need to rally for stocks to stabilize

From Moodys: The world is now incapable of shouldering a 10-year Treasury yield above 3%. A remedial decline by the U.S.’ benchmark interest rates will be critical to rejuvenating global business activity and stabilizing financial markets. Otherwise, the corporate earnings outlook might deteriorate by enough to sink the market value of U.S. common stock by


Global debt reaches new record highs: IMF

by Chris Becker Just in time for the New Year crash, here comes some stellar news from the IMF (my emphasis added): Global debt has reached an all-time high of $184 trillion in nominal terms, the equivalent of 225 percent of GDP in 2017. On average, the world’s debt now exceeds $86,000 in per capita terms,


Links 4 January 2019

Macro/Markets Investors Are Betting That the Fed Hits Pause on Rate Hikes Wall Street Journal Yanis Varoufakis | The Euro Has Never Been More Problematic YouTube The World Is Getting Quietly, Relentlessly Better Wall Street Journal Asset Management’s Squeezed Middle Faces a Bleak 2019 Wall Street Journal Apple warns on Q1 results CNBC Americas Trump-loving economist caught red-handed ’making up


Macro Afternoon

Wow what a day to be a FX trader! Bigly volatility on the Yen and crosses, with the Aussie dollar losing nearly 3 cents within a few minutes! Most currencies are nearly back to where they started, but this has had a big impact on equity markets with the catalyst being Apple’s late earnings revision


The paradigm now shaping our world’s digital cities

Cross posted from The Conversation: by Davina Jackson Honorary Academic, School of Architecture, University of Kent Today’s smart cities rely on networks: squillions of semiconductor devices that constantly pulse electromagnetic waves (light and radio frequencies) through telecommunications satellites. Data Cities, by the author. Lund Humphries (2018), Author provided Another genre of satellites, equipped especially for Earth