Chris Becker

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Chart of the Day: Gold at $2000 AUD oz?

Today’s chart is inspired by a conversation with the The Bullion Baron’s whose blog has been successful in forecasting the price of gold – but in AUD instead of the oft-quoted price in USD. The dynamics between the USD, the AUD and gold are interesting, to say the least. We have seen how risk assets

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Trading Day: slipping away…

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 38 points or 0.9% lower to 4247 points today. In after hours trading, the index is down a few points, with Euro and US markets pointing to lower opens. Asian markets had a similar day, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 also down 0.9% to 8463 points, the Hang Seng losing

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Chart of the Day: (P)IIGS share prices

Today’s chart comes from Dr Ed Yardeni’s blog, comparing the performance of the (P)IIGS (Portgual, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) share market indexes (Portugal is not included) for the year so far: Greece is obviously the worst performer, down 48% with Italy not doing so bad, but still in bear market territory down over 20%. How

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Tackle risk for super returns

Yesterday SuperRatings issued its September results for Australian superannuation funds. September continued the poor performance of this year, with year to date returns for a balanced fund of minus 4.88%. Eighty percent of investors have their super in a balanced fund so the pain is widespread. It doesn’t get much better when we look at

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 19 points or 0.44% lower to 4285 points today, after reacting to the falls on EU and US risk markets last night. In after hours trading, the index is up a few points, with Euro and US markets pointing to mixed opens. Asian markets had a worse day, with

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Chart of the Day: Gold stalls

Like all other risk assets, gold (in USD per ounce) has rallied since the late October low, moving from $1600 to nearly $1800 an ounce. Today’s chart shows a likely repeat of the September rebound move from the August correction in gold, as it hits significant psychological resistance at $1800 USD per ounce: A technical

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 8 points or 0.2% higher to 4304 points today, after jumping in the morning session on reaction to the solid gains on EU and US markets on Friday night. In after hours trading, the index is slipping, with Euro and US markets pointing to slightly higher opens. Asian markets

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Chart of the Day: Bear market recap

After reading my report on the Aussie share market, as you still not sure what a secular bear market is? Would you be surprised that the US share markets are 11 years in to a secular bear market? (whereas our own is only 4 years old) Today’s chart comes from Doug Short’s weekly update of

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Next Week

With the ongoing now Italian led European crisis, and following the possible start of a new easing cycle in rates by the RBA, what’s coming up next week in terms of data, announcements and the like? Locally, Lending finance figures on Monday plus building approvals will be scrutinised and overseas, GDP and CPI figures from

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 52 points or 1.2% higher to 4296 points today, after a sideways morning session followed by strong bids in the afternoon. In after hours trading, the index has fallen 10 points, with Euro and US markets are pointing to modestly higher opens. Asian markets had a mixed but generally

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Chart of the Day: Crude divergence

Today’s chart plots the CRB Index, a weighted basket of 19 commodities, against the two major crude oil products, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and ICE Brent Crude. The horizontal orange line was the support area for the CRB during the minor correction throughout the 2006-07 lows, before the large bubble in commodity prices through 2008,

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 102 points or 2.4% lower to 4244 points today, reacting to Italian bond dramas overnight. In after hours trading, the index has fallen another 10 points, with Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly lower opens. Asian markets had a bad day, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down nearly

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 and Goldman

Continuining again our focus on the US S&P500 stock index, today’s chart come from Goldman Sachs (via Zero Hedge): This chart says a 1000 words, but for those not sure what’s going on, its seems the ca. 1.5% cut to US GDP coming next year (courtesy of austerity), has been priced in the consensus forward

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How safe is your super?

As the Great Moderation passes by and the Great Volatility takes its place, the investing world is glacially facing up to the fact that a return OF your money is just as important as a return ON your money. The past 30 years have allowed all and sundry to “fuggedaboutit” or “she’ll be right mate”

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 52 points or 1.2% higher to 4346 points today, probably on the back of the news that we had seen the back of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. In after hours trading, the index has given back some of these gains and is down 15 points, with Euro and

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Chart of the Day: S&P earnings record

Another chart on the US S&P500 stock index, is from Bespoke Investment Group (via Seeking Alpha). US stock markets report earnings quarterly, as opposed to half yearly in Australia, and with almost 90% of companies in the S&P500 having reported for the third quarter (Q3), Bespoke estimate earnings at $25.42, or on a year’s trailing basis

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 20 points or 0.48% higher to 4293 points today. In after hours trading, the index has given back on these gains and is down 20 points, with Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly lower or steady opens. Asian markets had a mixed day, with Japan’s Nikkei 225

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 and the Fed

Continuing our series of charts on the US S&P500 stock index, is today’s from Doug Short, plotting the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) intervention via the Fed Funds Rate and other programs that has arguably sustained asset prices. The intervention has been a series of programs, emergency at first (TARP, TALF etc), then a series

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Trading Day

An interesting day on the S&P/ASX 200 Index, closing down 7 points or 0.18% lower to 4272 points after being down more than half a percent all day. In after hours trading, the index is steady, with Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly higher or steady opens. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 vs CCI

Following on from Friday’s Chart of the Day, today’s chart from the McClellan Market Report (via Pragmatic Capitalism), shows how closely correlated commodities have become with the stock market: Note that the commodity index used is the old CRB index now called the CCI (which MacroBusiness reports on each morning through the Daily links post).

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index had a stonking day, closing up 109 points or 2.55% higher to 4281 points after positive leads from overnight markets. In after hours trading, the index is up 8 points, although Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly lower or mixed opens. Asian markets experienced similar gains, with Japan’s Nikkei

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Chart of the Day: S&P versus ASX

Today’s chart is from one of our regular readers The Avid Chartist, who has updated his study of the ASX200 and the S&P500, both denominated in USD. The chart plots the first day of the month from August 2007 through to October 2011. As Avid says very well: We Aussies are financially joined at the hip

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 12 points or 0.3% lower to 4171 points after positive leads from overnight markets. In after hours trading, the index is up 15 points, although Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly lower opens. Volatility continues to rule. Asian markets experienced broader losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down

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Chart of the Day: May 2008 redux?

Australian equity investors must always look abroad to the US to indicate the probabilities of future gains or losses on the ASX as binary risk markets continue to correlate (positively: equities, non-USD currencies, commodities; negatively: USD, USD bonds)to each other. For those who don’t understand or don’t want to believe the impact of world finance

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 48 points or 1.15% lower to 4184 points after the continuing turmoil in Europe. In after hours trading, the index is steady, with Euro and US markets pointing to positive gains from the heroic losses of last night. Asian markets experienced similar if mixed losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225

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RBA Chart Pack

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its monthly chart pack today. The Pack (downloadable as a PDF or in separate GIF images as below) has 16 categories covering the state of the Australian and world economies, via diverse metrics and observations. I’ve reorganised the charts as follows: Economic growth The major measure of

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Chart of the Day: US earnings revision

A great chart from Dr Ed Yardeni’s blog on the US S&P500 earnings bonanza (note that the US reports quarterly, Australian corporates half yearly). The chart is a weekly update of analyst’s average forecast of quarterly earnings. Note the substantial upward revisions to Q1 thru Q3, with an estimated looking through growth rate of some

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 65 points or 1.5% lower to 4232 points after shrugging of the rate cut announced by the RBA. In after hours trading, the index is down another 5 points, with Euro and US markets pointing to similar losses. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.45%

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Chart of the Day: Commodity price index

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) just released the preliminary estimates for October’s commodity price index: …the index fell by 3.9 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after falling by 1.4 per cent in September (revised). The largest contributors to the fall in October were declines in the estimated export prices

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 55 points or 1.3% lower to 4298 points after popping above positive territory at lunch. In after hours trading, the index is down another 15 points, with Euro and US markets pointing to similar losses. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.16% at 9036 points, the