Chris Becker

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 52 points or 1.2% higher to 4296 points today, after a sideways morning session followed by strong bids in the afternoon. In after hours trading, the index has fallen 10 points, with Euro and US markets are pointing to modestly higher opens. Asian markets had a mixed but generally

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Chart of the Day: Crude divergence

Today’s chart plots the CRB Index, a weighted basket of 19 commodities, against the two major crude oil products, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and ICE Brent Crude. The horizontal orange line was the support area for the CRB during the minor correction throughout the 2006-07 lows, before the large bubble in commodity prices through 2008,

10

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 102 points or 2.4% lower to 4244 points today, reacting to Italian bond dramas overnight. In after hours trading, the index has fallen another 10 points, with Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly lower opens. Asian markets had a bad day, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down nearly

2

Chart of the Day: S&P500 and Goldman

Continuining again our focus on the US S&P500 stock index, today’s chart come from Goldman Sachs (via Zero Hedge): This chart says a 1000 words, but for those not sure what’s going on, its seems the ca. 1.5% cut to US GDP coming next year (courtesy of austerity), has been priced in the consensus forward

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How safe is your super?

As the Great Moderation passes by and the Great Volatility takes its place, the investing world is glacially facing up to the fact that a return OF your money is just as important as a return ON your money. The past 30 years have allowed all and sundry to “fuggedaboutit” or “she’ll be right mate”

14

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 52 points or 1.2% higher to 4346 points today, probably on the back of the news that we had seen the back of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. In after hours trading, the index has given back some of these gains and is down 15 points, with Euro and

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Chart of the Day: S&P earnings record

Another chart on the US S&P500 stock index, is from Bespoke Investment Group (via Seeking Alpha). US stock markets report earnings quarterly, as opposed to half yearly in Australia, and with almost 90% of companies in the S&P500 having reported for the third quarter (Q3), Bespoke estimate earnings at $25.42, or on a year’s trailing basis

6

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 20 points or 0.48% higher to 4293 points today. In after hours trading, the index has given back on these gains and is down 20 points, with Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly lower or steady opens. Asian markets had a mixed day, with Japan’s Nikkei 225

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 and the Fed

Continuing our series of charts on the US S&P500 stock index, is today’s from Doug Short, plotting the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) intervention via the Fed Funds Rate and other programs that has arguably sustained asset prices. The intervention has been a series of programs, emergency at first (TARP, TALF etc), then a series

3

Trading Day

An interesting day on the S&P/ASX 200 Index, closing down 7 points or 0.18% lower to 4272 points after being down more than half a percent all day. In after hours trading, the index is steady, with Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly higher or steady opens. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with

3

Chart of the Day: S&P500 vs CCI

Following on from Friday’s Chart of the Day, today’s chart from the McClellan Market Report (via Pragmatic Capitalism), shows how closely correlated commodities have become with the stock market: Note that the commodity index used is the old CRB index now called the CCI (which MacroBusiness reports on each morning through the Daily links post).

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index had a stonking day, closing up 109 points or 2.55% higher to 4281 points after positive leads from overnight markets. In after hours trading, the index is up 8 points, although Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly lower or mixed opens. Asian markets experienced similar gains, with Japan’s Nikkei

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Chart of the Day: S&P versus ASX

Today’s chart is from one of our regular readers The Avid Chartist, who has updated his study of the ASX200 and the S&P500, both denominated in USD. The chart plots the first day of the month from August 2007 through to October 2011. As Avid says very well: We Aussies are financially joined at the hip

4

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 12 points or 0.3% lower to 4171 points after positive leads from overnight markets. In after hours trading, the index is up 15 points, although Euro and US markets are pointing to slightly lower opens. Volatility continues to rule. Asian markets experienced broader losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down

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Chart of the Day: May 2008 redux?

Australian equity investors must always look abroad to the US to indicate the probabilities of future gains or losses on the ASX as binary risk markets continue to correlate (positively: equities, non-USD currencies, commodities; negatively: USD, USD bonds)to each other. For those who don’t understand or don’t want to believe the impact of world finance

4

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 48 points or 1.15% lower to 4184 points after the continuing turmoil in Europe. In after hours trading, the index is steady, with Euro and US markets pointing to positive gains from the heroic losses of last night. Asian markets experienced similar if mixed losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225

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RBA Chart Pack

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its monthly chart pack today. The Pack (downloadable as a PDF or in separate GIF images as below) has 16 categories covering the state of the Australian and world economies, via diverse metrics and observations. I’ve reorganised the charts as follows: Economic growth The major measure of

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Chart of the Day: US earnings revision

A great chart from Dr Ed Yardeni’s blog on the US S&P500 earnings bonanza (note that the US reports quarterly, Australian corporates half yearly). The chart is a weekly update of analyst’s average forecast of quarterly earnings. Note the substantial upward revisions to Q1 thru Q3, with an estimated looking through growth rate of some

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 65 points or 1.5% lower to 4232 points after shrugging of the rate cut announced by the RBA. In after hours trading, the index is down another 5 points, with Euro and US markets pointing to similar losses. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.45%

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Chart of the Day: Commodity price index

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) just released the preliminary estimates for October’s commodity price index: …the index fell by 3.9 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after falling by 1.4 per cent in September (revised). The largest contributors to the fall in October were declines in the estimated export prices

20

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 55 points or 1.3% lower to 4298 points after popping above positive territory at lunch. In after hours trading, the index is down another 15 points, with Euro and US markets pointing to similar losses. Asian markets experienced similar losses, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.16% at 9036 points, the

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Chart of the Day: Don’t fly with me

The share price of Qantas (QAN) over the long term? Doesn’t fly with me as a good investment. Old saying – “don’t invest in airline whose competitors are government owned and cheap labour force” can be backed up by another saying – “don’t invest in company that requires gargantuan capital investment to generate below term

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Trading Day: bull trap?

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 5 points or 0.1% higher to 4353 points after a very solid open was sold off during the day. In after hours trading, the index is steady, with Euro and US markets pointing to slightly lower or steady opens after the frivolity of last night. Asian markets outperformed, with Japan’s

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Chart of the Day: Euro M1 uptick

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its monetary aggregrate data for September and it makes interesting reading after the Greek bailout package announced yesterday. As Delusional Economics forewarned in September, the narrow M1 money supply trend remains extremely weak: Although there has been a minute uptick in M1, M3 has also picked up, but

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March 2009 redux?

Time for some perspective – in equity markets around the world, the bulls are popping champagne and hysterically bidding up anything and everything (including iron ore stocks whilst iron ore is crashing), whilst the bears have gone back into hibernation, with sore bottoms and damaged pride. The realists observe that this volatility and switch between

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Trading Day: Bedlam and Fear

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 105 points or 2.4% higher to 4348 points after eventually opening from the bedlam at the open and absorbing the news of a “hellish” deal involving a 50% haircut on Greek bonds to European banks. In after hours trading, the index has climbed a further 20 points, with Euro and

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NAB nabs market share

The National Australia Bank (NAB) has released details of a record result today, overshadowed by the glitches on the ASX. The basic summary of the result is thus: 19.2% increase in cash profit to $5.5 billion 5.7% increase in revenue 23.6% increase NPAT of $5.2 billion 2.34% to 2.17% decrease in Net Interest Margin (NIM)

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ASX halts trading (updated)

UPDATE 4: Trading has resumed at 2PM (AEDST) , with the market up 2% above 4300 points. UPDATE 3: ASX says trading will go pre-open at 1.40PM and resume from 2PM (AEDST) UPDATE 2: ASX says trading will likely resume from 12.55 onwards. Maybe. UPDATE 1: ASX says some trading has been resumed – doesn’t

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Chart of the Day: Equity Twilight Zone

Today’s chart comes from my favourite trader, Peter L.Brandt, and explains how the US S&P500 – the equity market that equity markets follow – is stuck “between a rock and a hard place”. As he explains the technicals: the market is arguably a double bottom. The other indexes do not show a similar pattern, but

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Trading Day: CPI walking

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up 14 points or 0.3% to 4242 points after dropping sharply in the morning session following broad losses on US and Euro markets on Tuesday night. In after hours trading, the index has slipped 20 points, but Euro and US markets are pointing to mixed opens. Asian markets behaved in