Chris Becker

35

Chart of the Day

Today’s chart comes from Avid Chartist, and shows why understanding the US equity markets for an Australian investor is paramount. The chart shows the ASX 200 and S&P 500 both priced in US dollars (USD), for all of 2011 up to September 12. They have tracked each other especially closely since early May, just after

7

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 0.8% or 34 points today to 4072. In after hours trading, the market is up another 15 points whilst Euro and US futures point to gains. Asian markets experienced similar moves, with the Nikkei 225 up nearly one percent to 8616 points, whilst the Hang Seng is closed for

10

Chart of the Day: Secular bull

Reader JR asked yesterday what is meant by a “secular” market – here is the best visual explanation and puts current market volatility in context, from Doug Short. The literal meaning of the word: Market historians call these “secular” bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum “long period of time” (in contrast to

17

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 3.7% or 156 points down today to 4038. In after hours trading, the market has slumped another 20 points whilst awaiting the Euro and US sessions, both of which are down 2-4%. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with the Nikkei 225 down 2.3% to 8535 points, now below its earthquake

14

Chart of the Day: GDP or not GDP

That is the question. Although GDP is rightly condemned as a poor indicator of economic prosperity, it is the number one metric for economic “growth”. And from Leigh Harkness’ blog comes this fascinating chart (and accompanying data source) showing GDP per capita remains at March 2008 nominal levels: And here’s the US version, from Econompic,

1

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 finished flat again today, up only 7 points or 0.2% to 4194 points after a strange session where strong bids pushed the market up over 0.5% before the post-lunch session prompted a sell off going into the weekend. In after hours trading, the market has slipped whilst awaiting the Euro and US

13

Obama’s 11th Hour

Find below the full text of US President Barack Obama’s speech: Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, and fellow Americans: Tonight we meet at an urgent time for our country. We continue to face an economic crisis that has left millions of our neighbors jobless, and a political crisis that has made things

5

Chart of the Day: Euro/USD breakdown

Avid Chartist, a fellow trader and follower of the markets posted an interesting set of charts yesterday. Most intriguing is a trading setup that has macroeconomic repurcussions, the breakdown of the Euro/USD and one that we’ve been following closely at MacroBusiness. Here is the short term chart of the Euro, note the descending triangle, a

9

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 finished flat today, up 4 points or 0.1% to 4188 points after a volatile session where it breached 4200 points before a disappointing jobs data release. In after hours trading, the market is just holding on to these gains awaiting the Euro and US sessions, which will likely react to both Ben

5

Chart of the Day: Shipping signals

Today’s chart via Colin Twiggs is the Harper Petersen & Co index of container shipping rates: The index reflects international demand for container vessels and is a useful measure of international trade in light manufactured goods. Falling international trade would have the greatest impact on export-oriented Asian markets like China, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.

1

Time to refinance?

The question has been legitimately raised, as fixed interest rates fall, is now the right time to re-finance? This week, housing finance results showed a bounce for refinancing, primarily driven by QLD: Interestingly, visual analysis of the nominal levels shows a stall in refinancing, whilst established dwelling lending (i.e buying houses off each other) has also reversed

4

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 rebounded strongly today, up 107 points or 2.6% to 4183 points. In after hours trading, the market is holding on to these gains awaiting the Euro and US sessions, which are also likely to be bullish. Asian markets experienced slightly smaller gains, with the Nikkei 225 up 1.9% to 8756 points whilst

16

Chart of the Day: USD rally

The overnight action of the Swiss Central Bank (CNB) effectively pegging the runaway Swiss Franc (CHF) has to be looked at in context to the USD, which is experiencing a reversal of its own. First, let’s have a look at what the CNB is fighting against: the two year plus rally of the CHF vs

4

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 fell again today, down 66 points or 1.6% to 4075 points. In after hours trading, the market is up slightly to 4100 points waiting (dreading?) the European market open and a probably gap down when the US re-opens after the long weekend. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with the Nikkei 225 losing

9

Decrease in CAD equals lower GDP

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released current account figures for the June 2011 quarter (emphasis added) today: In seasonally adjusted, current price terms, the current account deficit fell $3,696m (33%) to $7,419m in the June quarter 2011. Exports of goods and services increased $5,837m (8%) and imports of goods and services increased $2,985m (4%).

17

Chart of the Day: Equity carnage

Given the events of last night (German DAX down 5.3%, UK FTSE down 3.5%, Italian MIB down 4.8%), today’s chart will be an overview of equity markets and their short term patterns. Let’s start in Europe: The Italian (remember, 7th largest economy in the world, sometimes forgotten) FTSE MIB Index is about to retrace the

12

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 slumped over 2% down today, after absorbing Friday’s US job data. The index is down 101 points or 2.4% to 4141 points. In after hours trading, the market is at 4130 points waiting for the European market whilst the US has a day off today. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with the

0

Chart of the Day: China and commodities

A great chart today from Data Diary, exemplifying the relative performance between commodities and China. The former is represented by the CRB Commodities Index, the latter the Shanghai Composite Index (and in the background, the talked about but not relied upon Baltic Dry Index): Here are the raw charts for comparison: As Data Diary says:

2

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 closed sharply down today, after yesterday’s poor performance and reaction to overnight markets. The index is down 65 points or 1.5% to 4242 points. In after hours trading, the market is at 4230 points as we wait for US employment figures early Saturday morning (AEST). Asian markets experienced similar losses, with the

6

Chart of the Day

Today’s chart is the TED spread, mentioned in today’s links by House and Holes here. And no its not the TED forum of talks, presentation and ideas (a favourite), but the difference between the 3 month interest of US Treasury bills (T-Bills) and the 3 month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). The LIBOR is the

11

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 just closed in positive territory today, after a strong morning session. The index is up 11 points or 0.3% to 4307 points. In after hours trading, the market is slightly below 4300 points. Asian markets experienced stronger gains, following EU/US risk markets, with the Nikkei 225 closing up 1.1% at 9060 points

18

Chart of the Day: A history of tax

After yesterday’s interesting discussion, I thought I’d bring up another taxing (sic) chart today: The first chart shows the composition of state and Federal government tax of GDP. Startingly, at Federation, tax was only 5% of total GDP (in unrelated historical fact updates, at that time, Australia was also the wealthiest nation on the planet,

3

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 closed in positive territory today, with strong bids before the close after a mixed session in the morning. The index is up 27 points or 0.6% to 4296 points. In after hours trading, the market is slightly above 4300 points. Asian markets experienced similar gains, with the Nikkei 225 closing steady at

53

Chart of the Day: Taxes are all wrong

There is nothing more certain in life than death and taxes: today’s chart will focus on the latter. I consider taxation reform as the “only hope” for future productivity/microeconomic enhancements (as we’ve botched the macro as highlighted by House and Holes (and others here) regarding the MRRT and SWF), and these two charts, taken from

0

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 closed steady today, up only 6 points or 0.1% to 4269 after rallying in the morning to over 4300 points. Asian markets experienced more positive gains, with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.1% higher at 8953 points on the back of bad employment and retail sales numbers whilst the Hang Seng closed up

7

Chart of the Day

Today’s chart comes from SocGen via ZeroHedge, and is an analog comparison of Japanese, US and German 10 year bond yields: Remember, Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of over 200%, the Japanese Central Bank printing machine makes The Bernank look like a gold bug, yet bond yields are just above 1% and inflation

0

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 closed up strongly today, 63 points or 1.5% to 4263 points. Asian markets experienced similar gains, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.61% higher at 8851 points, and the Hang Seng up 1.57% at 19891 points. In other risk assets, the AUD increased further and is now above 1.06 against the USD, whilst

7

Chart of the Day

A Eurodollar breakout? The EUR/USD cross has finalised a descending triangle reversal pattern, but has surprised to the upside. This is a mixed signal at best, as the longer term weekly chart below shows significant resistance at 1.50 to the upside, and the usual status of the EUR is to weaken during a crisis (i.e

23

Bernanke Speech: no QE3 yet

Here is Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke’s full speech at Jackson Hole this morning – no formal announcement of QE3, but September meeting may bring about a “different” policy. The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy Good morning. As always, thanks are due to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

0

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 closed slightly lower today, down 12 points or 0.3% to exactly 4200 points, recovering most of this week’s losses. Asian markets experienced similar caution, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.29% higher at 8797 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.16% at 19720 points. In other risk assets, the AUD increased a little