Chris Becker

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Trading Day – 16th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down over 1% this afternoon, continuing the second leg of a correction that began in early April (down over 7%). Asian markets are also down, with the Nikkei down 0.6%, the Hang Seng 1% and Singapore 0.7%. The AUD is down to 1.05 against the USD, and 85 against the Yen

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Trading Day – Friday the 13th

The S&P/ASX 200 is down slightly this afternoon, with some intra-day buying support similar to US markets recovery last night. Asian markets are down, with the Nikkei down 0.25%, the Hang Seng 0.4% but Singapore up over 0.46%. The AUD is back to 1.06 against the USD, and 86 against the Yen (which is highly

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Peak profits

The big four banks have posted interim results (ANZ, NAB, WBC) and updates (CBA) this last week to the market. In this post I intend to articulate the consensus view, analyse and value the banks and provide a contrarian view to why they are likely the most riskiest stocks on the market. Consensus rules The

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Trading Day – 12th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down over 1.4% this afternoon, after digesting the slump in commodity prices and US/Euro markets overnight. Asian markets are all down, with the Nikkei down 0.8%, the Hang Seng almost 1% and Singapore just over 0.6%. The AUD has slumped to just above 1.06 against the USD, with a midday update

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Transitional Planning for Boomers

Readers of MacroBusiness have turned my attention to a recent “AskNoel” question on Domain from 2 (early) baby boomer investors. Q. I’m 48 and my husband is 55. As a result of renovations blowing out to $300,000, our mortgage is $690,000.  Our home is worth $1.1 million. We have two positively geared investment properties, owing

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Trading Day – 11th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is up almost 1% this afternoon, after digesting last night’s Budget. Asian markets are up generally, with the Nikkei up 0.5%, the Hang Seng steady and Singapore up slightly. The AUD is rising past 1.085 again against the USD and 87 against the Yen (which is highly correlated with the ASX200) Local

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CBA Quarterly Update

As the last of the big four banks, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) released its quarterly update today. CBA operates on a slightly different financial calendar to the other 3 big banks and this is just an update with a summary, not interim/half year results. Profit and Earnings Unaudited cash earnings for the quarter ending

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Trading Day – 10th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down slightly at midday, with strong intra-day selling pressure. Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei down a little but Hang Seng and Singapore up. The AUD is steady at 1.07 against the USD and 86.5 against the Yen (which is highly correlated with the ASX200) Short term price action as

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Trading Day – 9th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is up 1% at almost 4800 points after finding a bottom late last week. Other Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei down a little but Hang Seng up, Singapore steady after their weekend election results. Short term price action as illustrated last week showed a decelerating correction – it looks like

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Trading Day – 6th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down but slowly recovering at 4740 points after last nights shock fall in commodity markets (oil down 10% alone, AUD/USD down to 1.05) Short term price action resembles a decelerating downtrend (note red curve under low points in last week on chart below). The index (XJO) is hovering above its 260

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Sell in May – a repeat of 2010?

Regular readers may remember that each morning I peruse my bearish sounding “Crashlist” before starting the day trading the Australian equity markets. This list comprises the major currencies crosses, indices, gold, 10 year US T-Note and the US Dollar Index. A well deserved dip in “risk” markets across the world has been transpiring for most

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Trading Day – 5th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is steady at 4740 points with some intra-day buying support. Telstra is adding weight to the market, rallying up 1.4%. Retail sales figures surprised the unsurprisable economists, which has weighed slightly on retail stocks. The index (XJO) is dicing with its 200 day moving average (a closely watched indicator) and is still

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Gold: This Time is Different

Asset markets are effectively all the same: housing, shares, commodities, FX, precious metals, pork bellies and interest rates. They are all markets for speculators to trade, investors to get a return of and on their money and sheep to think they can buy and hold (or negative gear) forever. As I’ve said before, gold in

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down almost 1% to 4755 points from a 4971 point high on the 11th April, a 4.3% total loss in the current dip. Momentum and other technical indicators continue to be very negative. The small short-lived Easter rally looks like being the “dead cat bounce” as part of an overall correction

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Westpac “boring”

WBC released its 2011 Interim Results today. Below is a brief summary of the key figures along with select graphs taken from the broker presentation. Profit Reported Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) was up 14% to $3.961 billion with growth in cash earnings of 8% with all divisions (incl. NZ) experiencing growth. Similarly to ANZ,

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down over 1%, or 51 points at 4773 at 1pm AEST, below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are very negative as this broad selloff continues to hit all sectors. Three consecutive closes below the 15 day moving average are indicative of a correction pattern, but medium term

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Trading Day

Midday Summary The market is continuing a broad selloff, as the major constituents across all sectors are down after midday. The ASX200 is down almost 0.75% and is teetering below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are negative but not conclusive of a broad correction as this is likely to be a

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Australian Share Market Weekly Wrap

Summary The S&P/ASX200 finished the week 90 points lower, or 1.83 per cent to 4,823 points on Friday. After a sideways move around the 4875 point level, the market experienced a broad sell off on Friday. The market is now back to its pre-Japan/MENA correction pause level, with support at 4800 points. Curiously, the correlation

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Trading Day 29th April

Midday Summary The market opened down sharply this morning, but on a positive lead from Wall Street, which is curious. Support at 4875 points is currently broken, with the 63 day moving average the next level of support (4800 points). Momentum is now negative but not conclusive – I would consider this part of another

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Trading Day 28th April

Yesterday’s inflation figures weighed heavily on the market as it dropped almost 1%, but found support at the pre-Easter opening level (4870). Overnight, news from The Bernank that everything is fine, but its not, so we will continue to stimulate, rallied all risk markets (except silver), and the Aussie market has opened up on digestion

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Trading Day – 27th April

Summary After peaking sharply on the open, the market has settled slightly up after the almost week long Easter/ANZAC break, at 4918 points. NOTE: as I was compiling this report, the PPI figures came out and the market has sunk over 20 points after midday. The short term trend remains weak but positive on momentum,

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Trading Day 21st April – green across the board

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index (and others) Its green across the board: all stocks, futures and commodities are up and gold has surpassed $US1500 and change – but paradoxically

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Trading Day: 20th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 has bounced back slightly this morning on reflated overseas markets, up 0.7% around midday. As I said yesterday, the market

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Trading Day: 19th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 has fallen substantially this morning and continues into midday trading, hovering around 4800 points. This is now well below its

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Gold to break through $US1500 an ounce?

Gold looks like breaking through the $US1500 an ounce level in overnight trading. This new nominal historic high comes as no surprise due to the metals relentless march upwards in a primary bull market that has lasted 10 years. What is surprising is golds recent correlation with all other risk assets (e.g equity markets, commodities

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Trading Day: 18th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is subdued this morning, just above 4850 points. The market is hovering just below its 15 day moving average and decelerating.

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Weekly market analysis

Australian Market Summary The S&P/ASX200 index closed the week at 4852 points, slipping a further 0.66% on Friday, going down for the fourth day in a row. Overnight action in the US and EU supports a theory that this is just a dip, with the Dow rallying almost 0.5% and the FTSE 100 up over

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Trading Day: 15th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to yesterday’s or earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down 16 points to 4867. The market is hovering above its 15 day moving average and slowly decelerating.

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Trading Day: 14th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to yesterday’s or earlier notes that I’ve made. S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down 44 points to 4867. Leighton (LEI) is weighing on the market after plunging 15% on the open. I see nearly a wall of red on my quote screen. The market is

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Bulls are in charge as the bears hibernate

Risk markets look like completing their “dip” overnight, with the US markets up slightly (NASDAQ up 0.6%), Euro markets up strong from 0.36% (Italian) to over 1% (German DAX) and our own market up 0.25% through to the Hang Seng (HK) up 0.66%. As I mentioned in a recent post, dips occur within rallies, and